PJM has Power Plant Fast Track Plan Approved

 Last week the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved a comprehensive reform of the PJM generator interconnection process.  The change is designed to quickly and more efficiently process new service requests by changing from a first-come, first-served queue process to a first-ready, first-served approach. This is how PJM is going to address the data center power demand problem.

PJM Interconnection, a regional transmission grid operator, works behind the scenes to ensure the reliability of the power grid and to keep the lights on. PJM is our regional transmission organization that takes responsibility for grid operations, reliability, and transmission service within 13 states and the District of Columbia: Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. As part of that mission PJM forecasts the demand and makes sure the power generation is available to meet that need. PJM is the largest regional grid operator.

Under the approved plan PJM can review up to 50 new power generation proposals in addition to the 55 gigawatts of renewable and batter energy storage in the already in the que. This change is needed to address the power shortage forecasted to be 30 gigawatts by 2029. Most of this growth is in Northern Virginia and is from the growth in the number of data centers. These new fast tracked generation proposals are thought likely to include large gas generation projects.  In its January 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast Report, PJM outlined near-term resource adequacy concerns, occurring as soon as the 2029/2030 delivery year.  Gas generation is not only dispatchable, but is generally the fastest to build and PJM will address the data center power demand surge.

Net Energy Load Growth in the PJM region is projected to average 4.8% per year over the next 10-year period, and 2.9% over the next 20-years. The total PJM electricity use is forecasted to be 1,328,045 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2035, a 10-year increase of 495,264 GWh, and reaches 1,482,068 GWh in 2045, a 20-year increase of 649,287 GWh. What is driving the growth is the demand in the Dominion Region-

from PJM

As you can see from the chart above in the Dominion Zone, Commercial Demand which includes data centers) for electricity had grown to over 50% of demand by 2023. Now that demand is forecast to continue growing driving almost all the near term growth in the entire PJM. It is reported that PJM's grid includes only 5% renewables at this time and this will slow the conversion to renewables under the VCEA. 

Under the VCEA, Virginia is legally required to retire all fossil fuel baseload generation, (this excludes the existing nuclear power plants), in favor of  renewable generation which is intermittent and not dispatchable. The VCEA will require additional solar panels enough to cover an area the size of multiple Fairfax Counties. Building so called solar farms has coincided with decreasing tree canopy in Virginia. This is counterproductive to a sustainable Virginia. With the retirement of baseload generation which is dispatchable and always on-demand and can power data centers in the dark, multiples of the GW generation shut down must be combined with utility scale storage to manage power demand when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing. Such battery storage is not yet cost effective. The authors of the VCEA law forgot to control the demand for additional power when they planned for Virginia's future. 

Microplastics and PFAS in Landfills and WWTP

Prada AF, Scott JW, Green L, Hoellein TJ. Microplastics and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in landfill-wastewater treatment systems: A field study. Sci Total Environ. 2024 Dec 1;954:176751. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176751. Epub 2024 Oct 6. PMID: 39378946.

The article excerpts and summarizes the research cited above and the University of Illinois press release.

Since the 1950s plastics have been mass produced in greater and greater volumes. Global production of plastics was 1.5 million tons/year in the 1950's and was 370 million tons/year in 2019 (Kumar et al., 2021). It is estimated that 79 % of all the plastic produced has either been buried in landfills or becomes fugitive in the environment. Only 9 % of plastic has been recycled (Geyer et al., 2017). As a result, plastic pollution, including microplastics the name given for particles smaller than 5 mm) are now ubiquitous in the environment (Lim, 2021).

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a class of synthetic organic chemicals are entirely synthetic. PFAS are used extensively in aqueous film-forming foams (AFFFs), non-stick coating, paper products, textiles, and other products because they repel oil and water, resist temperature extremes, and reduce friction (Paul et al., 2009; Lindstrom et al., 2011). By design, PFAS are thermally stable, oxidatively recalcitrant, and resist microbial degradation (Kannan et al., 2001; Kissa, 2001; Parsons et al., 2008)- in other words they last almost forever. Because of their large-scale use and high stability, PFAS have spread and are widely detected at low levels in water, soil, and the atmosphere. (Ahrens et al., 2011; Hamid et al., 2018).

