Consider Climate Migration

Over the summer the New York Times did a series of article on climate migration. Fifteen years ago using some fairly crude extrapolations of the published climate projections my husband and I decided we should leave California. After retiring and studying our options, we made a bet on Virginia hoping that my crude estimates based on climate projections from the various models at the time were good enough. We chose northwestern Prince William County; the factors taken into consideration- water availability, distance from the coast, elevation, along with proximity to family, medical service, an airport and green spaces.

We proceeded to future proof our home, creating a French drain system and adding permeable pavers, a generator and solar panels. In 2016 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said: “Virginia’s climate is changing. Most of the state has warmed about one degree (F) in the last century, and the sea is rising one to two inches every decade. Higher water levels are eroding beaches, submerging low lands, exacerbating coastal flooding, and increasing the salinity of estuaries and aquifers. The southeastern United States has warmed less than most of the nation.”

The EPA went on to state that “Tropical storms and hurricanes have become more intense during the past 20 years. Although warming oceans provide these storms with more potential energy, scientists are not sure whether the recent intensification reflects a long-term trend. Nevertheless, hurricane wind speeds and rainfall rates are likely to increase as the climate continues to warm.” They continue pointing out that “sea level is rising more rapidly along Virginia’s shores than in most coastal areas because the land is sinking. If the oceans and atmosphere continue to warm, sea level along the Virginia coast is likely to rise sixteen inches to four feet in the next century.“ 

From the Fourth National Climate Assessment released in 2018:“Because warmer air can hold more moisture, heavy rainfall events have become more frequent and severe in some areas and are projected to increase in frequency and severity as the world continues to warm. Both the intensity and rainfall rates of Atlantic hurricanes are projected to increase with the strongest storms getting stronger in a warming climate. Recent research has shown how global warming can alter atmospheric circulation and weather patterns such as the jet stream, affecting the location, frequency, and duration of these and other extremes.”

That certainly covers the high number of tropical storms this year. Though I read that with concern we are more than 30 miles from the shore, about 350 feet above sea level and there has been no flooding in our immediate area. So far, so good with our guessing. Sadly, no matter what mankind does in the next couple of decades, the expected impacts from climate change are still going to happen. It's too late to prevent it from happening. Any actions mankind takes now or in the next decade can only impact the second half of the 21st century. The climate for the next 20-30 years is pretty much baked into the existing level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

“Because Earth’s climate system still has more energy entering than leaving, global warming has not reached equilibrium with the load of increased greenhouse gases that have already accumulated in the atmosphere (for example, the oceans are still warming over many layers from surface to depth). Some greenhouse gases have long lifetimes (for example, carbon dioxide can reside in the atmosphere for a century or more). Thus, even if the emissions of greenhouse gases were to be sharply curtailed to bring them back to natural levels, it is estimated that Earth will continue warming more than an additional 1°F by 2100.”

Though a new research paper was able to narrow the likely total temperature range to 4.7-7.0˚F. (This is equivalent to between a warming range of between 2.6°C and 3.9°C.) That research was conducted under the World Climate Reasearch Programme (WCRP) and funded in part by The Department of Energy Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, published this past summer in Reviews of Geophysics available for free at this link. 

Now is the time to consider the what the future might hold and plan appropriately. Climate changes and population growth can combine to make some places increasingly challenging to live. For example; extreme rainfall combined with coastal flooding, can increasingly and repeatedly flood homes or make roads not passable. In other locations drought coupled with extreme heat, wildfire, and flooding can result in routine water restriction inability to maintain year round electricity 24/7, loss of property and even life, a higher instance of landslides that disrupt transportation systems. The compounding effects of these impacts result in increased risks to people, infrastructure, and the economy. Even if all of mankind takes immediate and drastic action to fight climate change it is very likely that some impacts, such sea level rise, weather pattern and others will not be reversed for hundreds of years.