China Pledges Carbon Neutrality by 2060

President Xi Jinping announced in September at a virtual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly that China, the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, will become carbon neutral by 2060, and to begin cutting its emissions within 10 years when their population peaks. Under President Xi Jinping goal emissions would continue to rise, from 9.8 gigatonnes of CO2 in 2020 and continue to rise until around 2030 and reach net zero by 2060.

Several Chinese research groups have been working to develop proposals to achieve this goal. According to Nature magazine: “The plans differ in their details, but agree that China must first begin to generate most of its electricity from zero-emission sources, and then expand the use of this clean power wherever possible, for example switching from petrol-fuelled cars to electric ones. It will also need technologies that can capture CO2 released from burning fossil fuels or biomass and store it underground, known as carbon capture and storage (CCS).”

Coal-fired power accounts for almost 65% of the country’s current electricity generation, with more than 200 new coal-fired power stations planned or under construction right now. How China plans to achieve this goal is not yet known, but officials are in the process of drafting the country’s next five-year plan which is expected to include policies to achieve neutrality when it is released in March.

Until now, China has claimed exemption from CO2 reduction requirements. It’s pledge under the Paris accord was to have its emissions peak by 2030 when its population is forecast to begin declining. It is assumed that CO2 neutrality will include reducing the other greenhouse-gas emissions to net zero, but that was not stated by President Xi Jinping.

One of the research groups, Tsingua University’s Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, proposed a route to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. In their plan electricity production would need to more than double, to 15,034 terawatt hours by 2060, largely from clean sources. This growth would be driven by an increase in renewable electricity generation including a 16-fold increase in solar and a 9-fold increase in wind, nuclear power would need to increase 6-fold, and hydroelectricity to double. In a centrally planned and controlled economy this level of change over a short period of time is possible. I look forward to China’s release of their plan for emissions reduction and changing their commitments under to Paris accord to reflect their new CO2 emissions goals.

More Climate Talks, But It's Too Late

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Doha, Qatar to once more discuss, negotiate and talk about climate change has reached the halfway point. Concerns crystallized by the recent damage from Hurricane Sandy have resulted in 17,000 attending the conference, but that is the only good news. The goal of all these meetings is to negotiate a new agreement by 2015 that will become effective by 2020 to replace and expand the Kyoto Protocol. If an agreement can be negotiated, and this is a big if, it will extend CO2 mitigation requirements to all countries, both developed and developing. Environmental activists and climate scientists, the Alliance of Small Island States, the Africa Group and the Least Developed Countries group are all calling for deeper carbon cuts now to avert climate impacts. However, if the climate models are correct, it's too late. The die is cast.  Though many nations had pledged to keep global warming from exceeding two degrees Celsius, according to the climate models the CO2 emissions trend will produce between 3 and 5 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures and we should be planning for the future we will have and hope for a better one.

According to the International Energy Agency, IEA, 2011 estimates of world CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, World CO2 emissions rose by 1 billion metric tons in 2011, a 3.2 % increase  to reach 31.6 billion metric tons. In 2011 the top four world generators of CO2 emission from fossil fuels were in descending order China, the United States, the European Union and India who edged out Russia to take the number four slot. There is no short term action that will stop the CO2 concentrations from reaching the climate model project tipping point of 32.6 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions annually just 1 billion metric tons above current levels and the amount the world emissions increased last year.

China, the largest emitter of CO2 increased their emissions the most. China contributed almost three quarters of the global increase, with its emissions rising by 720 million metric tons, or 9.3% to 8.46 billion metric tons of CO2, primarily due to higher coal consumption. India’s emissions rose by 140 million metric tons or 8.7% to 1.75 billion metric tons. CO2 emissions in the United States in 2011 fell by 92 million metric tons of CO2 or 1.7% to an estimated 5.32 billion metric tons.  U.S. emissions have now fallen by 430 million metric tons or 7.7% since 2006, the largest reduction of all countries or regions. Unfortunately, this decrease has been made practically meaningless by the unrelenting growth in China and India.

China’s chief climate negotiator Xie Zhenhua recently announced that China’s CO2 emission would peak around 2030, pointing out that its per capita gross domestic product would have only reached half the level of other developed countries’ CO2 emissions when they peaked. No comment was made on the projected peak per capita CO2 emissions. In 2010 China surpassed the US in manufactured output, energy use and car sales. According to the International Monetary Fund, IMF, China will shortly be the world's largest economy. However, while the economy has been growing leaps and bounds, China's total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman has during her lifetime) has fallen to 1.56. The United Nations now projects that China’s population will peak in 2026. So after China’s population begins to decrease, they anticipate that their CO2 emission will peak. Yeah, I would project that, too-it is the natural course of events.  China’s delegate to the current conference,  Su Wei, indicated that they expect China and other developing countries to remain exempted from CO2 reduction requirements for the next treaty making the current discussion entirely pointless and changes the direction the negotiations should take. The world needs to develop plans to survive the bulge in CO2 emissions and any climate consequences from China's sprint to peak population and peak CO2 emissions.

