Pay For Actual Pollution Reductions

If you recall, in 2010 the EPA set a limit for release of nutrients and sediment into the Chesapeake Bay watershed that was then partitioned to the six  states (and Washington DC) watershed based on the Chesapeake Bay computer model and monitoring data. Likeall government programs it will never die, but continually evolve and grow.

All six Bay watershed states and the District of Columbia were required to submit plans spelling out the measures each would take by 2025 to achieve the needed pollution reductions. Then each year, EPA would evaluate the progress in implementing mitigation measures or practices. The model then would be used to estimate the amount of nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment that would make it to the Bay under average conditions.

Only the District of Columbia and West Virginia have so far met their 2025 goals. The rest of us continue to struggle to implement all the measures outlined in our plans. The goal was to have all the practices in place by 2025 to meet the Chesapeake Bay Clean Water Blueprint restoration goals as predicted by the computer model forecasts.

Virginia continues to lag behind its goals. Virginia achieved its 2023 nitrogen targets for the James basin but did not achieve its 2023 targets for nitrogen in the other major basins (Potomac, Rappahannock, York, and Eastern Shore). Virginia did not achieve its 2023 phosphorus targets for any major basin.  In their “suggestions for improvement” EPA recommended that Virginia target implementation of nonpoint sources of pollution in the urban/suburban stormwater sector and the agricultural sector using the cost share BMP implementation programs.

As Virginia struggles to meet our 2025 Chesapeake Bay clean up goals, DEQ has announced a new $20 million Pay-For-Outcomes Nonpoint Source Pollution Reduction grant program. This is similar to a program that Maryland adopted last year. This one-year pilot program will provide payments based on the number of pounds of pollution actually removed or prevented.

DEQ intends that the Pay-For-Outcomes program will reverse the script and identify the most cost-effective means of reducing nonpoint source pollution and encourage innovation. All this is intended to move us forward in the Chesapeake Bay cleanup. The truth is, thought the Ag BMP modeling is backed by scientific calculations, there isn’t a full verification to guarantee water quality is improving after a practice is installed. The cleanup is further challenged by all the land use changes as the region continues to develop urban and industrial sprawl of higher density housing and data centers.

Under the DEQ Pay-For Outcomes program, any business, nonprofit, government entity, or individual may apply for grants ranging from $100,000 to $7.5 million to reduce the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution entering Virginia’s Chesapeake Bay watershed. The proposals may rely on Best Management Practices already commonly used in Virginia or may offer novel technologies based on sound science.

The applicants will need to identify the price per pound of pollution that will reduced, and payments will be based on the actual reductions. A panel of professors chosen as scientific experts will review the proposals and rank each primarily on cost per pound of pollution reduction but with consideration to habitat and resilience benefits, readiness to proceed, and other factors.

Applications are due Feb. 3, 2025. A mandatorypre-application webinar will be held on January 6, 2025. Stay tuned for furtherinformation.

Cats in Hats Pain Study

Aliénor Delsart, Aude Castel, Guillaume Dumas, Colombe Otis, Mathieu Lachance, Maude Barbeau-Grégoire, Bertrand Lussier, Franck Péron, Marc Hébert, Nicolas Lapointe, Maxim Moreau, Johanne Martel-Pelletier, Jean-Pierre Pelletier, Eric Troncy, Non-invasive electroencephalography in awake cats: Feasibility and application to sensory processing in chronic pain, Journal of Neuroscience Methods, Volume 411, 2024, 110254, ISSN 0165-0270, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jneumeth.2024.110254.

The following was excerpted from the article cited above and the press release.

When being tested for chronic pain from common conditions like osteoarthritis, awake cats tend to shake off and chew the wired electrodes placed on their heads to produce electroencephalograms (EEGs). Scientists at the Veterinary School of the Université de Montréal have found a way to scan the brains of cats while they’re awake, using electrodes attached under specially knitted wool caps (and apparently a sweater).

Feline osteoarthritis leads to chronic pain. In humans, sensory exposure can modulate chronic pain. The scientists were interested in determining if that might work in cats.  In recent studies of human pain using electroencephalography (EEG) revealed a specific brain signature for human osteoarthritis. However, EEG pain characterization or its modulation did not exist in cats, because all EEG were conducted in sedated cats, using intradermal electrodes, which could alter sensory (pain) perception.

