Prince William and Our Regional Climate Goals

 In November 2020 the Prince William Board of County Supervisors voted to adopt the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments’ (COG) Region Forward Vision including a sustainability goal that calls for a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions of 50 % below 2005 levels by 2030 as the first step.

So, using the information available from COG and the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) let’s take a look at where we are and what the data tells us so that we can move forward together in Prince William.

What you see above is the basic plan for how the region will meet the 2030 goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50%. Reductions in the carbon intensity of the grid were planned to account for half of the 2030 goal. This was to be achieved by switching to clean energy for a portion of the demand and switching from coal to natural gas for the rest under the Virginia Clean Economy Act which plans to achieve 30% renewable energy by 2030,  and creates the path to a carbon-free electric grid by 2045. 

The Virginia utilities have made great progress in building solar farms, switching fuel to the existing power plants and Dominion Energy is moving forward with the 2,640- megawatt Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) commercial project, the largest planned offshore wind farm in the United States. Over the past decade the carbon intensity of the electricity generated in Virginia has fallen by over 40%.

However, in 2020, electricity sales in Virginia were 115,585 GWh more than 30% greater than they were the decade before. This has led to the mass emissions levels of CO2 (e) remaining relatively constant. 

from EIA

In the Metropolitan Washington area as a whole, overall greenhouse gas emission have fallen 13% over the region since 2005 as you can see in the chart above. However, as is shown in the chart below, Prince William County greenhouse gas emissions have grown 19% since 2005.

 

 Let’s walk through the areas of greenhouse gas emission growth and reduction to understand how Prince William County ended up with a 19% increase in greenhouse gas emissions over a time when greenhouse gas emissions were shrinking in the region overall. Residential use stayed fairly constant, while commercial and transportation both grew. Take a look at the chart below.

 

We start with greenhouse gas emissions around 4,125,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalents per year in 2005. Between 2005 and 2018 the “increase commercial kWh/foot squared added around 1,075,000 metric tons of CO2 per year. What this is saying is that the average power usage per square foot of commercial space increased significantly over this period. Grocery stores, office buildings, restaurants and shops did not start using more power per square foot. What happened was that energy intensive uses grew in Prince William County. Data Centers use much more power than any other commercial use and they began to proliferate during this time.

The other large area of growth was population growth. while homes use power for heat, air conditioning, electricity that use stayed fairly constant. The growth was in transportation and mobility-all those new residents drive to work, the grocery etc. The big reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over the period came from the power companies change in electricity fuel mix (the change from coal fired turbines to natural gas fired turbines). The fuel change accounted for a reduction of about 1,000,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalents per year.

By building out data centers (which are increasing) we overwhelmed any benefit the change in electricity fuel mix would have given us. Had we not built the datacenters the CO2 equivalent emissions would have been reduced by about 7% instead of increasing. The choices our community makes about development, housing and transportation matter to the future of Prince William, Virginia and our planet.