WSSC Opens Duckett Reservoir in Laurel

In time for Labor Day weekend Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission (WSSC) lifted the recreational water contact health advisory for their T. Howard Duckett Reservoir in Laurel. WSSC reports they performed extensive monitoring and testing and found that algal concentrations had fallen below advisory thresholds,

The advisory was put in place on August 21 when WSSC announced that they had detected high concentrations of blue-green algae in the T. Howard Duckett and Triadelphia Reservoirs.  The recreational water contact health advisory remains in effect for the Triadelphia Reservoir.

Algae blooms also called dead zones form in summers when higher temperatures reduce the oxygen holding capacity of the water, the air is still, and especially in years of heavy rains. Only certain species of blue-green algae produce microcystine or cyanobacteria toxins, the toxic algae.  Toxic algae can lead to the poisoning of fish, shellfish, birds, livestock, domestic pets and other aquatic organisms that can lead to human health impact from eating fish or shellfish exposed to toxins as well as drinking water contaminated by toxins.

World Carbon Dioxide Levels Will Continue to Rise

On Earth Day in 2016 leaders from more than 175 countries gathered at the United Nations in New York City to sign the Paris Climate Accord that was negotiated the previous winter in Paris that was intended to put the nations on a course to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel. The signing was a hopeful moment. Since then, the United States has announced its intension to withdraw from the Paris Accord; and it has become clear that carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion continue to climb.

from EIA

Even if every nation meets their pledge made in the Paris Climate Accord, the reductions promised (if there are even actual reductions) are not enough to maintain global temperatures within 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. This 2 degree limit is what scientists believe will prevent the drowning of many coastal cities, the disruption of agricultural climates and reductions in drinking water availability. However the Island nations had pushed for a lower limit believing that a temperature rise of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels would not be enough to save them. Thus, an aspirational goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was included in the agreement.

The reason the Paris Climate Accord will fail is that neither China nor India representing about a third of world greenhouse gas emissions have committed to any reductions. Instead they are projecting when their greenhouse gas emissions will peak and that is in more than a decade. To limit the increase in global mean temperature to below 2°C and “pursue efforts” to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C as stated in the Paris agreement, man-made emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) must reach zero by 2050.  Based on a recently published article “Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5°C climate target,” we are not going to make it.

The authors of the article argue that the continued building of fossil-fuel burning energy infrastructure implies “committed” future CO2 emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure and power plants of 846 gigatonnes of CO2 –more than the entire CO2 budget that remains. Committed emission from existing power plants and infrastructure and proposed power plants assumes that all plants will be operated as they have been historically and for their planned 40 year lifetime and 53% utilization rate. According to the authors, China accounts for 41% of the committed future CO2 emissions, India 9%, the United States 9% and the European Union 7%. Ultimately, as the authors point out, the lifetime operation will depend on the relative costs of competing technologies and local regulation. (The authors have kindly posted the entire article for free at this link.)

The U.S. Engergy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions declined by 861 million tonnes (14%) from 2005 to 2017 . EIA projects that U. S. CO2 emissions will rise 1.8%, from 5,143 million metric tons in 2017 to 5,237 million tonnes in 2018, then remain virtually unchanged in 2019. The EIA is projecting that 2019 U.S., energy-related CO2 emissions will be about 13% lower than 2005 levels. Meanwhile, the EIA reports that global CO2 emissions grew 21% from 2005 to 2017 and will continue to rise reaching 23% above 2005 levels in 2019.

Meanwhile, according to the ongoing temperature analysis conducted by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8° Celsius (1.4° Fahrenheit) since 1880. Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade. Temperatures have not increased evenly over the globe. Average temperatures have risen 1.4°C, but has varied across the regions. While Alaska and some Western states have led the way, the Southeastern United States has seen far less temperature change 1-1.2°C. In Alaska, average temperatures have increased by 2.3°C since 1970. Temperatures in New Mexico, New Jersey, Delaware, Arizona, and Utah have risen by at least 1.7°C since 1970.

Toxic Algae found in WSSC Reservoirs

August is just getting worse for Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission (WSSC). In addition to the 90 water main breaks month to date- double the rate last August, more than 5 million gallons of untreated sewage released to Broad Creek earlier this month and now, WSSC found toxic algae in their reservoirs.

Last week WSSC announced that they had detected high concentrations of blue-green algae in the T. Howard Duckett and Triadelphia Reservoirs.  Algae blooms also called dead zones form in summers when higher temperatures reduce the oxygen holding capacity of the water, the air is still and especially in years of heavy rains that carry excess nutrient pollution from cities, suburban lawns and farms. The excess nutrient pollution combined with mild weather encourages the explosive growth of algae fed by excessive nutrient pollution.