From the Economist using UN data

Unlike the rest of the developed world, China's population control policy of one child will cause the nation to grow old before it grows rich. In 2010 8.2% of China's total population was over 65. The over 65 segment it is expected to grow to 26% by 2050. Right now China represents approximately 20% of the world's population. As their population ages and declines, CO2 emissions are expected to stabilize and decline. For comparison in the United States 13% of the population is over 65 and that is forecast to grow to 21% by 2050. U.S. CO2 emissions are falling and our nation is well on track to meet the President’s promise of reducing CO2 emissions 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. Though, the CO2 emissions per capita in the United States is still three times the level in China. As the population of the United States continues to grow, to  be able to grow GDP and reduce CO2 emissions would be a significant achievement. Unfortunately, this decrease will be made almost meaningless by the unrelenting growth in CO2 emissions in China and India. We have little leverage and no control over those nations and so the global CO2 levels will continue to grow until those nations peak. Possibly we should be planning for moving population centers away from the coastal estuaries to better survive rising oceans and increasing storm intensity. 

Chart from IEA 2012 publication

The CO2 Tipping Point Not Yet Reached- Oceans and Vegetation Absorb More Carbon

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

The International Energy Agency, IEA, estimates that world CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion rose by 1 billion metric tons in 2011, a 3.2 % increase over 2010 to reach 31.6 billion metric tons (34.83 billion tons). In 2011 the top four world generators of CO2 emission from fossil fuels were in descending order China, the United States, the European Union and India who edged out Russia to take the number four slot. China contributed almost three quarters of the global increase, with its emissions rising by 720 million metric tons, or 9.3% to 8.46 billion metric tons of CO2, primarily due to higher coal consumption to produce electricity. Increases in the CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion in 2012 is likely to be less since electricity use in China is up only 1% this year.

Nonetheless, the world CO2 emissions continue to increase. IEA not only collects data it also makes progress reports, and makes recommendations for implementing carbon dioxide controls worldwide to preventing the world from reaching the “Tipping Point” where global temperatures cannot be held within 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Initially, the climate science establishment thought the Tipping Point would be reached when world CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuel reached 32.6 billion metric tons of CO2 annually and global CO2 concentrations reached 450 parts per million. The “Tipping Point” was the 450 Scenario which limits global warming to 2 degrees by limiting concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2. We are currently very close to the 32.6 billion metric tons (just 1 billion metric tons above 2011 levels and the amount the world emissions increased last year.) However, though the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 continue to rise, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, reports that CO2 concentrations have risen just 2.33 parts per million to 392.41 parts per million from August 2011 to August 2012.

Despite sharp increases in carbon dioxide emissions from burning fuel the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has not increased as quickly. There appears to be a buffer provided by Earth’s vegetation and oceanswhich continue to soak up about half of the carbon dioxide emissions each year (though of course impact on marine ecology should be of concern) according to arecently published study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder. The study, led by Dr. Ashley Ballantyne, looked at global CO2 emissions reports from the past 50 years and compared them with rising levels of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere during that time. The results showed that while CO2 emissions had quadrupled, natural carbon “sinks” that sequester the greenhouse gas doubled their uptake of CO2 in the past 50 years, potentially lessening the warming impacts on Earth’s climate.

The study showed global CO2 uptake by Earth’s sinks essentially doubled from 1960 to 2010, although increased variations from year-to-year and decade-to-decade suggests some instability in the global carbon cycle. According to the study, CO2 uptake by Earth’s land and oceans decreased in the 1990s (when most of the climate models were developed), followed by increased CO2 sequestering by the planet from 2000 to 2010. “Seeing such variation from decade to decade tells us that we need to observe Earth’s carbon cycle for significantly longer periods in order to help us understand what is occurring,” said Dr. Ballantyne. Marine Biologists are deeply concerned about the impact of increasing uptake of CO2 by the world’s oceans. Dissolved CO2 in the ocean forms carbonic acid making the oceans more acidic and damaging coral, the fundamental structure of coral reef ecosystems that harbor 25% of the world’s fish species.Take a look at the article in Nature (if you want to spend the money).