VA Clean Energy Act Signed while CA Struggles with Power Shortage

On Monday, Governor Northam signed the Virginia Clean Economy Act which establishes a mandatory renewable portfolio standard to achieve 30% renewable energy by 2030, a mandatory energy efficiency resource standard, and creates the path to a carbon-free electric grid by 2045. This took place as California, a pioneer in large scale solar and wind farms is struggling to keep the power amid inadequate electricity supplies during their current heat wave.

Rolling blackouts across California should serve as a cautionary tale for Virginia as we look to move to a carbon free electric grid. Though solar and wind can generate power without contributing to climate change, they cannot generate power round the clock. Over the past weekend rolling blackouts have swept through California due to inadequate power availability. This shortfall is due in part to demand for power peaking in early evening just as the solar arrays began their evening declines.

Solar and wind supply about of a third of California’s power. Despite still having gas turbines that can supply power at peak demand, California was not able to meet the full demand even with conservation orders. In part this was because California relies heavily on its neighbors- it is a net importer of electricity and the nearby states were also experiencing higher than usual demand. Virginia, too, is a net electricity importer.

This should serve as a cautionary tale for Virginia who is planning to eliminate all fossil fuels from the power grid and use batteries to cover serge demand. The Virginia Clean Economy Act proposes 16,100 megawatts of solar and onshore wind, 5,200 megawatts of offshore wind, and 2,700 megawatts of energy storage and states that they are in the public interest. Large scale batteries have the potential to help during brief periods of power scarcity, but it remains to be seen if the Virginia electric grid can maintain reliability without also mainlining some gas fired power generation. My solar production falls significantly during rainy periods and ceases entirely in the snow.

At the signing Governor Northam said: “Together, these pieces of legislation put the Commonwealth in position to meet the urgency of the climate crisis, and lead the transition to renewable energy in a way that captures the economic, environmental, and health benefits for all Virginians.” Let’s hope so. I lived through the power shortages in California in 2001 (sitting around without heat or electricity in the winter) and do not wish to repeat the experience in my golden years.

The Virginia Clean Economy Act not only establishes energy efficiency standards and new investments in solar, onshore wind, offshore wind, and energy storage, but additional legislation advances shared solar and energy storage programs, and dramatically transforms the rooftop solar market, and increase the allowable size of residential net-metered projects to 25 kwatt. The Governor also signed legislation directing the State Corporation Commission to determine when electric utilities should retire coal-fired or natural gas-fired electric generation facilities, and how utility customers should pay for this transition. I look forward to reading their report.

Carbon Footprint-Restaurants vs Home Cooking

Though last week I said that Greenhouse Gas Emissions no longer matter, I only meant that no action that we as a nation could take would stop the further increase in carbon dioxide, CO2, concentrations from the emergence of China from a developing nation to developed nation and the ecological consequences from the increasing CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere. It’s done, whatever is going to happen will happen because the earth’s atmosphere is interconnected, and worldwide CO2 emissions will continue to grow. That fact does not absolve me from the responsibilities of sustainable living. Of the developed nations, the United States has the second highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions or CO2 equivalent (CO2e) generation rate. (It’s nice not to be the worst of the developed world.)  Policy mandates to have the United States adopt constraints on fossil fuel energy consumption will have little impact on the global level of CO2e emissions because the United States CO2e emissions are 16% of world CO2e emissions and falling. Our nation’s CO2e emissions are fairly stable at this time while our per capita CO2e emissions appear to be slowly decreasing. Still, as a nation, we should be more sustainable. Making sustainable choices is a moral choice.

 In the real world of finite resources, careful consideration must be given to how and when we expend our resources- money, manpower, water, fuel or land. The CO2e footprint has become shorthand for how sustainable you are. However, the method of calculating that footprint and assumptions made will determine if that measurement is an accurate reflection of how sustainable your life is. When seeking to determine the amount of CO2e emitted from an activity or a life choice, it is impossible to measure the emissions directly. Emissions are estimated from a known quantity such as fuel burned, or units of electricity consumed, but that can be misleading. While the combustion of fuel is a chemical reaction where the mass of CO2 emissions is directly related to the type and quantity of fuel burned, only heating your home is a simple calculation. For every kWh of energy supplied by gas the CO2 emissions are 0.206 kgCO2.

