NOAA Predicts an above-normal 2020 Hurricane Season

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an above normal 2020 hurricane season. They are predicting a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those forecast storms 6 to 10 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service provides these forecasts with a 70% confidence level. In an average hurricane season in the Atlantic there are 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

from NOAA

  “NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator.“ Several climate factors have contributed to the strong likelihood for above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity. Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likely intensity of the hurricane season.

The World Meteorological Organization has already published the list of names for this season’s storms. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. Though the first named storm of the season, Arthur, occurred in earlier in May and Bertha hit Florida earlier this week. 

from NOAA

Hurricane preparedness is critically important. Keep in mind, you may need to adjust any preparedness plans and actions based on the latest health and safety guidelines from the CDC for covid-19 and your local restrictions. Visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on any watches and warnings.

Northern VA Enters Phase One with Masks

On May 26th Governor Ralph Northam issued Executive Order 63 effective at 12:oo am May29th 2020 requiring all Virginians over age 10 to wear a face covering over their mouth and nose when entering, exiting, traveling through, and spending time inside the settings listed below and as described and recommended by the CDC:

• Personal care and personal grooming businesses 
• All brick and mortar retail businesses
• Food and beverage establishments
• Entertainment or recreation businesses 
• Train stations, bus stations, and intrastate public transportation
• Any other indoor place shared by groups of people
• State or local government buildings

The Virginia Department of Health shall have authority to enforce this Order so for the moment there will be no fines and no jail time. However, the Department of Health can close a business.
The requirement to wear a face covering does not apply to following:

• While eating or drinking;
• While exercising or using exercise equipment;
• While unconscious, incapacitated
• While seeking to communicate with the hearing impaired and for which the mouth needs to be visible;
• When temporary removal of the face covering is necessary to secure government or medical services; and

In addition it was announced that Northern Virginia will enter Phase One of restriction easing on May 29th at 12:00 am. If you recall, on May 8th Governor Ralph Northam issued Executive Order 61 effective at 12:00 a.m., May 15, 2020, easing certain restrictions imposed under Second Amended Executive Order 53 and Executive Order 55 (both Orders are now collectively referred to as Phase Zero). Executive Order 61 sets out the Commonwealth of Virginia’s path into Phase One.
With limits on distancing and occupancy and emphasis on recommended cleaning and disinfecting surfaces Phase One allows:

• Restaurants, breweries, distilleries, wineries, and tasting rooms to operate take-out, and outdoor dining and beverage services at 50% of the lowest occupancy load.
• Farmers markets may reopen
• Most brick and mortar retail business may operate at 50% occupancy, provided such businesses comply with the Guidelines in the order.
• Fitness centers, gymnasiums, recreation centers, sports facilities, and exercise facilities may reopen for outdoor activities only.
• Beauty salons, barbershops, spas, massage centers, tanning salons, tattoo shops, and any other location where personal care or personal grooming services are performed may reopen at 50% capacity.
• Religious services may take place with social distancing and at 50% capacity.
• Entertainment venues remain closed and all social gathering of more than 10 people remains banned.

I am excited to get my hair cut and start to get my life back on schedule. You can read all the details in Executive Order 61 and Order 63 at these links.

Health of the Chesapeake Bay Looks Worse

from UMCES

Last week the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science released their 13th annual report card on the health of the Chesapeake Bay for 2019. Overall, Chesapeake Bay scored 44% in 2019. This is the lowest score and first C- since 2011 and pretty discouraging considering all the effort and money that has gone into the Watershed Implementation Plans to meet the goals of the Chesapeake Clean Water Blueprint. will ensure pollution reductions in the Chesapeake Bay by 2025 that was supposed to lead to the "fishable, swimmable" waters.