 To overcome cat rejection of the electrodes, a wool hat was specially made for the study. The hat is described as knitted in the press release, but looks like it may be crocheted in a couple of the pictures.  The little cap held the electrodes in place even during cat movements. One of the graduate students was able to make the caps. For anyone who is interested in this there are several YouTube videos, and the “Cats in Hats” pattern book can be found on amazon patterns are also available on Etsy. Yes, I once actually knitted little kitty hats as part of Halloween outfits for my cats. Only one of my cats was happy to wear it, but she was perfectly content to do so.  

EEG evaluations of lights and scents impact on pain were performed in conscious cats, in a quiet and dim-lighted). Ten gold-plated surface electrodes were placed without shaving the hair under the caps. After assessing their stress and pain through stimuli passed through the electrodes, the scientists then went about exposing the cats to soothing stimuli such as colored lights and comforting smells, to ease their suffering.

This is the first successful use of EEGs in conscious cats with surface electrodes recording brain activity while exposing them to sensory stimulations. Though they seemingly did not find lights or scents that would ease pain, the scientists felt this work opens new avenues for investigating feline chronic pain and its potential modulation through sensory interventions. No doubt, further work will discover that a heating pad reduces the pain. I am just guessing that based on the five cats that have been part of our family over the years. Though I poke gentle fun at the research, I welcome this work because there have been several times over the decades that I wanted to know if a cat was in pain, and what they were feeling.

The study was approved by the Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee. The care and handling of all cats adhered to the Canadian Council on Animal Care’s guidelines. Adult neutered cats (n=11 (6 females); [3–16] years) with naturally occurring OA were enrolled in the study. Cats were selected based on their behavioral compliance- willingness to wear hats and lie still in while staying awake. 

 This study was partially funded by the Morris Animal Foundation (A.CA. & E.TR.). This work was sponsored, in part, by Discovery grants, a Collaborative Research and Development grant, as well as by an ongoing New Opportunities Fund grant , a Leader Opportunity Fund grant and a series of research groups.

 

Economic Impacts on DMV from Water Supply Disruption

 

Below is excerpted from the press release, the entire press conference and report are linked below:

Last week, the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) released a new report highlighting the significant and dire financial consequences facing the Washington, D.C., region in the event of a disruption to the area’s water supply.

In just one month, a significant disruption from threats like infrastructure failures or natural disasters in D.C. region’s water supply could result in a loss of $15 billion in gross regional product (GRP) and hundreds of millions in tax losses, according to the report, “The Economic and Fiscal Costs of Water Supply Disruption to the National Capital Region.”

“The Potomac River is the single source of drinking water for Washington  D.C. and provides water for roughly five million people in the region,” said ICPRB Executive Director Michael Nardolilli. “It is integral to the functioning of the nation’s capital. This report clearly shows that any disruption to the water supply would have catastrophic economic consequences for the region, especially for the most vulnerable residents of our nation’s capital. Securing the resilience of our water infrastructure is not just a priority, it’s a necessity.”

“The interconnectedness of our region means that water supply disruptions would have far-reaching consequences affecting the District of Columbia as well as our neighboring communities in Virginia and Maryland,” said COG Board Chair and District of Columbia Councilmember Charles Allen. “This report underscores the importance of regional collaboration in safeguarding our water resources and why COG is working with our partners to ensure a backup water source for the region.”

“DC Water’s motto, ‘Water is life,’ reflects how seriously we, as the water authority for the nation’s capital, take our role in supplying our customers with abundant, safe and reliable water,” said David L. Gadis, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and General Manager of DC Water. “Resilience in the water sector, one of DC Water’s five strategic imperatives, is crucial not only for our success, but also for the health and wellbeing of the customers who depend on DC Water. This water supply vulnerability must be addressed to protect our city now and for the future generations to come.”

“Our region’s economic vitality and quality of life are directly tied to clean, reliable water resources,” said Jack McDougle, President and CEO of the Greater Washington Board of Trade. “This report highlights that a disruption in the water supply would not only harm the local economy but also have a disproportionate impact on the diverse business sectors and people who contribute to the vibrancy of our nation’s capital the Greater Washington region. This includes small, minority-owned, women-owned, and veteran-owned enterprises, which are at greater risk of permanent closure if forced to shut down due to water supply disruptions. It is imperative that we confront this challenge proactively to safeguard our thriving region and everything it has to offer.”