Only certain species of blue-green algae form the toxin, for reasons that aren't fully understood. Toxic algae blooms, the ones that contain microcystis, a type of blue-green algae, produce microcystine or cyanobacteria toxins, that can lead to the poisoning of fish, shellfish, birds, livestock, domestic pets and other aquatic organisms that can lead to human health impact from eating fish or shellfish exposed to toxins as well as drinking water contaminated by toxins.

Both reservoirs that have been impacted with the toxic blue-green algae are located along the Patuxent River, and serve as drinking water sources for WSSC and recreational areas for hiking, fishing and boating. WSSC emphasizes that their drinking water has not been affected and continues to meet all Safe Drinking Water Act standards. WSSC is closely monitoring water quality conditions at its Patuxent Water Filtration Plant.

WSSC’s Triadelphia Reservoir, this area is not open to the public at this time, it has been closed due to ongoing dam work. All recreation areas, boat ramps and public access to this reservoir are closed.

Visitors to WSSC’s Duckett Reservoir should do the following:

• Avoid all water contact. If water contact occurs, rinse off immediately with clean water.
• Do not allow pets to swim in or drink the water (prohibited at all times by WSSC watershed regulations). Keep children and pets away from the water. Toxic algae can stink, smelling nauseating to people, but can be attractive to animals like dogs.
• Do not consume fish livers or digestive organs from fish caught in the reservoir. If a fish is caught in the reservoir, wash fillets thoroughly with drinking water, properly clean fish by removing skin and discarding all internal organs, and cooking fish to the proper temperature.
• If you, your kids or your animals experience symptoms after being near an algae bloom, seek immediate medical/veterinarian care. Symptoms: Human contact with Toxic Algae can cause rashes, stomach upset, diarrhea and vomiting. Dogs can show symptoms including staggering, drooling, breathing difficulty, convulsions or seizures.

WSSC permit holders at the Duckett Reservoir are allowed to use the picnic areas and hike on designated trails. Signs will be posted throughout both reservoirs to make visitors aware of this water contact health advisory. For safety, you should leave your pets at home and possible think of another activity. In the event that you, your pet, or someone you know has contacted or ingested water at either reservoir, WSSC suggests you call your local Health Department:

• Montgomery County: 240-777-0311 (Montgomery County 311)
• Prince George’s County: 301-883-4748 (Prince George’s County 311)
• Howard County: 410-313-1773 (Community Hygiene Department)

Rural Crescent Proposals-You Can Still Comment

The comment period for the Alternatives for the Rural Crescent remains open, and the Prince William Planning Office asks that all comments be in by August 31st 2019 to give the Planning Office enough time to respond to all comments. The Planning Office will generate their plan for the Rural Crescent and make a community presentation on September 24th 2019. After that there will be a Planning Commission public hearing and a Board of County Supervisors public hearing at dates to be determined. The Board of Supervisors will make the final decision about the fate of the Rural Crescent.

Prince William Citizen involvement in developing all aspects of the 2040 Comprehensive Plan is important. It will impact your future. Share your thoughts, ideas, and suggestions with the Planning Office by:

• Submitting comments on the PLANNING COMMENT FORM. (Note that there is no limit on the length of your comment. The comment box will let you type as much as you want. )
• Emailing the Planning Office at planning@pwcgov.org
• Call the Planning Office at 703-792-7615

Now is your time to comment you can real about all the proposals on the Prince William Planning Office website or on my Blog.  Changing the character of the Rural Area to include cluster development houses clustered in “transition areas” or even increasing the current population could impact water availability to the existing residents and impact base flow to our rivers. Bringing in public water and sewer connections even if they are limited to cluster development or along what they called the transition area, such expansion may exceed the capacity of the current water supply systems and require water and sewer infrastructure expansion. Clustered properties cannot rely on well and septic- they are simply too close together, clustered development will be connected to public water supplied by Prince William Service Authority.

Currently, public water in the areas adjacent to the Rural Crescent is supplied by a combination of groundwater wells and surface water supply that is purchased from Fairfax Water and Lake Manassas. There is a cost to purchase additional capacity from Fairfax Water and that water is not unlimited. Based on the PW Service Authority study of the Evergreen water system, that system cannot provide adequate water to withstand a leak or to have adequate water to recover from a problem, let alone provide supply to more homes. In addition, piping and pumps will have to carry water from its source to any new development. This would force the County to find additional sources of water at greater incremental cost to all rate payers and such sources may not even be available. In addition, water mains and sewage piping are costly not only to build, but also to maintain.