Although several indicators of bay health improved in 2019, they did not offset those that declined. Bay-wide, dissolved oxygen scored 83% in 2019, a decrease from 2018. Water clarity scored 10%, a slight decrease from last year’s 7%. The benthic community score sharply decreased from a 59% to a 38%. Total nitrogen scored 39%, a decline from last year’s 44%. Total phosphorus scored 76%, a slight increase from 2018. Chlorophyll a scored 26%, an increase from 22% in 2018. Aquatic grasses scored 35%, a decline from last year’s 39%.

from UMCES

Overall Chesapeake Bay Health Scores have been variable in the past and bounced around a bit. From 2015-2017 the, Chesapeake Bay Health Scores were in the high C range (53, 54, 54). At that time the consecutive scores contributed to an overall positive trajectory and it appeared that we were making progress. More time only served to show that the Health Index broke out of its historical range to the down side. This year they explain that the moderate and poor scores in 2019 were mainly due to above-average temperatures almost every month of the year. Warmer air temperatures means warmer waters, and the intense heat hurt aquatic grasses and benthic macroinvertebrates, and caused lower dissolved oxygen levels. The year before it was excessive rain and heavy storm events that caused the disappointing results. A changing climate seem to be impacting the performance of the Clean Water Blueprint. The next phase of the plan is supposed to account for changing climate.

This is the first year that they have scored the watershed, using five indicators of ecological and socioeconomic health. The University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science has incorporated new indicators for Chesapeake Bay health including some indicators of watershed health. Watershed health includes traditional ecosystem indicators, but also social, economic, and cultural indicators.

from UMCES

Overall, the Chesapeake Watershed scored 60%, a B-. There were four aquatic indicators and one societal indicator. Watershed-wide, total nitrogen scored 79%. Total phosphorus scored 61% and turbidity scored 68%. Stream benthic community scored 46%. One social indicator was included, the Social Index, which scored 60%. I have no idea why these scores were given.

Arlington Board Approves the Connection to Fairfax Water

At last week’s Arlington Board of Supervisors meeting the under the consent agenda the Board authorized the County Manager to execute the Agreement for Construction of Water Facilities and Emergency Use of Water with Fairfax County Water Authority, subject to legal review by the County Attorney.

Arlington obtains their water from the Washington Aqueduct, a federally owned and operated by the Army Corp of Engineers and dates back to 1853. The Aqueduct produces an average of 155 million gallons of water per day and sells that water to the District of Columbia (about 75% of the finished water), Arlington County, Virginia (about 15%), and the City of Falls Church, Virginia (10%). The Washington Aqueduct consists of the Dalecarlia Reservoir and Water Treatment Plant, the Georgetown Reservoir, and the McMillan Reservoir and Water Treatment Plant. The Washington Aqueduct draws water from the Potomac River and treats it to provide finished drinking water to the water distribution companies that buy water from them.

The maximum capacity of the Aqueduct is 320 million gallons of water per day much more than even the peak demand for drinking water and fire fighting for their customers. Water use peaked at an average of 180 million of gallons a day nearly 20 years ago, the system was expanded in the 1950’s anticipating serving Montgomery and Prince George counties, but the Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission (WSSC) instead built what is today the WSSC's principal water supply facility, the Potomac River Filtration Plant in western Montgomery County to supply their needs. Despite the excess capacity, the water supply remains vulnerable to a chemical spill or other disruption in the Potomac River upstream from the Aqueduct’s intake.

This deal with Fairfax Water is an insurance policy. Fairfax Water has two water treatment plants. The Corbalis Water Treatment Plant, the newer of the two also draw water from the Potomac River. However, the older Griffith plant draws from the Occoquan Reservoir. Fairfax Water produces 160 million gallons of water per day from both the Corbalis plant and the Griffith plant, but the combined total capacity of both plants is 345 million gallons/day. In an emergency when intake from the Potomac River is not possible for an extended period of time this water main could supply water to Arlington and Falls Church balancing the use of the regions Reservoirs and water supply by the ICPRB.

There is already a half mile water main connecting Falls Church to the Fairfax Water system. This project would extend that by another three quarters of a mile to Arlington along North Powhatan Street for emergency use purposes. This project provides redundancy for Arlington County’s water supply in case of an emergency. Currently, its sole water supply is from the Washington Aqueduct. Fairfax Water estimates that the Powhatan Street Main Cost will equal $2,875,000. The Arlington County portion is 70%, currently estimated at $2,012,500. Fairfax Water will build, maintain and operate the water main.

The quality of the water being produced at Washington Aqueduct and Fairfax Water is excellent. It meets or exceeds all United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) standards and requirements. The water quality report release at the end of 2019 covers the sampling done during calendar year 2018. There were no violations of the U.S. EPA’s Safe Drinking Water Act and you can view the report here. The Aqueduct report can be viewed here.