The energy consumed to create, manufacture, distribute and deliver any product is complicated and much of the work that has been done is based on averages, which can be misleading. Nonetheless, the information can be useful. I ran across a paper “The American Carbon Foodprint: Understanding

your food’s impact on climate change,” by Mathew Kling, and Ian Hough (2010). The paper was  sponsored by Brighter Planet, Inc., a company whose technology platform calculates the carbon, energy, and resource impact of a variety of real-life emission sources. Brighter Planet sells consulting, but gives away really interesting research including the Carbon Foodprint study.  According to the authors food represents 21% (5.46 metric tonnes CO2e emission) of the typical American’s 26 metric tonne total annual carbon footprint. The actual CO2e emissions associated with your food consumption is dependent on where, how much and what you eat, how the food is grown, transported, processed, prepared and what you do with the leftovers.

The transportation of the food from farm to store was a surprisingly small contributor to the total CO2e emissions embodied in the food. A larger source of CO2e emissions in food are from the delivery of inputs like, fertilizer, water, and animal feed. So that grass fed beef that is pasture raised would have a much smaller CO2e emissions than beef that is feed with remotely sourced grain. (In addition, pasture raised cows are less flatulent than grain fed cows.) Crops grown without irrigation, conservation agriculture and organic agriculture all have different ecological and CO2e emission footprints versus the “conventional agriculture” similar products. One farmer may be more sustainable than another for a variety of reasons. However, most of the food’s transportation related CO2e emissions are from travel to the grocery store and restaurants by the consumer. Personal food-related driving comprise 14% of the average family’s carbon footprint.

It is much more sustainable to eat at home.  The average American eats out at a fast food or full service restaurant about 4.5 times a week, or roughly 20% of the time. The Carbon Foodprint study tells us that restaurants and food service operations consume roughly the same amount of energy as home kitchens producing only 20% of the meals in America– and that's before you consider the carbon impact of traveling to the restaurant. A typical restaurant meal’s CO2e emissions if 3.67 times the CO2e emissions of a meal prepared and eaten at home. Cooking and eating at home is a simple way to reduce your carbon footprint. It is also healthier and saves money.

In addition with some planning and thoughtful actions you can significantly reduce the CO2 emissions associated with your kitchen. The authors tell us that kitchens consume 21% of total household energy and are one of the most energy-intensive rooms in the house. Over 35% of the kitchen energy use is for heating, cooling, and lighting the kitchen itself, with the remainder related to the cooking process and food storage. Refrigeration is the biggest energy hog in the kitchen. On average a refrigerator consumes 30% of all kitchen energy, and emits 650 Kg of CO2e. A modern Energy Star refrigerator performs considerably better than that. Cooking food consumes an average of 293 Kg of CO2e, 14% of the total energy used in a kitchen. Microwaves are the most energy-efficient followed by induction, and traditional burners. Ovens are the least efficient cooking method. Cleaning up and washing dishes uses 14% of kitchen energy. The most energy efficient method to wash dishes is to use a modern Energy Star dishwasher- running it when it is fully loaded.

Recycling, waste reduction and reuse all have an impact on CO2 emissions. Americans discard over 280 billion Kg of garbage each year (excluding recycling and composting) of that trash 29% is food related. The trash is collected and trucked to landfills and accounts for 143 Kg CO2e per person per year that is responsible for 28% of landfill gas emissions each year. In Prince William County about 36% of all trash is recycled and includes packaging and containers, but not food scraps. Knowing how to deliciously use up leftovers will also reduce your carbon footprint.  By simply cooking all your meals at home the average person can reduce their carbon footprint by 1.39 metric tonnes of CO2e a year. Other steps to reduce your carbon footprint further would be: eat more plants, buy unprocessed, whole foods, minimize car trips to the grocery store, use all your leftovers, recycle and compost, buy Energy Star appliances. All of these steps will reduce the per capita carbon emissions further, but will not stop the climate of the earth from changing.  Certainly, anthropogenic activity has been a significant contributor to the 150 parts per million (0.015%) increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the past 113 years. The exact relationship of greenhouse gasses to climate is not fully understood, but if all of the United States (or even mankind) were suddenly wiped off the face of the earth climate change would not stop. Nonetheless, dine at home.