In the last two decades, many PFAS such as perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have been ubiquitously detected in wildlife and humans (Giesy et al., 2010; Nakayama et al., 2019; Remucal, 2019; McDonough et al., 2022). In animals, PFAS can be immunotoxins, reproductive toxins, developmental toxins, endocrine disruptors, and possible carcinogens (Lau et al., 2007; Gorrochategui et al., 2014; Grandjean and Clapp, 2015; Jian et al., 2018; Steenland and Winquist, 2021; Panieri et al., 2022).

Microplastics have also been related to health problems as they could disrupt the gut microbiome, enter organ tissues, cause local inflammatory and immune responses, and transport other toxic substances (Gruber et al., 2022).

Landfills and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) have been found to be point sources for many emerging contaminants, including microplastics and PFAS (Michielssen et al., 2016; Stahl et al., 2018; Solo-Gabriele et al., 2020; Sun et al., 2021). Landfill leachate may contain 10² microplastics per liter (Sun et al., 2021) and PFAS in concentrations of parts-per-billion (Harrad et al., 2019). WWTP effluent may contain tens of microplastics per liter (Franco et al., 2021) and PFAS in concentrations of parts-per-trillion (Gallen et al., 2018).

Landfills and WWTPs are places where plastic materials and PFAS containing material are disposed. However, those materials do not entirely stay in the landfill and WWTPs. Previous research suggests most microplastics and PFAS that enter WWTPs are retained in the biosolids (Harley-Nyang et al., 2023; Garg et al., 2023). Biosolids are commonly later used as soil amendments and thus facilitate the return of contaminants to the environment when applied to land. Biosolids have also been disposed of in landfills, and WWTPs are interconnected by the regulatory requirement that landfill leachate must be treated before it is discharged to surface waters (USEPA, 2000). Previous studies have examined these systems separately and have reported concentrations of microplastics and PFAS without further investigation of how much of the detected concentrations in WWTP influents come from landfill leachates compared to city sewage.

In the 2024 study cited above, the scientists measured microplastics and PFAS throughout the linked landfill-WWTP systems, where landfill leachate entered a WWTP (N = 4 different systems). The objectives of this study were to:

1. Quantify microplastics and 14 of the most common PFAS compounds found in landfill leachate and WWTP influent, effluent, and biosolids 
2. Perform detailed size measurements of microplastics to calculate microplastic mass, and
3. Generate mass balances of microplastics and PFAS to assess their fate.

 The scientist found that landfills retain most of the plastic waste that is dumped there, and wastewater treatment plants remove 99% of the microplastics and some of the PFAS from the wastewater and landfill leachate they take in. The analysis revealed that while landfills do a good job of retaining microplastics, their leachate contains higher levels of PFAS than anticipated.

“We were surprised how high the PFAS levels were in landfill leachate, while the microplastics were lower than expected,” Dr. Andrea Prada said.

Unfortunately, both microplastics and PFAS accumulate in the biosolids that settle to the bottom of wastewater treatment plants. These biosolids must be disposed of in other ways and have been landfilled and land applied as an agricultural amendment for decades.

Wastewater treatment plants are designed to process thousands even millions of gallons of wastewater from sanitary (and in older urban areas storm) sewer systems. That water carries a significant load of microplastics and PFAS from homes and businesses. While the concentration of PFAS in water flowing through these systems is lower than that found in landfill leachate, the massive volume of water coming in from sewers makes the overall mass of both contaminants higher.