In 2018 Virginia Legislature amended the comprehensive planning process (§§ 15.2-2223 and 15.2-2224 of the Code of Virginia ) to include planning for the continued availability, quality and sustainability of groundwater and surface water resources on a County level. State law now requires that the County plan to have good quality water for all its residents present and future in the Comprehensive Plan. The proposals by the Planning Office do not address this issue.

The right of existing property owners to their water is primary and valuable and should not be compromised or impaired. It is essential if the Prince William County Planning Office to study the impact of the proposals on water resources before making decisions that will result in Prince William County having inadequate water for all its residents in the future.

Toxic Algae Blooms found in Virginia

This month the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) announced that the toxic algae responsible for several dog deaths in southeast has been found in Virginia. The dogs had been swimming and or drinking from ponds that were infested with blue green algae and died of liver failure. Now that toxic algae has been found in several locations in Virginia.

Toxic blue green algae has been found in the Upper and Middle Pamunkey Branches as well as the Upper and Middle North Anna Branches of Lake Anna in Orange, Louisa and Spotsylvania counties. The VDH announced that these areas are “experiencing a harmful algal bloom (HAB) and advised the public to avoid contact with the lake in these areas until algae concentrations return to acceptable levels. Other areas of Virginia have reported non-toxic algae blooms and several crowd sourced reports of algae of green scum have been reported in recent days.

Algae blooms also called harmful algal bloom (HAB) or dead zones form in summers when higher temperatures reduce the oxygen holding capacity of the water, the air is still and especially in years of heavy rains that carry excess nutrient pollution from cities, suburban lawns and farms. The excess nutrient pollution combined with mild weather encourages the explosive growth of algae fed by excessive nutrient pollution.

Not all algal blooms are toxic or hazardous. Only certain species of blue-green algae form the toxin, for reasons that aren't fully understood. Toxic bacteria were not a problem until the 21st century, though algae blooms have been a problem on Lake Erie, the Gulf of Mexico, the Chesapeake Bay and other areas for over half a century. Only algae that contains microcystine or cyanobacteria, a toxin produced by microcystis, a type of blue-green algae that spreads in the summer algae bloom are hazardous.

In the 21st century toxic or hazardous algal blooms have become a global concern in lakes, rivers and oceans. They occur when algae grow out of control when there are favorable environmental conditions. Hazardous algal blooms, the ones that contain microcystis a type of blue-green algae produce Microcystine or cyanobacteria toxins, that can lead to the poisoning of fish, shellfish, birds, livestock, domestic pets and other aquatic organisms that can lead to human health impact from eating fish or shellfish exposed to toxins as well as drinking water contaminated by toxins.

Virginia Tech Extension and the Virginia Department of Health advise:

•         Avoid contact with any area of a lake or pond where water is green or an advisory sign is posted. WHEN IN DOUBT, STAY OUT!
•         Waters that are discolored or have foam, scums or mats that are green or blueish-green should be avoided because they likely contain toxins.  Harmful algae can also be brown or red, and can resemble paint floating on the water.  Toxic algae can stink, smelling nauseating to people, but can be attractive to animals like dogs.
•         Do not allow children or pets to drink from natural bodies of water.
•         Keep children and pets out of the areas experiencing a harmful algae bloom and quickly wash them off with plenty of fresh, clean water after coming into contact with algae scum or bloom water.
•         If you, your kids or your animals experience symptoms after swimming in or near an algal bloom, seek immediate medical/veterinarian care.
•         Symptoms: Human contact with HABs can cause rashes, stomach upset, diarrhea and vomiting.  Dogs can show symptoms including staggering, drooling, breathing difficulty, convulsions or seizures.
•         To ensure fish fillets are safe to eat, properly clean fish by removing skin and discarding all internal organs, and cooking fish to the proper temperature.
•         If you suspect you experienced health-related effects following exposure to a bloom, contact the Virginia Harmful Algal Bloom Hotline at 1-888-238-6154.

To learn more about harmful algae blooms, see the map, or to report an algae bloom or fish kill visit www.SwimHealthyVA.com

WSSC Spills More than 5 million gallons of Sewage

August is shaping up to be a tough month for Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission (WSSC). There have been thirty water main breaks in less than two weeks, but the big new is a massive raw sewage spill over this past weekend. The troubles began at the Broad Creek Wastewater Pumping Station at 10315 Livingston Road, Ft Washington, Md. At 11:12 am on Friday sewage began flowing into the creek. The overflow continued for just over 12 hours and WSSC estimated that 5.22 million gallons of untreated sewage entered Broad Creek.

