Reaching an agreement next year in Paris that reflects "differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities" of each nation. Developed countries will provide financial support to "vulnerable" developing nations. And countries will set targets that go beyond their "current undertaking" without any accountability.
The talks in Paris next year will fail to produce a plan that will make any difference despite the “historic” climate agreement between President Barack Obama of the United States and President Xi Jinping of China announced last month. If you will recall the United States promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (primarily carbon dioxide, CO2) 26-28% from 2005 levels by 2025. This was an increase from the previously promised reduction made by President Obama for the United States to reduce CO2 emissions 17% by 2020 and 83 % by 2050. To achieve this goal the United States will have to reduce their standard of living and quality of life even with increases in efficiency of electrical production and gas mileage it cannot be accomplished any other way given the current and foreseeable technology . This would require approximately doubling annual CO2 reductions from 1.2% from 2005-2020 to 2.3-2.8 % from 2020-2025.
The climate talks in Paris next year will fail to produce a meaningful plan to reduce world CO2 emissions because it can’t be done. The developing world will not cap their greenhouse gas emissions or economic growth while they are still poor. The developed world no longer represents the lion’s share of CO2 emissions. In 1990’s when the Kyoto Treaty was signed by the European Union, Japan and Canada, the developed world represented 72% of global CO2 emissions from fuel, now they represent about 43% and falling. Europe’s birth rate has plummeted and Europe’s population (including Russia and Eastern Europe) of 740 million is projected to decrease to 726 million by 2050. The population of the United States is projected to grow from about 316 million today to 440 million by 2050.
The only way to improve the standard of living and quality of life of their citizens is through the use of energy, for industry, transportation, lighting, water treatment and delivery, sewage treatment, growing food everything depends on energy most of which comes from fossil fuels. Even with increasing efficiency more carbon will have to be burnt to raise the standard of living of the developing world.
The world carbon emissions are growing each year faster than the developed nations can cut them even if we had the will to reduce our living standards to accomplish that. In addition, the developed world is growing older and will not have the financial resources to meet the promises that were made in their national social contracts. We may be rationing healthcare along with electricity and be unable to provide financial support to "vulnerable" developing nations. The United States will face a trade off of reducing living standards even further or missing the President's goals. .