Kling, M.M. and I.J. Hough (2010). “The American Carbon Foodprint: Understanding your food’s impact on climate change,” Brighter Planet, Inc. 

http://brighterplanet.com/research

Greenhouse Gas Emissions in U.S. No Longer Matter

On Tuesday, the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA released the second year of reported greenhouse gas emissions data from large sources, posting it on its website in case you want to view it, but the data is summarized above. The 2011 data was collected through the mandated Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Reporting Program, and includes information reported from facilities that emit large quantities of greenhouse gasses. Greenhouse gases are believed by the EPA to be the primary driver of climate change, and these large facilities account for about half of the greenhouse gas emissions in the nation. While the planet generates greenhouse gases, mankind has vastly increased the generation of greenhouse gases by drilling for and recovering coal, oil and gas from the earth then burning those fuels to generate electricity, power automobiles and manufacture and deliver all the products of our modern life.

The data that was reported to the EPA shows that power plants remain the largest stationary source of greenhouse gas emissions, with 2,221 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (mmtCO2e), roughly one-third of gross U.S. emissions. (The United States has significant woodlands that absorb carbon dioxide and act as a carbon dioxide sink so that net emissions for the U.S. are approximately 1,000 million metric tons of carbon dioxide less than CO2e generated.)  The transportation sector which consists of small non-stationary sources is the second largest generator of greenhouse gas emissions, but is not tracked by the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program.  Petroleum and natural gas systems were the third largest sector, with emissions of 225 mmtCO2e in 2011. This was the first year this group of generators were required to report. Refineries were the next largest emitting source, with 182 mmtCO2e, slight increase over 2010. The major uses of energy in the United States are heating of residential and commercial buildings (11%), industry (20%), transportation including cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships (27.4%), and electric power generation (40%). Overall, CO2 emissions in the United States in 2011 fell by 1.7% to an estimated 5,32o million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions net of the carbon sinks that are our vast forests and open lands.  U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide are less than 10% higher than they were in 1990 while the population has grown by 24% over the same period.

US Greenhouse Gas Emissions from EPA

To achieve this reduction the EPA has used regulations that will ensure that total CO2 emissions are reduced over time. In 2012 EPA proposed the first Clean Air Act standard for carbon dioxide. Under the new rule, new power plants will have to emit no more than 1,000 tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of energy produced. That standard effectively changes the fuel of choice for all future power capacity additions to natural gas, nuclear, or the renewable category (with government subsidies), and EPA has begun action to reduce CO2 emissions from existing plants.  In addition the EPA and the Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) new millage and emission standards for automobiles and light trucks for model year 2012 through 2025 requiring continued improvement of about a 5% per year in average fuel economy from 2016 when they are required to have at least a 35.5 mpg fleet average for vehicles sold in the U.S. and will have to boost car and light truck fuel economy to an average 56.2 miles per gallon by 2025 significantly reducing the use of fuel.   Passenger cars, light trucks and motorcycles represent 17% of the national greenhouse gas emissions. With the CO2 standard and fuel economy standards the U.S is on track to reduce their CO2 emission in the coming decades, but that will have little if any impact on global CO2 concentrations. Though we remain the nation with the highest CO2 emissions per citizen, we are no longer the nation with the highest total CO2 emissions.

According to the annual report ‘Trends in global CO2 emissions’, released  by the Joint Research Centre and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), global emissions of CO2 reached 34 billion metric tons in 2011. The top emitters of CO2 in 2011 were: China (29%), the United States (16%), the European Union (11%), India (6%), the Russian Federation (5%) and Japan (4%). China, the largest emitter of CO2 increased their emissions the most. China contributed almost three quarters of the global increase, with its emissions rising by 720 million metric tons, or 9.3% to 8,460 million metric tons of CO2, and is now driving global CO2 emissions bringing China within the range of 6 to 19 metric tons of CO2 per capita emissions of the industrialized countries.  It is estimate that China will emit around 10 billion metric tons of CO2 in 2013 entirely negating reductions from all other nations.  There is no interest in reducing CO2 emissions or even stopping emissions growth in China. They are not yet a rich nation and are currently experiencing the coldest winter in 28 years. Though Beijing is becoming aware of the impacts of particulate air pollution, they are far from being concerned about global CO2 emissions. China remains focused on food and growth. 

