NOAA Predicts an above-normal 2020 Hurricane Season

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an above normal 2020 hurricane season. They are predicting a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those forecast storms 6 to 10 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service provides these forecasts with a 70% confidence level. In an average hurricane season in the Atlantic there are 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

from NOAA

  “NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator.“ Several climate factors have contributed to the strong likelihood for above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity. Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likely intensity of the hurricane season.

The World Meteorological Organization has already published the list of names for this season’s storms. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. Though the first named storm of the season, Arthur, occurred in earlier in May and Bertha hit Florida earlier this week. 

from NOAA

Hurricane preparedness is critically important. Keep in mind, you may need to adjust any preparedness plans and actions based on the latest health and safety guidelines from the CDC for covid-19 and your local restrictions. Visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on any watches and warnings.