Cicadas

Cicadas, probably both Magicicada septendecim and Magicicada cassinii have arrived in southwestern Virginia. In Virginia there are eleven primary broods of the 17-year cicada and two primary broods of the 13-year cicada. Every year they will emerge somewhere in the state, but Brood X due in 2021 is one of the largest and impacts our area in Northern Virginia including Prince William, Loudoun, Fairfax, and Fauquier counties.

It is not until next spring that we will hear the “song” which is the mating call of the males. For most people, the droning song of the cicada is nothing more than a slight annoyance, which only appears ocassionally. To me the “song” sounds like wind on a cell phone connection, but you can listen to the actual chorus on the u-Tube video. Male cicadas sing quite loudly by vibrating membranes on the sides of their abdominal segment. Male songs and choruses are a courtship ritual to attract females for mating. If you hear the cicadas chorus in the spring report the finding to Magicicada.org. Most people are more familiar with the dogday cicada that is prevalent annually in mid summer. Their song is later in the summer and not as persistant.

The annual dogday cicada is a mottled, dark green color. The 17 year or 13 year periodical cicada is black, with red eyes and orange legs. “Adults have clear wings with distinctive orange veins. When viewed from the front the wings form an inverted "V" and meet at the top like a roof.”

Both the 17-and 13-year cicadas damage many ornamental and hardwood trees. Oaks are commonly attacked but the most seriously damaged are newly planted fruit and ornamental trees such as apple, dogwood, peach, hickory, cherry, and pear. Pines and other conifers are not commonly attacked. This fall will not be a good time to plant any of these trees in our region as they may be damaged next spring when Brood X emerges. 

Brood X due next in 2021

Cicadas do not pose a danger to these plants through feeding, but instead through their egg-laying habits. Cicada females select pencil-width branches or vines, then implant their eggs into them using a sharp egg laying tube called an ovipositor. The nymphs then hatch from the eggs and drop down to burrow into the soil where they begin harmlessly feeding on the plants’ roots. The egg implantation causes the branch or vine to split and wither, a phenomenon known as “flagging” where a group of leaves on an otherwise healthy part of the plant turn brown and die. For a small tree or young vine, too many flagging sections can stunt their growth or even kill them outright.

Damage from Cicidas 

Cicidas  Image from VA Tech

Earthquake Strikes Mexico

At 11:29 AM last Tuesday a strong earthquake struck the state of Oaxaca, Mexico. This quake was preceded by two milder earthquakes that stuck the area a 4.9 magnitude quake struck a 9:17 PM the evening before and a 4.3 magnitude quake struck at 5:07 AM. The big earthquake was followed by a series of aftershocks that measured at 4.6 magnitude earthquake at 12:31 PM and 5.0 magnitude two hours later, 4.6 magnitude a couple of hours after that. Tuesday night there was a 5.4 magnitude and 4.5 magnitude. Wednesday morning a 4.1 magnitude earthquake was recorded. Those are just the greater than 4 magnitude earthquakes that have been recorded an unknown number of unknown mild tremors have also occurred.

The severity of an earthquake is expressed in whole numbers and decimal fractions, and have evolved over time. The magnitude of an earthquake, usually expressed by the Richter Scale, is a measure of the amplitude of the seismic waves, but does not effectively describe the destructive power of large earthquakes. The moment magnitude of an earthquake is a measure of the amount of energy released - an amount that can be estimated from seismograph readings. The intensity, as expressed by the Modified Mercalli Scale, is a subjective measure that describes how strong a shock was felt at a particular location, which is why the USGS collects comments and location from people who felt the earthquake.

The Richter Scale, named after Dr. Charles F. Richter of the California Institute of Technology, is still the best known scale for measuring the magnitude of earthquakes. The scale is logarithmic so that a magnitude 7 earthquake is 10 times as large as a magnitude 6. Earthquakes with a Richter value of 6 or more are commonly considered major; great earthquakes have magnitude of 8 or more on the Richter scale. This earthquake falls in between major earthquake and great earthquake at 7.4 magnitude.

This is a very seismically active area. In 2017 an earthquake with a magnitude 8.2 struck the area. Historically, several significant earthquakes have occurred along the southern coast of Mexico. Located on top of three tectonic plates, Mexico is one of the world's most seismically active regions. Most of Mexico sits on the westward moving North American plate, but this area is also a subduction zone where two plates converge, and one plate is thrust beneath the other. This process results in earthquakes and volcanoes. The largest earthquakes on Earth occur in these areas.