The WWTPs in the study can take in 10,000 gallons of wastewater per minute but only about 30,000 gallons of landfill leachate per day. “The problem of microplastics and PFAS in biosolids is not easy to solve,the researchers said. Spreading PFAS and microplastics across cropland is not a good practice,” Dr. John Scott said. “But what else are we to do with it? If we landfill it, we’re just going around and around in the circle of moving it from landfill to wastewater treatment plant and back to the landfill.”

Mankind has created an unholy loop that we need to solve.

Photo by Fred Zwicky U of I

 

China’s Cities are Subsiding

Zurui Ao et al., A national-scale assessment of land subsidence in China’s major cities.Science384,301-306(2024).DOI:10.1126/science.adl4366

Robert J. Nicholls, Manoochehr Shirzaei , Earth’s sinking surface.Science384,268-269(2024).DOI:10.1126/science.ado998

The article below is excerpted from the peer reviewed research study and related invited perspective cited above.

 Subsidence is the lowering or sinking  of the Earth’s land surface through natural or manmade processes. It is a widespread and sometimes dramatic phenomenon. Such sinking is caused by a range of factors, including groundwater withdrawal, which is generally considered the most significant driver. However, at present our understanding of subsidence is not complete, though the phenomenon has been observed for more than a century.

 Earth’s surface experiences natural uplift and subsidence due to various geological processes such as glacial retreat or earthquake. As mentioned above groundwater withdrawal almost always promote subsidence. Subsidence most often occurs on coastal sedimentary plains and deltas, - inland sedimentary plains often show similar behavior. In coastal areas, subsidence also contributes to relative sea level rise.

Over the past decade, advances in satellite imaging technology have enabled scientists to measure down to millimeter-scale changes in land level over days to years. Using measurements from the satellite Sentinal-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and ground-based GPS data, Zurui Ao and colleagues examined land subsidence in 82 of China’s major cities from 2015 to 2022. InSAR uses highly precise radar pulses to measure the change in distance between the satellite and the ground surface and can detect changes in elevation down to millimeters per year.  

In the study cited above Ao et al. found that 45% of the studied urban land area is subsiding faster than 3 millimeters per year (mm/year), and as much as 16% is subsiding at a rate of 10 mm/year or more. These sinking lands contain 29% and 7% of China’s urban population, respectively. This is a concern because the impacts of subsidence in urban areas include direct damage to buildings and foundations, infrastructure, drains, and sewage systems. It also exacerbates the occurrence and effects of flooding, especially in coastal cities, compounding climate change.

Ao et al were not able to attribute the measured subsidence to specific physical causes (building weight, groundwater withdrawal, landfill etc.) because they lacked data and models of the various processes that can or do contribute to subsidence. Predicting or slowing future subsidence requires an understanding of all the causes, including human activities and climate change, and how they might change with time. 

from Ao et al

The authors speculate on what some of the causes might be based on previous work in subsidence. The first factor is the geological setting beneath the city. Closely related with the geological setting is the weight of buildings-China has had an extraordinary speed of urban construction in the past 3 decades. Ao et al found that the later the building was constructed, the faster the subsidence tends to be, and counter intuitively  they found that heavier buildings tend to subside more slowly.  The authors speculated that heavier buildings are anchored on deeper bedrock and are therefore less prone to subside. A major factor identified is groundwater loss, which decreases pore pressure and leads to subsurface compaction. This has been observed worldwide including the coastal plain of the eastern united states.

The Digital Gateway- Rezoning and Taxes

I have been tracking the bills that pertain to Data Centers in the current legislative session. Wednesday was cross over when the bills that passed the Senate go to the House and vice versa. In general the bills to control data center development have not been doing well. One bills in this group is a special interest tax code bill written to benefit the landowners of the Prince William Digital Gateway rezoning. It is carried by Senator McPike McPike, a Democrat, who represents a large portion of Prince William County but not the Digital Gateway corridor.