WSSC reports that an investigation will be conducted to determine the cause of the overflow, but they believe a pipe buried approximately 30-feet deep at the Broad Creek Wastewater Pumping Station may have failed. WSSC notified the Maryland Department of the Environment and the Prince George’s County Health Department. Crews have cleaned up the impacted area around the station and applied lime to mitigate the odor. Sixteen signs were posted warning residents about the overflow and alerting them to avoid the area. WSSC is confident that sewer spill, euphemistically called an “overflow” will not affect the drinking water.

WSSC has more than 5,500 miles of sewer mains throughout its service area. Sewer overflows or the release of untreated sewage at the Broad Creek Wastewater Pumping Station in Ft Washington and the Piscataway Plant are a familiar story. WSSC is working throughout Montgomery County performing sewer repairs and maintenance to address aging sewer infrastructure. WSSC has developed a multi-year program called The Sewer Repair, Replacement, and Rehabilitation (SR3) Program.

The SR3 Program is the result of a Consent Decree entered into by WSSC, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE), and four (4) local citizens’ groups. WSSC is working to repair and replace parts of the sewer system to restore pipe and manhole conditions. With these improvements, less groundwater will infiltrate into pipes through cracks. As a result, there will be fewer sewer overflows into our waterways enhancing the protection of both public health and the environment, while improving service to WSSC’s customers. WSSC has more than 5,500 miles of sewer mains throughout its service area.

This pipe break last week and the growing number of drinking water and sewage breaks in the past several of years serves to highlight the issue of aging infrastructure in the WSSC’s system and America. WSSC is in the middle of capital projects to replace 2,000 miles each of sewer and water mains, but they have thousands of miles of pipe to address so rehabilitation of the system will be slow.

Methane Leaks in Cities Found to be Significant

According to the U.S. EPA, methane is the second most prevalent greenhouse gas and accounts for about 10% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. However, methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide though it survives in the atmosphere a shorter time. Methane is emitted by natural sources such as wetlands and the breakdown of organic material, as well as human activities such as, sewage treatment, landfills, leakage from natural gas systems and the raising of livestock.

In the past most of the effort in improving methane emission estimates has targeted oil- and natural gas-production, because the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) had estimated that to be the source of most of the leakage from natural gas. Now, a new NOAA and University of Michigan study using an instrumented airplane has found unexpectedly large emissions over five major cities along the East Coast. These cities have natural gas distribution systems and deliver natural gas to households.

The NOAA & UM study directly measured emissions coming from these five cities. The amount of methane measured was much larger than had been estimated. The work was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The methods used allowed scientists to quantify the total amount of methane coming from the city; and the ratio of ethane to methane to calculate how much methane was due to natural gas leakage, and found 10 times the amount of methane previously estimated by the EPA as coming from natural gas.

Ethane is a component of natural gas, but is not generated by landfill, and sewage. Gas utilities have precise measurements of how much ethane is in the gas they deliver. So it’s useful as a tracer for separating emissions coming from fossil fuel from those coming from landfills. Gas distribution companies are well aware of the leaks in the system. The companies calculate the difference between the gas pumped into the distribution system and what is metered at the end user. This is referred to as "lost and unaccounted-for" gas is often a surcharge on customer bills. These leaks are wasteful, dangerous and a significant source of greenhouse gas released into the environment. Distribution companies prioritize finding and fixing leaks likely to be explosion hazards, where gas is collecting and concentrating and ignore the small losses from deteriorating iron pipe, which turns out to be significant.

While there have been a handful of other studies of urban areas scattered around the country, there has been a real lack of data in this area. Previously, Robert B. Jackson, formerly of Duke University and now at Stanford, Nathan Phillips, of Boston University Department of Earth and Environment and Robert Ackley of Gas Safety Inc., and Eric Crosson of Picarro Inc., who performed a study of gas leaks in Boston and Washington DC in 2012 and 2013.

They mapped the gas leaks under the city using a new, high-precision methane analyzer provided by Picarro installed in a GPS-equipped car. In Boston they drove all 785 road miles within city limits, and discovered 3,356 leaks. The leaks were found to be associated with old cast-iron underground pipes, rather than neighborhood socioeconomic indicators. Levels of methane in the surface air on Boston’s streets exceeded 15 times the normal atmospheric background value. Similar results were found in Washington DC.

The current NOAA study sampled one of the largest metropolitan megaplexes, home to about 12% of the US population. According to lead author Genevieve Plant, of the University of Michigan. “The amount of natural gas that flows into these older cities is very large.... We found methane emissions in the five largest cities that we sampled are ... about double what the EPA estimates for the total emissions.”