The Pacific Ocean floor south of Mexico is being carried northeastward by the underlying Cocos plate at a geologically rapid pace of about 50 millimetres a year. Because oceanic crust is relatively dense, when the Pacific Ocean floor encounters the lighter continental crust of the Mexican landmass, the ocean floor is subducted beneath the North American plate creating the deep Middle American trench along Mexico's southern coast.

EPA Decides Not to Regulate Perchlorate Under SDWA

Last Thursday the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a final decision not to regulate perchlorate under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA).

Perchlorate is commonly used in solid rocket propellants, munitions, fireworks, airbag initiators for vehicles, matches, and signal flares. Perchlorate may occur naturally, particularly in arid regions such as the southwestern U.S. and can be found as a byproduct in hypochlorite solutions used for treating drinking water and nitrate salts used to produce fertilizers, explosives, and other products.

At certain levels, perchlorate can prevent the thyroid gland from getting enough iodine, which can affect thyroid hormone production. For pregnant women with low iodine levels, sufficient changes in thyroid hormone levels may cause changes in the child’s brain development. For infants, changes to thyroid hormone function can also impact brain development.

In the Federal Register February 2011 it stated: “EPA has determined that perchlorate meets SDWA's criteria for regulating a contaminant—that is, perchlorate may have an adverse effect on the health of persons; perchlorate is known to occur or there is a substantial likelihood that perchlorate will occur in public water systems with a frequency and at levels of public health concern; and in the sole judgment of the Administrator, regulation of perchlorate in drinking water systems presents a meaningful opportunity for health risk reduction for persons served by public water systems. Therefore, EPA will initiate the process of proposing a national primary drinking water regulation (NPDWR) for perchlorate.”

However, in June 2019 EPA presented an updated occurrence analysis collected using the Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule (UCMR) to collect data that demonstrated that the levels of perchlorate in drinking water and sources of drinking water have decreased since first group of data was collected for the 2011 determination.

The EPA now states that there has been a decrease in perchlorate levels which include due to:

1. The promulgation of a drinking water regulations for perchlorate in California and Massachusetts; and
2. The ongoing remediation efforts in the state of Nevada to address perchlorate contamination in groundwater adjacent to the lower Colorado River upstream of Lake Mead.

The above actions have effectively reduced the occurrence of perchlorate in public water supplies; and now perchlorate doesn’t appear in enough public water systems, or at high enough levels, to cause concern for the general population.

EPA had been considering regulating perchlorate at 56 part per billion (ppb). For comparison, Massachusetts' current regulatory standard is 2 ppb, while California is considering lowering its current regulatory standard of 6 ppb to 1 ppb. EPA decided that it should not regulate perchlorate at all under the SDWA, given that it would result in monitoring at 60,000 public water systems and only a handful had been impacted. According to the most recent monitoring data if EPA had regulated perchlorate at a maximum contaminant level of 56 ppb as originally proposed, only two systems would exceed the regulatory threshold. The ongoing analysis costs to all public water supply systems could not be justified.

In other words the steps that EPA, states and public water systems have taken in the past decade had successfully reduced the occurrence of perchlorate to the impacted drinking water companies that the agency determined perchlorate does not meet the criteria for regulation as a drinking water contaminant under the SDWA. Therefore, the agency withdrew the 2011 regulatory determination and is making a final determination to not issue a national regulation for perchlorate at this time.

Stand by for legal challenges from environmental groups especially the Natural Resources Defense Council. There is great concern about perchlorate, it has known significant health impacts, but does not appear to be widespread in drinking water supplies. It does leave you feeling uneasy, though.

The Safe Drinking Water Act, (SDWA), is the Federal law that protects the public from drinking water contaminants that pose a known health concern. Only 91 contaminants are regulated by the SDWA, yet according to the EPA, more than 80,000 chemicals are used within the United States. Not every drinking water contaminant with health consequence gets regulated because they may not be widely present in source waters. And not every regulated contaminant has health consequence. Some contaminants are regulated to control taste and odor. Though the SDWA was adopted in 1974, it has had significant amendments in 1986 and 1996 that added explicit health goals, risk management approaches and methods of gathering data to allow the SDWA to continue to evolve and ensure the public water supply systems in the United States remains among the safest in the world.