“Federal investment in our nation’s water infrastructure is essential to protect all communities from the devastating impacts infrastructure failures can have on operations,” said Mae Stevens, CEO of the American Business Water Coalition. “Restoring the country’s water systems to meet the needs of the population is expected to cost more than $1.25 trillion over the next 20 years, a figure far too large for utilities, companies and private citizens to meet alone. Congress needs to recognize this as a critical need and close the funding gap so that we can better protect the D.C. region and our nation against devastating water supply disruptions.”

Yet every time the federal government has funded infrastructure with massive programs, we have short changed water and sewer infrastructure, instead funding programs less critical to our survival than water availability.

Key findings presented in the report include:

• Economic impact: The report estimates that a significant water supply disruption could result in losses of almost $15 billion in gross regional product (GRP) and hundreds of millions in tax losses, all within the first month.
• Disproportionate impact: Small, women-owned and minority-owned businesses are particularly vulnerable to the effects of water supply disruption, with potential losses that could devastate their operations and subsequently, impact the livelihoods of their employees. Supply disruption would additionally have a greater impact on lower-income households that have fewer financial resources to mitigate the loss of services.
• Sectoral vulnerability: Major sectors, including healthcare, food and beverage, chemical manufacturing and arts & entertainment, are identified as being at severe risk, underscoring the necessity for enhanced infrastructure resilience and preparedness.

The report’s sponsors including the regional water companies, called for Congressional action to fund crucial infrastructure projects to ensure greater resiliency in the D.C. region’s water supply and safeguard the health and safety of both the public and the economy. 

Fairfax Water Qauality

 

Every year public water suppliers are required to issue an annual drinking water quality report to their customers before July first of the following year. In June Fairfax Water released their report which can be found in its entirety at this link.  Fairfax Water owns and operates the James J. Corbalis Jr. and the Frederick P. Griffith Jr. treatment plants. These plants are the primary source of water for most of Fairfax County and portions of Loudoun County and Prince William County. Fairfax Water acquired the City of Falls Church water distribution system as well as an area that serves approximately 120,000 people and obtain their water from the Dalecarlia and McMillan treatment plants, part of the Washington Aqueduct which is owned and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

The result is that now Fairfax Water provides water to county residents from their two water treatment plants and buys water from the Washington Aqueduct to supply residents in and around the City of Falls Church. These were historic systems that were once town owned. The newer developments around Merrifield and the Dunn Loring Metro Station are supplied water from the Fairfax Water owned plants. Thus, they are required to report on the water quality of all these sources. 

Both the Washington Aqueduct and Fairfax Water run excellent water treatment plants. All four plants use advanced technologies and practices in drinking-water treatment, which is the process of cleaning raw water to make it safe to drink. Fairfax Water reports that their water consistently surpasses all federal (US EPA Safe Drinking Water Act) and state standards. Of the 182 compounds that are required to be tested for, very few were found in the finished drinking water. Those found were in concentrations well below the EPA’s maximum contaminant levels under the Safe Drinking Water Act. Fairfax Water’s state-certified Water Quality Laboratory performs or manages the testing required by federal and state regulations. The Washington Aqueduct does the testing for the water they supply. 

Two issues emerged from the review of the water quality report. The first is the rising salt level in the Occoquan Reservoir and from the Potomac River. From comparing the Washington Aqueduct numbers to the Fairfax Water numbers it is clear that the Occoquan Reservoir has a higher level of salinity than the Potomac River, but both levels are rising. Sodium is a secondary contaminant in drinking water it is recommended that the level be controlled below 20 mg/L by the EPA.

The ICPRB, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) and the Northern Virginia Regional Commission have developed a voluntary Salt Management Strategy published in 2020 to try and reduce the largest source of salt/ chloride to the Potomac, its tributaries and the Occoquan Watershed, but this alone may not slow the increasing salinization of our source water for drinking as road construction continues at an alarming pace. As we try to encourage the adoption of the voluntary salt management strategy, we keep building roads and paving over the counties.

Sodium and chloride the elements that make up salt and break apart in water are washed off road by rain and melting snow and flow into local waterways or seep through soils into groundwater systems with negative impacts on water quality and the environment. Salts pollute drinking water sources and are very costly to remove. The only available technology to remove salt from the source water is reverse osmosis which could cost Fairfax Water alone $1-2 billion to install and requires a significant amount of energy to run. 