Based on this research detecting and reducing gas leaks are critical for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving air quality and consumer safety, and saving consumers money. In addition to the explosion hazard, natural gas also poses a major environmental threat: Methane, the primary ingredient of natural gas, is a powerful greenhouse gas that degrades air quality. Leaks in the United States are reported to contribute to $3 billion of lost and unaccounted for natural gas each year. Repairing our infrastructure could significantly reduce these releases.

Virginia Team Wins International Envirothon

A team of students from Jamestown High School in James City County placed first overall at the 2019 National Conservation Foundation Envirothon (Envirothon) held at North Carolina State University last week. The Jamestown High School beat 52 other teams from the United States, Canada and China to win $15,000 in scholarships sponsored by Smithfield Foods. The Jamestown High School team won the 2019 Virginia Dominion Energy Envirothon state competition in May, and placed first on the Forestry station component of the event in the international competition.

Envirothon is an international environmental and natural resources high school competition held annually. This year 53 teams of students from across the United States, Canada and China in a week-long competition demonstrated their knowledge on soils and land use, aquatic ecology, forestry and wildlife management through written tests and hands on interactive stations. The teams also prepared oral presentations on this year’s current issue, “Agriculture and the Environment: Knowledge and Technology to Feed the World.”

The top three scoring teams were Virginia placed first, North Carolina placed second and Pennsylvania placed third. All three teams received cash prizes in the form of scholarships sponsored by Smithfield Foods, the world’s largest pork producer and processor. “Smithfield Foods is proud to support the NCF-Envirothon competition and award the next generation of natural resource professionals,” said Bill Gill, assistant vice president of sustainability for Smithfield Foods. “The dedication, passion and expertise of these high-schoolers is inspiring.”

The winning team members were:

     

• Rachel Smith
• Anna Song
• Audrey Root
• Lisa Small
• Joseph Kang

The team was coached by :

     

• Rebecca Elton
• Amanda Mullane
• Charlie Dubay
• Scott Thomas

In Virginia the Envirothon is run by the Virginia Association of Soil and Water Conservation Districts and Virginia’s 47 local Soil and Water Conservation Districts. Each spring there are a series of regional competitions held by the Soil and Water Conservation Districts with help from our volunteers. For the last seven years Dominion Energy has been the primary sponsor of Virginia’s local, regional and statewide Envirothon with annual funding provided by its Dominion Energy Charitable Foundation. The Jamestown High School team is supported locally by the Colonial Soil & Water Conservation District.

Future of the Rural Crescent: Water, Costs, Fairness

Last week the Prince William County Planning Office held a public outreach meeting to a present the options that they are considering for the fate of the Rural Crescent. The comment period for the Alternatives for the Rural Crescent ends on August 16^th 2019. You have a very narrow time frame to get your comments in and have the Planning Office hear your concerns. I have listed the options below with my concerns. I am shocked that after consideration I think the best options is PDRwith increase of minimum lot size of A-1.

Though this option would require the county to raise what the Development Office estimates to be between $50,000,000-$114,660,000 to purchase the development rights of the remaining open space and $137,000,000 to outright purchase the 10,000,000 recommended in the Rural Preservation Study, it would not necessarily be the most expensive option to the county. All the other options will result in a need for more infrastructure: water, sewer, road, schools, and County services that also have significant upfront costs- a foot of water main or sewer main costs about $300 and a mile cost about $1,600,000. There is a large capital cost to expand capacity of the H.L. Mooney Advanced Water Reclamation Facility and Upper Occoquan Service Authority (UOSA). There is a capital cost to purchase additional capacity from Fairfax Water and that water is not unlimited.

In the PDR option viewsheds and the current feel of the rural area would be maintained and truly public land would be increased. The PDR option would not increase the number of houses, students in our schools nor the number of transportation daily trips in the coming years. There would be no additional need for County services or infrastructure. No additional need for teachers and schools and the capital and carrying costs associated with increased population.  There would be no impact on sustainability and availability of groundwater to the existing property owners.

Prince William County Planning Office Alternatives for the Rural Area:

A-10 : 10-acre lots and rural cluster with existing density and no sewer. This is the existing policy. In the coming years this will result in an additional 2,783 houses being built, and additional 1,813 students in our schools, an additional 28,108 transportation daily trips and no open space preserved. If we continue on this path the remaining rural areas will eventually be cut up into 10 acre parcels with McMansions on each. There will be more traffic and a need for additional schools and the expansion of and widening of roads.

RC-A: Rural cluster with existing density and sewer. This alternative provides land owners the “right” to extend sewer to their property while maintaining existing planned density levels. It would allow development to be clustered on a corner of a property in order to preserve greenspace and a conservation easement to be placed on the remainder of the land. In the coming years this will result in an additional 2,783 houses being built, and additional 1,813 students in our schools, an additional 28,118 transportation daily trips and 8,145 acres of open space preserved. This limits the amount of impervious surface constructed which may impact groundwater recharge less than option A-10.

