State of the Bay 2020

 In January the Chesapeake Bay Foundation (CBF) released their bi-annual State of the Bay health indextscore.  In 2020, the score they gave the Bay declined one point to 32, a D+ in their system of scoring. Of the 13 indicators they assessed, four declined. Nitrogen and phosphorus scores; however, improved. They state in the report that long-term data shows a shrinking of the annual dead zone; and state large-scale oyster restoration is working.

The 2020 State of the Bay Report scores the health of the bay at 32 out of 100, a D+ according to their scoring system which measures the current state of the Bay against the unspoiled Bay ecosystem described by Captain John Smith in the 1600s, with extensive forests and wetlands, clear water, abundant fish and oysters, and lush growths of submerged vegetation would rate a 100 on their scale. That was a time when this region was 95% old growth forests and sparsely populated. It is unlikely that vision is compatible with the vision for population growth that the region has embraced.

The Chesapeake Bay TMDL, what the U.S. EPA and Chesapeake Bay Foundation are now calling “the Chesapeake Clean Water Blueprint” appears not to be working to restore the health of the Bay if you are to judge by the scores that are awarded by the Chesapeake Bay Foundation. The current goals of “Clean Water Blueprint” is a grade of 40, by 2025. The Clean Water Plan is the newer and better name for the enforceable pollution limits for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment pollution in the Chesapeake Bay (formerly called the Bay TMDL) mandated by the EPA to the six Bay states and the District of Columbia. Each of the jurisdictions created a plan (approved by the EPA) called Watershed Implementation Plans or WIPs, to meet those limits by 2025. The states agreed to have the 60% of the needed programs and practices in place by 2017, and to complete the job by 2025.

 Despite making progress on the pollution limits for nitrogen and phosphorus the score went down! I am officially discouraged and question their scoring strategy and weighting. The TMDL is working, even the Chesapeake Bay Foundation says so, but this year’s State of the Bay report says “the system remains dangerously out of balance, the road ahead is steep, and the clock is ticking.” Despite the discouragement their report generates , continue to support the TMDL and its goals and do everything you can to help restore the Bay.

From CBF

Here is the summary comments from the report:

Pollution knows no state boundaries. (I love that line.) That’s why the Chesapeake Clean Water Blueprint requires each of the six Bay states and the District of Columbia to reduce pollution flowing into the watershed’s rivers, streams, and coastal waters.

Record-setting rainfall events in both 2018 and 2019 continued to impact the survival of underwater grasses, which reached a 40 year peak in 2018. Changing climate creates more challenges for the “Clean Water Blueprint.”

One bright spot is the work to restore large-scale oyster reefs in more than 10 targeted tributary rivers in Maryland and Virginia, which is showing promising results and has paved the way for new investments—especially in Virginia. The blue crab population also remains healthy, though water quality improvements that reduce dead zones and expand underwater grass habitat are important to help numbers fully rebound. Rockfish (striped bass), however, were well below sustainable levels in 2019, and there has been below-average spawning activity in the Bay over the past two years. That is primarily responsible for the falling score.