Red Flag Warning for Wildfires

The Washington DC Region is officially in the longest dry streak on record at 40 days. We passed the previous record of 34 days with no rain last week and I hope the forecast for some rain on Sunday is just the beginning of a wetter winter than the summer turned out to be. Welcome to a changing climate. This is what it looks like.

It had been a warm and dry summer. Though Hurricane Helene brought rain to us at the end of September we are experiencing drought. Not much rain has fallen since that storm and warmer temperatures which the region has seen since June means higher evaporation rates and drier soils. Drought doesn’t just come from a lack of precipitation like rain or snow. Drought can also occur from higher-than-normal temperatures that can quickly dry out the ground.

Even if the total amount of rain stays the same or increases a bit, you can still get drought. That is especially true with more episodic rain. When we get a small number of big storms, all the water comes at once. The ground cannot soak it up, groundwater cannot be recharged, the existing reservoirs cannot store the water all at once. We get flooding that just flows to the rivers and the bay.

A wide range of evidence indicates that the earth has been warming over the past century and patterns of precipitation are changing.  These trends are likely to continue.  Likely changes in temperatures and precipitation will affect the availability, use, and management of water resources, but these changes will also impact wildfire risk.

A tweet from the National Weather Service

The extremely dry conditions across our region have led to an above average number of wildfires according to Maryland Officials. Conditions are not expected to change in the near future. The dry conditions have spurred the states of Maryland and West Virginia as well as the regions of Virginia in the Shenandoah Valley to declare a burn ban to prevent fires.

Burning yard trimmings or leaves is a common practice, but a dangerous one when the weather is dry and windy. This morning the wind was blowing something wicked and I smelled fire when I got the newspapers from the driveway. I do not know if someone was burning leaves or if there was a wildfire building somewhere..

According to the Virginia Department of Forestry, debris burning is the number one cause of wildfires, closely followed by intentionally set or “arson” fires. Fires are more likely during late winter and early spring because winds are usually elevated, the relative humidity is lower, and the fuels on the forest floor are extremely dry, having “cured” all winter without the shade of tree leaves. Those are the exact conditions we are experiencing now. The leaves fell early. 

Winds can blow burning yard waste and embers from firepits and debris burns far off site and ignite dried out and dead vegetation that has become combustible. We have allowed invasive plant species to choke off and kill many still standing trees in small wooded areas all over the region now after a summer where there were weeks without rain these are pockets of fuel for wildfires.

Potential fuel for forest fires that has since been removed

According to the Virginia Department of Forestry, nine out of ten wildfires are caused by humans (yes that includes arson). That means nine out of ten wildfires can be prevented by people, too. The easiest and cheapest way to suppress a fire is before it starts. Fall and spring are ideal times to reduce excess vegetation around your home that could pose an elevated fire threat.

Effective November 1, 2024, all open-air burning is prohibited in Front Royal and Warren County and much of the Shenandoah Valley and all of Maryland. Maryland’s ban will remain in effect until the Forest Service lifts it. West Virginia governor Jim Justice issued his state’s burn ban on Monday, November 4, 2024.

NOAA has issued a Wildfire warning. The entire region is now at red flag warning for wildfires. “Elevated potential for the rapid spread of fire is expected through midday due to the combination of dry conditions and gusty winds. Relative humidity values drop to around 25 % along with sustained northerly around 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 20 to 25 mph. This will result in the rapid drying of fine fuels like grass, leaves, and small shrubs. Residents and visitors are urged to exercise caution if handling open flames or equipment that create sparks. “