RC-B Rural Cluster with increased density and sewer. This alternative provides land owners the “right” to extend sewer to their property while almost doubling planned density levels. It would allow development to be clustered on a corner of a property in order to preserve greenspace and a conservation easement to be placed on the remainder of the land. In the coming years this will result in an additional 5,067 houses being built, and additional 3,303 students in our schools, an additional 51,177 transportation daily trips and 8,145 acres of open space preserved. The impact on sustainability and availability of groundwater for this has not been studied, but there would be an increased demand on groundwater and a reduction in recharge. Both of the rural cluster options will result in a need for more infrastructure: water, sewer, road, schools, and County services. While there would be a preservation of some of the open areas, agricultural parcels will continue to be chopped up.

TDR-A: Transfer of development rights using density based on rural character areas of the rural preservation study. In a TDR program a landowner sells his or her development rights to a developer. This alternative identifies “sending areas” where the rights can be purchased and receiving areas where higher density cluster development will be built. This version of the TDR will have the density in the receiving areas of one house per 1.5 acres. In the coming years this will result in an additional 2,643 houses being built, and additional 1,723 students in our schools, an additional 26,694 transportation daily trips and 23,889 acres of open space preserved. The impact on sustainability and availability of groundwater for this has not been studied, but this does not increase the impervious surface area in the sending areas.

TDR-B: Transfer of development rights using density base on long range land use from the 1981 comprehensive plan. In a TDR program a landowner sells his or her development rights to a developer. This alternative identifies “sending areas” where the rights can be purchased and receiving areas where higher density cluster development will be built. The basis for the number of rights allotted to land will be based on the number of houses that could have been developed under the 1981 Comprehensive plan. This version does not treat the landowners of the Rural Area equally, but makes land in what was called the “rural residential area” 39 years ago much more valuable.  This option would increase the density of impervious surfaces and housing adjacent to current A-1 housing in the northern portion of the Rural Crescent significantly. The impact to groundwater recharge would be significant.  This alternative will also have the density in the receiving areas of one house per 0.4 acres. In the coming years this will result in an additional 10,390 houses being built, and additional 6,773 students in our schools predominately in the northern portion of the Rural Crescent;  an additional 104,939 transportation daily trips and only 23,176 acres of open space preserved. Though there would be preservation of open areas this would only be in Nokesville, the incentive would be to convert all donor lands to farm wineries and breweries. The receiving areas would become a high density development ribbon that runs from one end of the “Rural Area” to the other. This would create constant traffic issues on what are currently in many cases unlit rural roads. Residents would no longer experience the view sheds as their view would be blocked by the wider developed road and the super density zone. It would all appear as Fairfax style subdivision. This option will result in a need for more infrastructure: water, sewer, road, schools, and County services. The impact on sustainability and availability of groundwater for this has not been studied, but this creates a high density area of impervious surfaces around the entire Rural Area which could significantly impact the wells of existing residents. In addition, this increases the demand for public water which is also limited.

PDR: PDR with increase of minimum lot size of A-1. In this alternative, Prince William County would purchase the development rights of lots larger than 20 acres and place an easement for farming and/or open space on the land. Though the county would not use eminent domain, the county is using coercion by increasing the minimum lot size. This option uses public money to purchase the development rights. In this option, viewsheds and the current feel of the rural area would be maintained and public land would be increased. The PDR option would not increase the number of houses, students in our schools nor the number of transportation daily trips in the coming years. There would be no additional need for County services or infrastructure. No additional need for teachers and schools and the capital and carrying costs associated with increased population.  There would be no impact on sustainability and availability of groundwater.

AAOD: Agritourism and Arts Overlay District. This alternative can be used to complement other options. The objective would be to allow more flexibility to establish a rural and agrarian area with agritourism and art-related businesses. While this will increase economic vitality, the water demands from breweries and wineries needs to be carefully considered. Also, the operation of alcohol selling venues along unlit rural roads must carefully be considered before allowing an unlimited number of breweries and wineries that require massive amounts of water.

LUV: Land use valuation. Since 1972 Virginia has allowed the assessed value of productive agricultural land to be based on its use rather than market value. This option envisions tweaking the aspects of this program that the county controls- reducing the minimum acreage for agricultural, forested and open land. The changes that could be made would be minor to the overall tax base, but could make farming slightly more favorable to the farmer.  

