Sea level is rising. The climate scientists tell us that we passed the tipping point for climate change long ago. Forty-five percent of the world’s population lives within coastal zones. In the United States over half of the population lives within cities and suburbs build within or adjacent to these estuaries. Estuaries occur in the partly enclosed coastal regions where rivers meet the sea. Estuaries are the mixing zone where the fresh water and sediments from rivers meets the seawater and tidal forces.
In nature, estuaries and barrier islands provide protection for the mainland against flooding; but we continue to expand our coastal cities and suburbs, building within the estuaries that that were intended by nature to flood to protect the inland areas. Since the early 2000’s we have all watched on our TV’s, phones or computers as Katrina inundated New Orleans followed by Rita, Gustav, and Ike; Sandy, Irene and Ida brought flooding to New York; and Hurricane Harvey that brought 30 inches of rain and epic flooding in Houston, Texas not to mention the damage wrought as it came up the coast.
We need to adapt to and plan for the changing climate, rising sea levels, storm surge, flooding and land loss in the coastal region. One of the more vulnerable areas is the coastal region of Louisiana. Since 1930 Louisiana has lost 1,900 square miles of land to the Gulf of Mexico to these forces of nature. From 2004 through 2008 alone, more than 300 square miles of marshland were lost to Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike which made the need to improve Louisiana’s hurricane protection systems and natural estuaries obvious.
In December 2005, meeting in a special session to address recovery issues confronting Louisiana following Katrina and Rita, the Louisiana Legislature created the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA). In the subsequent years the CPRA would form partnerships to enhance its effectiveness and abilities. One of the CPRA’s partners is the Water Institute of the Gulf, a not-for-profit, non-government, independent and collaborative research center founded in 2011. In its own partnerships the Water Institute is developing tools for communities.
When storm surge and extreme rainfall events or hurricane inundate coastal areas, it’s not just homes and businesses that receive damage. Critical facilities such as fire stations, hospitals, and emergency response facilities that are crucial to a community’s ability to respond are at risk as well. Additionally, the protection of essential facilities such as government offices, banks, and schools are vital components of a community’s ability to recover, both short term or long term. The Water Institute along with federal and state agency partners, received funding in 2016 from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to identify and evaluate the vulnerability of critical and essential facilities in south Lafourche Parish and Morgan City Louisiana to serve as pilot studies.
This study looked at forecast flood levels in both locations utilizing a model the institute developed to predict flood zones. The base case was the flooding predicted from a 100-year storm event under current environmental conditions. The impacts of flooding on critical and essential facilities under current conditions were then compared to three sea level rise scenarios included in the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan over three time periods of 10, 25, and 50 years to provide state and local officials with tool that can be used to prioritize locations and facilities requiring nonstructural protection.
By comparing these potential flood maps to current land use cover it is possible to see where the residents and facilities facing the greatest risk are located. This information is also combined with modeled storm surge data developed for Louisiana’s 2017 Coastal Master Plan, record research, and on-the-ground observations, to assemble a picture of not only the flood risk that communities face now, but what they could face into the future. This is a first step in planning for climate change and sea level rise. Louisiana is to be applauded for planning for the future that is going to happen.
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