The climate of the earth is constantly changing on a geological time scale, but the geological record hints that sudden shifts can happen. The controversy over both the science and policy relating to climate change is far from over, but clearly the rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and oceans will have significant impact on the ecology of the planet and mankind. Policy mandates to have the United States adopt constraints on fossil fuel energy consumption will have little impact on the global level of CO2, and our CO2 emission and economy no longer appear to be in a growth phase.  However, the earth’s atmosphere is interconnected and worldwide CO2 emissions will continue to grow powered by China and India in the short run. We need now to appropriately respond to the changing planet and prepare to respond to those changes to ensure that mankind survives.

World CO2 Emissions Continue to Rise

The International Energy Agency, IEA, has released its preliminary 2011 estimates of world CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. World CO2 emissions rose by 1 billion metric tons, a 3.2 % increase over last year to reach 31.6 billion metric tons (34.83 billion tons). The IEA based in Paris was established in November 1974 in response to the global oil crisis created by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo. Its primary mandate was to promote energy security amongst its member countries. Over the years the mission has evolved to include holding global warming at 2°C by providing policy recommendations for ways to ensure reliable, clean energy for its 28 member countries (which includes the United States).

In 2011 the top four world generators of CO2 emission from fossil fuels were in descending order China, the United States, the European Union and India who edged out Russia to take the number four slot. China increased their emissions the most. China contributed almost three quarters of the global increase, with its emissions rising by 720 million metric tons, or 9.3% to 8.46 billion metric tons of CO2, primarily due to higher coal consumption. India’s emissions rose by 140 million metric tons or 8.7% to 1.75 billion metric tons. CO2 emissions in the United States in 2011 fell by 92 million metric tons of CO2, or 1.7% to an estimated 5.32 billion metric tons. This reduction was primarily due to EPA regulations and increased availability of natural gas from shale deposits the cause the switching from coal to natural gas for electric power generation and helped by a mild winter in most of the United States, which reduced the demand for space heating. U.S. emissions have now fallen by 430 million metric tons or 7.7% since 2006, the largest reduction of all countries or regions. Unfortunately, this decrease has been made practically meaningless by the unrelenting growth in China and India.

Other highlights from the report were the European Union increased their CO2 emissions from fossil fuel by 69 million metric tons to approximately 3.56 billion metric tons. Japan’s CO2 emissions increased by 28 million metric tons, or 2.4% to approximately 1.19 billion metric tons, as a result of a substantial increase in the use of fossil fuels in power generation post-Fukushima tsunami when the three of the six Fukushima Daiichi nuclear  reactors  in operation at the time suffered melt downs. Now Germany, Belgium, and Switzerland have developed plans to phase out their nuclear reactors in the next decade in response to the damage to the nuclear reactors that occurred in the Japanese tsunami. So, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion is likely to increase in those countries. Russia and Canada remained fairly stable from the previous year, though Russia reports fewer data inputs than most developed countries so estimates are not as easily made.

The IEA tracks not only energy data and carbon dioxide releases but also investment in carbon control technologies and progress along various strategies to limit global temperature rise by controlling CO2 emissions from fossil fuel. IEA also makes progress reports on converting to clean energy and implementing carbon dioxide controls worldwide geared to preventing global temperatures from increasing more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the so called 450 Scenario which limits global warming by limiting concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2. Unfortunately,  we’re pretty much out of time since the 450 Scenario calls for CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuel to peak at 32.6 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions annually just 1 billion metric tons above current levels and the amount the world emissions increased this past year.

The IEA still believes that it is possible to prevent the earth’s temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius if “timely and significant government policy action is taken, and a range of clean energy technologies are developed and deployed globally.” The government action required is spending more money, much more money. The money is to be spent for the development and implementation of clean technologies to reduce Energy related CO2 emissions by over 5 billion metric tons before 2020 and continue to fall thereafter to less than half of the 2009 level while world population continues to grow. The IEA estimates that achieving these carbon reductions would cost $5 trillion by 2020.  The world does not appear to have the financial capacity or will for these actions on top of all the other needs of nations.

The worldwide level of CO2 emissions is higher than the worst-case scenario outlined by climate experts just five years ago, but fortunately temperatures have not (yet) risen as projected by the climate models.  The relationship of climate change to worldwide CO2 levels may not be the one previously assumed as research and modeling of the climate at Oregon State University predict a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought. The earth is going to be their laboratory. In the meantime we really need to worry about access to clean water and safe human sanitation and animal waste disposal.