The PW Digital Gateway is a project in which QTS and Compass Datacenters are planning to develop over 2,100 acres of greenfield land adjacent to the Manassas National Battlefield Park for a massive industrial data center development consisting of up to 34 buildings and over 22 million square feet complete with fenced security, electric substations and backup diesel microgrid of hundreds of industrial sized backup generators and transmission lines.

Through a land acquisition entity QTS, has contracted to buy the Digital Gateway landowner's property for their development at life changing valuations of millions of dollars. Those purchases stand to drastically increase the value of the land, but the sale is contingent on two data center zoning approvals being declared final and unappealable. In the meantime, the current property owners are responsible for the property taxes and liens.

Several opponents of the  PW Digital Gateway have sued. The data center companies involved in the project, QTS and Compass Datacenters, filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit, but the PWC Circuit Court Judge Kimberly Irving declined to dismiss the case. Saying she needed more evidence about a key argument: whether Prince William County fulfilled its legal requirements to properly advertise the public hearing before the vote on the PW Digital Gateway rezoning, she scheduled an evidentiary hearing for March 6, 2025. 

Under the current state tax code the tax rate goes up and deferred taxes for the five tax years of 2018, 2019,2020,2021 and 2022 become due immediately. The recovered taxes are due to losses in agriculture and open space exemptions that were previously granted. The Digital Gateway homeowners sued the county for tax relief. However, the Circuit Court found that there is really no remedy under the current tax code. Prince William County had already  discounted the tax due by 75%  for uncertainty though the increase in taxes was eye popping- tens of thousands of dollars up to hundreds of thousands of dollars due to the county.

Enter Senator McPike who despite not representing the property owners has carried a bill through the state senate to change the state tax code to benefit these property owners and others who may be engaged in having their properties rezoned and then banking the property.

The Prince William Times reports: “So far, the county is owed at least $1.9 million in real estate taxes from Digital Gateway landowners because they are refusing to pay the full tax bills on their recently rezoned land, according to Nikki Brown, a county spokeswoman.  McPike has received thousands in donations from data center interests, including the landowners who would directly benefit from his bill. In 2024, he received more than $20,000 from data center and construction interests. Since 2021, he has received an additional $15,000 from donors involved in the Digital Gateway, according to campaign finance reports.” 

Look, I am thoroughly unhappy with the development of greenfield agriculture land into industrial uses, the lack of management and planning for the electric demand and power infrastructure (and water) needed for this uncontrolled building of data centers and the intensity of industrial development. I am angry about the way the project seemed to be rammed through, and I am furious about the appearance that data center companies bought themselves supervisors and state senators. However, I do not feel it is right to bankrupt our neighbors who were tempted with life changing wealth to sign a bad contract. (Really, they should have had better legal representation.) I do not want to destroy their lives (though they seem not to care about the rest of us). I believe the bill will pass if the performance in the Senate chamber is any indication. The scope of this change in the tax code needs to be limited to this one project and let the courts settle it. The bill and summary appear below.

UPDATE: Well I was wrong. The bill was laid on the Table in the House Subcommittee on Friday, February 14, 2025. 

SB 1305 - Local taxes; change to zoning ordinances, etc.

Patron: McPike

Status: Passed Senate< UPDATE Houses  Counties Cities and Towns - Subcommittee #3 Voted to lay on the table.

A BILL to amend and reenact §§ 58.1-3237 and 58.1-3285 of the Code of Virginia, relating to local taxes; zoning; assessments; ordinances.

SUMMARY AS INTRODUCED:

Local taxes; zoning; assessments; injunctions; ordinances. Provides that for purposes of real estate subject to a special tax assessment for land preservation by local ordinance, a change to the zoning ordinance shall only be effective following (i) the approval of the relevant modification in the zoning classification of real estate; (ii) the exhaustion of the challenge or appeal period; and (iii) if pending, the final determination of any challenge or appeal made within such period.