Changing the character of the Rural Area to include cluster development houses clustered in “transition areas” or even increasing the current population could impact water availability to the existing residents and impact base flow to our rivers. Bringing in public water and sewer connections even if they are limited to cluster development or along what they called the transition area, such expansion may exceed the capacity of the current water supply systems and require water and sewer infrastructure expansion. Clustered properties cannot rely on well and septic- they are simply too close together, clustered development will be connected to public water supplied by Prince William Service Authority.

Currently, public water in the areas adjacent to the Rural Crescent is supplied by a combination of groundwater wells and surface water supply that is purchased from Fairfax Water and Lake Manassas. There is a cost to purchase additional capacity from Fairfax Water and that water is not unlimited. Based on the PW Service Authority study of the Evergreen water system, that system cannot provide adequate water to withstand a leak or to have adequate water to recover from a problem, let alone provide supply to more homes. In addition, piping and pumps will have to carry water from its source to any new development. This would force the County to find additional sources of water at greater incremental cost to all rate payers and such sources may not even be available. In addition, water mains and sewage piping are costly not only to build, but also to maintain.

For more than two centuries the waters of the Potomac seemed unlimited. It is not, Fairfax Water, Loudoun Water, WSSC, and the Washington Aqueduct all share the waters of the Potomac. The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, ICPRB, manages the Potomac River allocation of the regional water supply during times of low flow and plan for future water supply. The Washington DC region has reached the point in population density and development that during times of drought, natural flows on the Potomac are not always sufficient to allow water withdrawals by the utilities (including power generation which takes an awesome amount of water) while still maintaining a minimum flow in the river for sustaining aquatic resources.

In 2018 Virginia Legislature amended the comprehensive planning process (§§ 15.2-2223 and 15.2-2224 of the Code of Virginia ) to include planning for the continued availability, quality and sustainability of groundwater and surface water resources on a County level. State law now requires that the County plan to have good quality water for all its residents present and future in the Comprehensive Plan. These proposals do not address this issue.

The right of existing property owners to their water is primary and valuable and should not be compromised or impaired. Because there are natural fluctuations in groundwater levels it is easy to mask or ignore signs of the beginnings of destruction of the water resources that we depend on. Fluctuations in climate or rainfall and imperfect measurements and vantage points mask trends from clear view. It is essential if the Prince William County Planning Office is considering study the impact of these plans on water resources before making decisions that will result in Prince William County having inadequate water for all its residents in the future.

The Rural Crescent Proposals

The comment period for the Alternatives for the Rural Crescent ends on August 16^th 2019. You have a very narrow time frame to get your comments in and have the Planning Office hear your concerns. After that the Planning Office will generate their plan for the Rural Crescent and make a community presentation on September 24^th 2019.

Prince William County Planning Office held a public outreach meeting on Tuesday night to a present the options that they are considering for the fate of the Rural Crescent. They considered 6 options with two of the options having two versions for a total of eight options that they are considering implementing in the Rural Crescent.

The Planning Office presented about 5 minutes of general information on each option to small groups and allowed the groups to ask questions on each option before filling out a comment card to rating each option from Strongly Disagree 1 to Strongly Agree-5 on the guiding principals that were developed as part of the 2013 Rural Area Study:

·        Preserves/protects contiguous open space for publically assessibe passive recreation

·        Preserves potential for continued farming in the County

·        Allows bucolic farmland viewsheds

·        Represents smart growth

·        Preserves cultural resources

·        Protect rural economy

·        Demonstrates fiscal responsibility

There is a limited area of the Rural Area that is undeveloped and has not yet been partitioned into residential lots. The remaining undeveloped land is 24% of the Rural Area or 28,089 acres. That is all that can be preserved if any of the Rural Area is to be preserved. So,  here are the alternatives presented. As soon as the Planning Office puts the complete descriptions of the options on-line I will link to them for your convenience.

Prince William County Planning Office Alternatives for the Rural Area:

1.  A-10 : 10-acre lots and rural cluster with existing density and no sewer. This is the existing policy. In the coming years this will result in an additional 2,783 houses being built, and additional 1,813 students in our schools, an additional 28,108 transportation daily trips and no open space preserved.

2a.  RC-A: Rural cluster with existing density and sewer. This alternative provides land owners the “right” to extend sewer to their property while maintaining existing planned density levels. It would allow development to be clustered on a corner of a property in order to preserve greenspace and a conservation easement to be placed on the remainder of the land. In the coming years this will result in an additional 2,783 houses being built, and additional 1,813 students in our schools, an additional 28,118 transportation daily trips and 8,145 acres of open space preserved. This limits the amount of impervious surface constructed which may impact groundwater recharge less than option A-10.