The second problem that was seen in the water quality report was the presence of PFAS above the target regulatory level. In April 2024, the EPA announced the final national primary drinking water standards for six poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Public water systems have five years (by 2029) to implement solutions that reduce these PFAS if monitoring shows that drinking water levels exceed the maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Fairfax Water has stated that they will ensure their water meets these standards by the regulatory date.

Even with these issues, the quality of the finished drinking water being produced at Washington Aqueduct and Fairfax Water meets or exceeds all United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) current standards and requirements. The water quality report released in June covers the sampling done during calendar year 2023. There were no violations of the U.S. EPA’s Safe Drinking Water Act.

Water Rates

Water bills in our region have been increasing, but imagine my surprise when I saw the regional water rates posted by Fairfax Water .  At first glance the water rates appeared to have gone down, but like many things instead had suffered shrinkflation. The amount of water in the standard quarterly bill was reduced from 18,000 gallons to 15,000 gallons. So, rates indeed went up again. Manassas Park has reclaimed its title of most expensive water in the region grabbing it back from the Town of Leesburg.

There is no true “cost” of water, the price charged for water, often does not reflect its value or true cost.  Recently, Fairfax Water announced its intention to raise their water rates next spring as they do almost every winter. There will be, as usual, a public hearing on Thursday, December 12, 2024, on the proposed rate increase held at Fairfax Water’s main office at 8570 Executive Park Avenue in Fairfax. This rate increase is part of their ongoing program to ensure that the water infrastructure in Fairfax County is maintained. The proposed rate increase will go into effect April 1, 2025. Visit Fairfaxwater.org/rates for a complete list of rate and fee increases.

The need for infrastructure replacement is an issue that has caused significant service problems and rate increases in other parts of the Washington Metropolitan region. Fairfax Water Board of Directors have dedicated funding to infrastructure maintenance and replacement for many years and has forecast future capital needs for replacing water mains in the system. The Town of Leesburg did not have a capital program in place. 

Every time they propose to raise water rates, Fairfax Water performs a comparison of the water costs throughout the Washington Metropolitan region. I have tracked this information over the years, and was shocked to see rates decrease this year, until I read the footnote. The comparison of rates as of July 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023 was base on a quarterly use of 18,000 gallons of residential water . In 2024 Fairfax Water choose to change the quantity of water used for the comparison to 15,000. This will not only appear to reduce rates but might also change the excess charges. I adjusted up the rates by 120% to make them more or less comparable to previous years. Fairfax Water’s rate has returned to the lowest in the Washington metropolitan region, but they choose the comparison rules.  Fairfax Water sells water to Prince William Service Authority, American Water, Manassas Park and others.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Coming to Life

In May when NOAA made their hurricane season forecast, they predicted a very busy hurricane season with 18 to 35 named storms. Pointing out that atmospheric and oceanic conditions have set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season. Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

from NOAA

“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. Hurricane activity slowed after that initial burst.

In the Atlantic basin, a typical season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes. In their mid-season update last month NOAA reported that Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90% probability of this result. 2024 has only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season.

In their routine mid-season hurricane outlook update, forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated the number of expected named storms to 17-24 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 8-13 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 4-7 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This was confirmed by NOAA at a time when there had been only 4 named storms.

A transition to La Niña and high ocean temperatures are the usual conditions that create a busy storm season. Although La Niña was developing, it was slower than expected. Now, NOAA reports that the progression towards La Niña is picking up pace, creating the right conditions for storm formation.

According to NOAA: “Scientists say that while the historical record shows an increase in the number of Atlantic hurricanes since the early 1900s, this record does not reflect how much easier it has become to identify hurricanes since we began using satellites. Once this is factored in, scientists say there has been no significant overall increase in Atlantic hurricanes since the late 1800s.”

“On a shorter time frame, however, the numbers of Atlantic hurricanes have increased… as the tropical North Atlantic warmed and atmospheric conditions became conducive to increased hurricane activity, similar to what occurred during the mid-20th century… One influence is a variation in North Atlantic Ocean temperatures called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which has cool and warm phases historically lasting 25-40 years each. During its warm phase, North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are unusually warm compared to the tropical average and the atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic are conducive to hurricane activity.”