The 1996 amendments to the SDWA created the Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule, UCMR. This is the tool the EPA uses to determine if there are contaminants likely to pose a risk to the health of the nation. A contaminant is identified as being of a possible health concern in drinking water, by states, water systems, scientists or other sources. Health information is collected and if deemed appropriate, occurrence and exposure information are collected using the UCMR data collection program for preliminary risk assessment then a determination is then made on whether there exists an opportunity to reduce public health risks by regulation and the contaminant is then added to the Drinking Water Contaminant Candidate List. The costs of the data collection are born by water supply companies that serve more than 10,000 people. The 1996 Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) amendments require that once every five years, EPA issue a new list of no more than 30 unregulated contaminants to be monitored by public water systems. The national sampling program provides the EPA with a scientifically valid database on the occurrence of these emerging contaminants in drinking water supplies.

The emerging contaminants lack human health standards so the first step is to identify what substances are present at what levels in the environment using the UCMR list to identify substances with widespread exposure. The next step would be to identify the acceptable human exposure level and need for regulation based on presence in the environment. Much of the environmental work in the past has been done on what are called the persistent priority pollutants, such as trace metals, pesticides, PCBs and PAHs, substances that persist in the environment. Many of the emerging contaminants are environmentally non-persistent, but still may have health impacts. A non-persistent chemical breaks down and these breakdown products may be widely present in the environment.

UCMR 4 is currently underway. Monitoring which began in 2018 will continue to the end of the year and includes monitoring for a total of 30 chemical contaminants: 10 cyanotoxins (nine cyanotoxins and one cyanotoxin group) and 20 additional contaminants (two metals, eight pesticides plus one pesticide manufacturing byproduct, three brominated haloacetic acid [HAA] disinfection byproducts groups, three alcohols, and three semivolatile organic chemicals [SVOCs]).

Supreme Court allows Atlantic Coast Pipeline to cross Appalachian Trail

Atlantic Coast Pipeline, LLC is a partnership between Dominion Energy and Duke Energy. They are trying to build a 604-mile natural gas pipeline from West Virginia to North Carolina along a route that crossed 16 miles of land within the George Washington National Forest. Atlantic Coast Pipeline secured a special use permit from the United States Forest Service in 2017, obtaining a right-of-way for a 0.1-mile segment of pipe approximately 600 feet below the Appalachian National Scenic Trail (Appalachian Trail or Trail), where it also crosses the National Forest.

In December 2018, the Fourth Circuit vacated the permit that the U.S. Forest Service had issued. In the opinion Judge Thacker stated that the judges concluded that the Forest Service’s decisions violated the National Forest Management Act and National Environment Policy Act, and that the Forest Service lacked statutory authority pursuant to the Mineral Leasing Act to grant a pipeline right of way across the Appalachian National Scenic Trail.

Now the Supreme Court in a 7-2 opinion by Justice Clarence Thomas on Monday, overturned that ruling. The Supreme court found that the Forest Service had the authority to issue the special use permit. The Court found that the Forest Service, with authority granted by the Secretary of Agriculture, has jurisdiction over the National Forest System, including the George Washington National Forest. The National Trails System Act (Trails Act) establishes national scenic and national historic trails, including the Appalachian Trail. The Trails Act also empowers the Secretary of the Interior to establish the Trail’s location and width by entering into “rights-of-way” agreements with other federal agencies, States, local governments, and private landowners.

The Supreme Court found that a right-of-way is a type of easement. And easements grant only non-possessory rights of use limited to the purposes specified in the easement agreement: They are not land; they merely burden land that continues to be owned by another. Thus, the Forest Service maintained ownership of the land and could grant a right of way easement to the pipeline.

If it goes forward the Atlantic Coast Pipeline will originate in West Virginia, travel through Virginia with a lateral extending to Chesapeake, VA, and then continue south into eastern North Carolina, ending in Robeson County. Two additional, shorter laterals will connect to two Dominion Energy electric generating facilities in Brunswick and Greensville Counties. The Atlantic Coast Pipeline will provide a consistent supply of natural gas to the power plants in the region in addition bring natural gas to the coast for export.

The abundance of shale natural gas coming from the Marcellus is expected to keep prices for natural gas relatively low into the foreseeable future and has created a glut in natural gas that can now be exported. The gas fired generation can serve as swing power, rather than base supply for Virginia during the transition away from fossil fuels. Virginia is now subject to the Virginia Clean Economy Act which was signed by Governor Northam on April 12, 2020 requires Dominion Energy Virginia to be 100% carbon-free by 2045 and Appalachian Power to be 100% carbon-free by 2050. It requires nearly all coal-fired plants to close by the end of 2024.

