Promises Made

The meeting in Glasgow, Scotland continues after the world leaders who have attended or made their appearances virtually have left. As promised in his speech and delineated in the April 22, 2021 White House press statement, the United States has set a goal to reach 100 % carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035 and net zero emissions throughout the economy by 2050. The President also pledged an interim goal of a 50-52% reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution by 2030. That promise requires that the United States cut about 2 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emission before 2030. The U.S. EPA has not released the promised pathway to achieving these goals because of the uncertainty surrounding the reconciliation and infrastructure legislations which contain both money and programs to achieve that goal. We will need to see if and how congress and regulators back up the President’s promise.  The big question is if President Biden can secure the legislation to deliver on his promises to the rest of the world.

The President’s promise needs to be backed up by having the Senate confirm the Paris Agreement and our promises under them. The United States under President Obama was a key player in negotiating the Paris Agreement and ensuring that greenhouse gas emission reductions are voluntary.  This allowed the United States to join the Paris Agreement without Senate confirmation. Though the Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, it requires countries to set their own voluntary targets for reducing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, and to steadily increase those goals every few years. The only binding requirement is that nations have to accurately report on their efforts.

From US EIA

When negotiating the Paris Agreement the Obama administration promised put $3 billion in the Green Climate Fund, the lending fund for aiding developing countries, but failed to get congress to approve a budget with climate reparations. All this was done under executive orders and regulation. Under former president Trump the United States formally announced its intention to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement in one year. Because of the amount of time required to withdraw, the United States attended and was still a member during the Madrid meeting.  Any signatory to the agreement that withdraws can apply for readmission to the United Nations and can be back in within 30 days. That is exactly what President Biden did upon taking office.

The United States is still a significant emitter, we need to take action that is acceptable to the nation under legislation not executive order and confirm in the Senate our commitment to the Paris Agreement if we expect that our promises under the Paris Agreement to be taken seriously. 

The problem is that under the Paris Agreement China has only agreed to stop growing their CO2 emissions by 2030, India has not pledged reductions, several significant emitters have not made any changes to their 2015 pledges and ways to fund Article 6 remains unresolved. The reduction in emissions pledged so far by the other nations even if met are not sufficient to hold temperature change to 2 degrees C according to the climate models, let alone 1.5 degrees C. With China the largest CO2 emitter at more than 27% of the total- more than twice the United States level, the goals of the Paris Agreement cannot be met without reductions in China and the other nations still growing their emissions.