Meanwhile, ocean waters, particularly around the coast, remain extremely warm. That lays the groundwork for storms to rapidly intensify once they do develop. The Atlantic hurricane season usually reaches its peak around 10 September, and activity has picked up in the last week with the formation of storms Ernesto, Francine and Gordon.

A low-pressure system, not even classified as a tropical storm, dumped over a foot of water on North Carolina in less than 6 hours. It is too early to declare the hurricane season an inactive one. It may yet come to life or at least bring enough water to the Potomac Watershed to pull us out of the drought we’ve fallen into. Let’s hope for some rain here. Though, mindful of North Carolina I shall be careful what I wish for.

New National Landslide Map

Benjamin B. Mirus, Gina M. Belair, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne Jones, Sabrina N. Martinez, Parsimonious High-Resolution Landslide Susceptibility Modeling at Continental Scales, First published: 11 September 2024. Parsimonious High‐Resolution Landslide Susceptibility Modeling at Continental Scales - Mirus - 2024 - AGU Advances - Wiley Online Library 

The below is executed from the above cited article and the USGS press release.

Landslides when rock, debris, and soil move downhill at rates that ranging from inches per year to tens of miles per hour are a significant threat. Some move faster than a person can run, some can happen with no notice or can take place over a period of days, weeks, or longer.  Landslides occur in any area composed of very weak or fractured materials resting on a steep slope. This can happen in every state of the union. Reducing loss of life and minimizing community disruptions from future landslides requires an understanding of landslide potential and related direct and indirect effects. 

Now the U.S. Geological Survey has released a new nationwide landslide susceptibility map that finds nearly 44% of the U.S. could potentially experience landslides. The new assessment provides a highly detailed, county-by-county picture of where these damaging, disruptive and potentially deadly geologic hazards are more likely as well as areas where landslide hazards are negligible.

The new map will support risk-reduction and land-use planning efforts by showing where potentially unstable areas are so planners and engineers can better prioritize and mitigate future landslide hazards.“This new national landslide susceptibility map addresses an important but difficult question: which areas across the entire U.S. are prone to landslides?” said Ben Mirus, USGS research geologist. “We are excited that it is now publicly available to help everyone be more prepared – to be a more hazard-ready nation.”

As you can see below the fractured rock slopes of Virginia are susceptible to landslides.

In the past two decades, there have been several efforts to combine landslide-occurrence data with geospatial technology to develop more accurate and precise landslide-susceptibility maps. The USGS and collaborators proposed a prototype landslide-susceptibility map to inform potential landslide insurance policies (Godt et al., 2012). Their map was based on the empirical analysis of approximately 16,000 landslides from five inventories across as many different states to calibrate a landslide threshold for topographic slope and relief.

This  detailed landslide map was only developed for a few areas of the U.S. where the landslide risks were considered high, but now using all data available and better computer modeling tools this map expands the assessment to include many other hazardous areas around the country where there was a limited understanding of landslide potential.

Ben Mirus and the current research team used an inventory of nearly 1 million previous landslides, high-resolution national elevation data from the USGS 3D Elevation Program, and advanced computing to build their comprehensive landslide susceptibility model. The resulting map of the contiguous U.S., Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico zeroes in on landslide locations by using much higher resolution data than existing continental and global landslide maps.

The primary goal of the research team was to develop a high-resolution model based on empirical evidence that consistently delineates areas with any potential for landsliding across the entire country, while at the same time not over-representing hazardous areas. The secondary goal was to explore ways to express relative differences in landslide susceptibility, instead of simply noting “some” or “negligible” as has been done in previous studies (e.g., Godt et al., 2012). The topographic data used, as well as the expanded inventory of landslide data, represent an order-of-magnitude improvement over existing susceptibility maps with coverage over most of the United States. However, the variety of landslide type and geologic conditions under which slopes may fail simply cannot be accounted for by topography alone. This is an area where more work needs to be done.

The new landslide map shows higher susceptibility areas across the most mountainous regions of the United States, including the Appalachian Mountains, Rocky Mountains, Pacific Coast Ranges, and Cascade Range. The map also highlights the extensive mountainous terrain throughout Alaska, as well as the higher susceptibility characterized across Puerto Rico (Hughes & Schulz, 2020) and the Hawaiian Islands (Baum, 2018).