The bill also provides that for purposes of subdivided or rezoned lots, the assessment or reassessment required by law shall only be effective following (a) the approval of a modification in the zoning classification of the subject real estate, an exception to zoning or classification of the subject real estate, or a reclassification of the subject real estate; (b) the exhaustion of the challenge or appeal period for such approvals; or (c) if pending, the final determination of any such challenge or appeal made within such period.

The bill also authorizes the circuit court to issue an injunction to stay the collection of taxes during the pendency of any application to the circuit court for an assessment correction upon a showing of (1) a bona fide hardship caused by such assessment and (2) a bona fide financial inability to satisfy such assessed tax obligation. Any injunction so issued shall not remain in effect later than when a final determination is made on the merits of an assessment correction application. Under current law, no suit for the purpose of restraining the assessment or collection of any local tax shall be maintained in any court of the Commonwealth, except when the party has no adequate remedy at law.

Finally, the bill provides that any zoning ordinance enacted after December 1, 2023, shall not become effective until the later of either (A) the exhaustion of the period within which a decision of the local governing body may be contested or (B) if pending, the date of final determination for all actions related to a contested decision of the local governing body.

Drought Continues to Build

The water year runs from October 1 to September 30^th. Thanks to a very wet December and January in the 2023- 2024 water year, last year was only about an inch of rainfall short of the average here in Haymarket despite and extremely dry spring and summer. This year is shaping up differently. Despite the rain this past weekend, where I got under an inch of rain in my gauge, we are still 6 inches of rain behind normal. Not only Haymarket, but the entire Potomac River watershed has had a dry winter.

from CoCoRHaS 5.5 N Haymarket, VA

Virginia generally receives about 44 inches of precipitation per year in Prince William County and over 40 inches in all of the Commonwealth and is historically considered “water rich" area. However, droughts are not uncommon, Virginia has a history of multi-year droughts. The climate forecasts for the region call for longer and more sever droughts and wetter non-drought years. The graph below shows the frequency of drought years since 2000. As you can see, so far the droughts we have seen have been very mild by historical standards. 

 

from NOAA

Below is the groundwater picture at USGS monitoring well 49V in the Northwest corner of Prince William County.  It is clear from the first USGS graph that the groundwater level in well 49V  has falling for 15 or more years. The groundwater is being used up. In the second graph you can see that for decades before that the groundwater level was fairly stable, but the monitoring was not continuous in those days (thus the little circles). The PW BOCS has recently approved the funding to begin groundwater studies and monitoring. 

from USGS

Virginia is dependent on groundwater. According to information from Virginia Tech, the Rural Household Water Quality program and the National Groundwater Association approximately 30% of Virginians are entirely dependent on groundwater for their drinking water. In Prince William County about a fifth of residents get their water directly from groundwater, including the Evergreen/Bull Run distribution system. However, the health of our watersheds and stream flow are dependent on groundwater, too.  Groundwater provides the baseflow to the rivers and streams. While groundwater is ubiquitous in Virginia it is not unlimited. There are already problems with availability, quality and sustainability of groundwater in Virginia in places such as Fauquier County, Loudoun County and the Coastal Plain. 

from ICPRB

After weeks of frigid temperatures, ice is now breaking up in the river and we are able to see the flow on USGS gages. The blue block on the graph below indicates no data due to ice. The flow (blue line) at Point of Rocks is 3,330 cubic feet per second (cfs). The median (gray line) for this time of year is 8,500 cfs. We are currently at less than 40% of median flow.

 

Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Potomac River basin shows 75% of the area is in Moderate Drought conditions and 12% is in Sever Drought (mostly the south eastern section of the watershed which includes the eastern portion of Prince William county). This is an increase in Moderate Drought conditions over last week’s map.

 

The DC metropolitan area remains in the Drought Watch declared by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) back in July. Officials are asking everyone to use water wisely during this time. The COG Drought Coordination Technical Committee will convene on March 7 to evaluate the drought declaration.