Drought is Persisting

Last week the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), in coordination with the Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force, has expanded the drought warning. The Drought Monitoring Task Force recommends a new Drought Watch declaration for the following regions:

• Northern Piedmont
• The entirety of the Northern Coastal Plain
• The entirety of the Shenandoah

In addition, the Drought Monitoring Task Force recommends maintaining the Drought Watch status for the following regions:

• Eastern Shore
• Northern Virginia

from DEQ

Observed 30-day precipitation shows a central swath of 0.5-1.0 inches falling along the Blue Ridge province and its borders with the Piedmont and Valley and Ridge provinces. Precipitation totals between two-to-four inches were observed in western, eastern, and southeastern portions of the Commonwealth. A small band of six-to-eight inches fell in a narrow band across the Chowan, York James, and eastern Northern Coastal Plain regions. Percent of normal precipitation during the past thirty-day period shows regions west of I-95 generally receiving less than 75% of normal precipitation.

Moisture in the top meter of soil remains largely below the 70th-percentile throughout most of the Commonwealth. Pockets of sub 20th-percentile soil moisture exist in the northern third of the State (us). Groundwater wells in northern and eastern Virginia are still primarily much below normal water levels. The Shenandoah, Northern Virginia, Northern Coastal Plain, and York James regions remain in groundwater emergency status. Wells across the Commonwealth saw limited recharge during March, and most groundwater levels remained steady or experienced some decline. Northern Virginia wells continue to exhibit sub 10th and sub 5th percentile water levels.

Daily streamflow conditions observed on April 2, 2025, showed sub 25^th percentile flow west of the Coastal Plain province, and east of the Big Sandy region. Sub 10th percentile daily flow was observed in the Upper James, Middle James, Roanoke, Shenandoah, and Northern Virginia regions. Past seven and 28-day average streamflows show widespread below-normal average streamflows across the Commonwealth. Past seven-day average streamflow conditions showing a decline in flow compared to past 28-day.

from ICPRB

The bottom line is that we are continuing in drought. According to the ICPRB,  the severity of drought continues to grow not only in Virginia but across the Potomac River watershed. The area of Severe Drought (orange) in the watershed grew from 23% two weeks ago to  30% last week, making its way west across the basin.

Rain in the Potomac Watershed over the past 30 days is 1.7 inches below normal. Winter ended at 7.6 inches of rain below normal. Since the beginning of the rain year on October 1^st we are between 54-62% of normal rainfall in Haymarket, VA. Virginia generally receives about 44 inches of precipitation per year in Prince William County, and is historically considered “water rich" area. However, droughts are not uncommon, and Virginia has a history of multi-year droughts. The graph below shows the frequency of drought years (yellow to red colors) to wet years (white) from 2000 to the present in Virginia.

from https://www.drought.gov/states/virginia