Correlation found to Vitamin D Levels and Covid-19 Mortality

From a Northwestern News Release:

Northwestern University Engineering research team lead by Dr. Vadioum Backman conducted a statistical analysis of data from hospitals and clinics across China, France, Germany, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. They found a correlation between low vitamin D levels and mortality rates.

Dr. Backman is the Walter Dill Scott Professor of Biomedical Engineering at Northwestern Engineering. Ali Daneshkhah, a postdoctoral research associate in Backman’s laboratory, is the paper’s first author.

Dr. Backman and his team were inspired to examine vitamin D levels after noticing unexplained differences in COVID-19 mortality rates from country to country. Though some hypothesized that differences in healthcare quality, age distributions in population, testing rates or different strains of the coronavirus might be responsible, Dr. Backman d did not believe any of those factors played a significant role.

The scientists noted that patients from countries with high COVID-19 mortality rates, such as Italy, Spain and the UK, had lower levels of vitamin D compared to patients in countries that were not as severely affected. The scientists assumed that vitamin D levels in COVID-19 patients follow the same distribution that the subjects in previous vitamin D studies had shown. The vitamin D levels of covid-19 patients were not measured.

By analyzing publicly available patient data from around the globe, Backman and his team discovered a strong correlation between population vitamin D levels and cytokine storm — a hyperinflammatory condition caused by an overactive immune system — as well as a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and mortality. “Cytokine storm can severely damage lungs and lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome and death in patients,” Dr. Ali Daneshkhah said. “This is what seems to kill a majority of COVID-19 patients, not the destruction of the lungs by the virus itself. It is the complications from the misdirected fire from the immune system.”

This may be where vitamin D plays a major role. Not only does vitamin D enhance our innate immune systems, it also prevents our immune systems from becoming dangerously overactive. This means that having healthy levels of vitamin D could protect patients against severe complications, including death, from COVID-19.

While vitamin D deficiency might play a role in mortality, this needs further study. The engineers hope their work will stimulate interest in the area. Dr. Backman was careful to point out that people should not take excessive doses of vitamin D, which might come with negative side effects. Much more research is needed to know how vitamin D could be used most effectively to protect against COVID-19 complications. The paper has not yet been peer reviewed, but can be read in its entirety at medRxiv.

Northern Virginia still Locked Down

On May 8th Governor Ralph Northam issued Executive Order 61 effective at 12:00 a.m., May 15, 2020, easing certain restrictions imposed under Second Amended Executive Order 53 and Executive Order 55 (both Orders are now collectively referred to as Phase Zero). Executive Order 61 sets out the Commonwealth of Virginia’s path into Phase One. I was excited to breath a little more freedom and expected to be able to get my hair cut and start to get my life back on schedule.

However, on May 9, 2020, Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chair, Ann Wheeler, along with Arlington, Fairfax, and Loudoun Board of Supervisors, and the Cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, Manassas Park, as well as the Towns of Dumfries, Herndon, Leesburg, and Vienna (the total of the Northern Virginia Region) requested to remain in Phase Zero. They took this action because data showed that Northern Virginia still has substantially higher percentage of positive tests for COVID-19 than the rest of the Commonwealth. Northern Virginia has about a 25% positivity rate, while the rest of the Commonwealth is closer to 10%.

Accordingly, Governor Northam issued Executive Order 62 ordering all individuals in the  Northern Virginia Region to remain at their place of residence, except as provided below until 11:59 p.m., May 28, 2020. Hopefully, an additional two weeks will bring our number of cases in line with the rest of the Commonwealth. You've seen this all before, but just as a reminder...

Individuals may only leave their residences for the purpose of:

Obtaining food, beverages, goods.
Seeking medical attention, essential social services, governmental services, assistance from law enforcement, or emergency services;
Taking care of other individuals, animals, or visiting the home of a family member;
Traveling required by court order or to facilitate child custody, visitation, or child care;
Engaging in outdoor activity, including exercise, provided individuals comply with social distancing requirements;
Traveling to and from one’s residence, place of worship, or work;
Traveling to and from an educational institution;
Volunteering with organizations that provide charitable or social services; and
Leaving one’s residence due to a reasonable fear for health or safety, at the direction of law enforcement, or at the direction of another government agency.