2b.  RC-B Rural Cluster with increased density and sewer. This alternative provides land owners the “right” to extend sewer to their property while almost doubling planned density levels. It would allow development to be clustered on a corner of a property in order to preserve greenspace and a conservation easement to be placed on the remainder of the land. In the coming years this will result in an additional 5,067 houses being built, and additional 3,303 students in our schools, an additional 51,177 transportation daily trips and 8,145 acres of open space preserved. The impact on sustainability and availability of groundwater for this has not been studied, but there would be an increased demand on groundwater and a reduction in recharge.

3a.  TDR-A: Transfer of development rights using density based on rural character areas of the rural preservation study. In a TDR program a landowner sells his or her development rights to a developer. This alternative identifies “sending areas” where the rights can be purchased and receiving areas where higher density cluster development will be built. This version of the TDR will have the density in the receiving areas of one house per 1.5 acres. In the coming years this will result in an additional 2,643 houses being built, and additional 1,723 students in our schools, an additional 26,694 transportation daily trips and 23,889 acres of open space preserved. The impact on sustainability and availability of groundwater for this has not been studied, but this does not increase the impervious surface area in the sending areas.

3b.  TDR-B: Transfer of development rights using density base on long range land use from the 1981 comprehensive plan. In a TDR program a landowner sells his or her development rights to a developer. This alternative identifies “sending areas” where the rights can be purchased and receiving areas where higher density cluster development will be built. The basis for the number of rights allotted to land will be based on the number of houses that could have been developed under the 1981 Comprehensive plan. This version does not treat the landowners of the Rural Area equally, but makes land in what was called the “rural residential area” 39 years ago much more valuable.  This alternative will have the density in the receiving areas of one house per 0.4 acres. In the coming years this will result in an additional 10,390 houses being built, and additional 6,773 students in our schools, an additional 104,939 transportation daily trips and 23,176 acres of open space preserved. The impact on sustainability and availability of groundwater for this has not been studied, but this creates a high density area of impervious surfaces around the entire Rural Area which could significantly impact the wells of existing residents. In addition, this increases the demand for public water which is also limited.

4.  PDR: PDR with increase of minimum lot size of A-1. In this alternative, Prince William County would purchase the development rights of lots larger than 20 acres and place an easement for farming and/or open space on the land. Though the county would not use eminent domain, the county is using coercion by increasing the minimum lot size. This while using public money, would not increase the number of houses, students in our schools nor the number of transportation daily trips in the coming years. There would be no impact on sustainability and availability of groundwater.

5.  AAOD: Agritourism and Arts Overlay District. This alternative can be used to complement other options. The objective would be to allow more flexibility to establish a rural and agrarian area with agritourism and art-related businesses. While this will increase economic vitality, the water demands from breweries and wineries needs to be carefully considered. Also, the operation of alcohol selling venues along unlit rural roads must carefully be considered.

6.  LUV: Land use valuation. Since 1972 Virginia has allowed the assessed value of productive agricultural land to be based on its use rather than market value. This option envisions tweaking the aspects of this program that the county controls- reducing the minimum acreage for agricultural, forested and open land.  

Now is your time to comment. Click here to see the full details or comment on the Planning Office web-site. My last thoughts. Changing the character of the Rural Crescent to include cluster development could impact water availability to the existing residents and impact base flow to our rivers. Bringing in public water and sewer connections even if they are limited to cluster development along what is being called the transition area, such expansion may exceed the capacity of the current systems and require water and sewer infrastructure expansion. Clustered properties cannot rely on well and septic- they are simply too close together, clustered development will be connected to public water supplied by Prince William Service Authority.

 
Currently, public water in the areas adjacent to the Rural Crescent is supplied by a combination of groundwater wells and surface water supply that is purchased from Fairfax Water and Lake Manassas. There is a cost to purchase additional capacity from Fairfax Water and that water is not unlimited. Based on the PW Service Authority study of the Evergreen system, that system cannot provide adequate water to withstand a leak or to have adequate water to recover from a problem, let alone provide supply to more homes. In addition, piping and pumps will have to carry water from its source to any new development. This would force the County to find additional sources of water at greater incremental cost to all rate payers and such sources may not even be available. In addition, water mains and sewage piping are costly not only to build, but also to maintain.

For more than two centuries the waters of the Potomac seemed unlimited. It is not, Fairfax Water, Loudoun Water, WSSC, and the Washington Aqueduct all share the waters of the Potomac. The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, ICPRB, manages the Potomac River allocation of the regional water supply during times of low flow and plan for future water supply. The Washington DC region has reached the point in population density and development that during times of drought, natural flows on the Potomac are not always sufficient to allow water withdrawals by the utilities (including power generation which takes an awesome amount of water) while still maintaining a minimum flow in the river for sustaining aquatic resources.