As before essential retail businesses remain open in Northern Virginia.

I live in the northwest corner of Prince William where Loudoun County, Prince William and Fauquier County all converge. It seemed rather arbitrary to keep the restrictions by county line, but what do I really want to do anyway...Okay, we remain in Phase Zero hopefully, the additional two weeks will do the trick and lower the rate of infection.

USGS releases Map of where Pyrrhotite Occurs

Last week the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released a map of where the mineral pyrrhotite naturally occurs in the continental United States. My first reaction was huh?!! According to the press release: “This project was a bit unusual for us, because typically we’re trying to help people find mineral deposits that they want, not minerals that they don’t want,” said USGS scientist Jeff Mauk, who led the project.

Pyrrhotite is related to the more common and well-known mineral pyrite, Fool’s Gold. They are both worthless. Pyrrhotite differs from pyrite because it has less sulfur and is far more reactive to water than pyrite. Pyrrhotite is known to be present in Great Brittan, France, the United States and Canada. It turns out where pyrrohitite is important-  to avoid using it as fill in cement mixtures. When pyrrhotite is exposed to water and oxygen, it breaks down to produce sulfuric acid and secondary minerals, including gypsum, which have larger volumes than the pyrrhotite they replace.

If pyrrhotite-bearing stone is crushed up and used as filler for the concrete it can break down over time to form secondary minerals that expand and crack concrete, causing concrete structures, like roads, bridges, aqueducts and home foundations, to fail. Thus, identifying where pyrrhotite may occur can help identify where there may be a risk of pyrrhotite being included in crushed stone production. The new national map shows that pyrrhotite may be distributed widely in metamorphic rock along the Appalachian Mountains and in smaller pockets in the western United States.

The phenomenon when concrete undergoes an increase in volume and subsequently cracking under long exposure to sulfate enriched solutions, was first discovered in the early days of the 20th century. An investigation of cement failures in 1914 involving the USDA, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the American Portland Cement Manufactures Association found that Secondary mineral formation is strongly dependent on the availability of sulfate which can be either natural or manmade contaminants in ground water, moisture in soils and sulfate-rich acid rain. Sulfur dioxide from the combustion of fuel and the sulfate impurities of deicing salt have been found over the years to be sources of sulfur contamination and damage to concrete structures.

It wasn’t until the last part of the 20th century when it was discovered that concrete rich in iron sulfide were also subject to premature deterioration. Pyrite (FeS2) and pyrrhotite (Fe1-xS) are the most common iron sulfide compounds in nature.  The pyrrhotite was found to especially serve as an internal sources of sulfur for delayed mineral formation.. Oxidation of these sulfides over time in the presence of water and an oxidant (either oxygen or ferric ion) leads to the formation of cracking and ultimately the failure of the concrete.

Although sulfide containing aggregates induced premature deterioration of concrete, only a limited number of scientists were aware of this problem before the late 1990’s. However, as more damage appeared in highway and foundation deterioration interest in the problem increased. The first symposium on pyritic rock fills in concrete was held in May 1997 by the Montreal section of the Association of Engineering Geologists (AEG).

More recently, premature deterioration of concrete foundations were found in thousands of homes in eastern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. Pyrrhotite occurs in rocks in many areas of the United States. To help assess the national risk of pyrrhotite in aggregate, the 2019 appropriations bill for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) allocated funds to develop this map (below) showing the distribution of pyrrhotite across the United States in hopes of preventing the inclusion in concrete and the devastating consequences to homeowners. Slow deterioration of concrete is not a covered event under homeowners insurance.

Last summer the Associated Press reported that” hundreds of suburban homeowners in a large swath of eastern Connecticut are getting help from the state to salvage properties.” The Connecticut Foundation Solutions Indemnity Company, which is funded with $20 million a year for five years in state borrowing and an annual $12 fee on homeowners’ insurance policies is providing eligible homeowners up to $175,000 to repair their homes. The he work involves cutting back the driveway, disconnection and removing the furnace and plumbing hookups, then creating holes into the foundation walls so steel beams can be slid underneath the home. Then the house is jacked up using the steel frame. Workers then jack hammer away all the concrete, and a new foundation is poured. The grant from the Connecticut Foundation Solutions Indemnity Company often doesn’t cover the whole cost.