The Virginia Clean Economy Act also establishes a carbon dioxide cap-and-trade program to reduce emissions from power plants, in compliance with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). The Department of Environmental Quality will establish and operate an auction program to sell allowances into a market-based trading program. Cap-and-trade system can be very complex to operate. Cap-and-trade also requires the establishment of an emissions trading market that has not always proven efficient in practice and they can become expensive to operate and monitor. I have long supported a carbon tax instead.

World Energy Use 2018

Energy is the basis of the world economy. In 2018 primary energy consumption grew at a rate of 2.9%, almost double its 10-year average of 1.5% per year. Natural gas, accounted for over 40% of the growth in primary energy. The use of fossil fuels to produce energy releases greenhouse gases which grew by 2.0%, the fastest growth for seven years. Happily, renewable power led by wind and solar power, continued to grow far more rapidly than any other form of energy at 14.5%.

from BP

So let’s take a look at energy consumed world wide during 2018 (the most recent data analyzed). According to data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy (published annually) and the U.S. Energy Information Agency world consumption of fuel for energy production (as measured in millions of tonnes of oil equivalents) has increased by about 60% over the last 25 years. Over that time the mix of fuels has changed. Oil remains the most used fuel in the energy mix. Coal is still the second largest fuel despite continuing to lose share in 2018 down to 27% of all fuels. Natural gas increased its share to 24%. The contribution of hydro and nuclear power remained relatively flat in 2018 at 7% and 4%, respectively. Strong growth pushed up solar and wind share to 4% of the energy produced.

from BP showing fuel consumption by region 

Nonetheless, the world is on an unsustainable path: the longer carbon emissions continue to rise, the harder and more costly will be the eventual adjustment to net-zero carbon emissions. Decarbonizing the power sector while also meeting the rapidly expanding demand for power, particularly in the developing world, is perhaps the single most important challenge facing the global energy system over the next 20 years.

Despite the continuing rapid growth in renewable energy last year, it provided only a third of the required increase in power generation, with coal providing a broadly similar contribution. The increasing use of coal within the power sector in rapidly growing economies is estimated to have more than accounted for the entire growth of global coal consumption last year. Take a look at what the energy consumption per capita variation is from highest to lowest is. Remember this is total energy consumed and is not necessarily indicative of CO2 equivalents because it includes various types of energy, coal, natural gas (which has half the CO2 emissions of coal), petroleum, renewable energy etc. The total energy consumed and the mix of energy types together determine the CO2 equivalents emitted.

"Driven by higher energy demand in 2018, global energy-related CO2 emissions rose 1.7% to a historic high of 33.1 Gt CO2. While emissions from all fossil fuels increased, the power sector accounted for nearly two-thirds of emissions growth. Coal use in power alone surpassed 10 Gt CO2, mostly in Asia." In 2018 China emitted 9.5 Gt of CO2 or 29% of all emissions, the United States emitted 5.1 Gt of CO2 or 15% of all emissions and India emitted 2.2 Gt of CO2 or 7% of all emissions. CO2 in the atmosphere continues to climb. 

All of Virginia is now in Phase Two

On Friday, Governor Ralph Northam allowed Northern Virginia and Richmond join the rest of Virginia in the second phase of the “Forward Virginia” plan, easing public health restrictions.

Under Phase Two, the Commonwealth will maintain a Safer at Home strategy with continued recommendations for social distancing, teleworking, and requiring people to wear face coverings in indoor public settings. The maximum number of individuals permitted in a social gathering is now 50 people. All businesses should still adhere to physical distancing guidelines, frequently clean and sanitize high contact surfaces, and continue enhanced workplace safety measures.

Under Phase Two restaurant, bars, breweries and wineries may offer indoor dining/ drinking at 50% of occupancy, fitness centers may open indoor areas at 30% occupancy, and certain recreation and entertainment venues without shared equipment may open with restrictions. These venues include museums, zoos, aquariums, botanical gardens, and outdoor concert, sporting, and performing arts venues. Swimming pools may also expand operations to both indoor and outdoor exercise, diving, and swim instruction.

U.S.Energy Use 2019

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the statistics branch of the Department of Energy, the US used 100.2 quadrillion Btu. last year. Energy sources are measured in different physical units depending on the type of energy source: barrels of oil, cubic feet of natural gas, tons of coal, kilowatt hours of electricity. In the United States, British thermal units (Btu), a measure of heat energy, is a commonly used unit for comparing different types of energy.

In 2019, U.S. primary energy use equaled 100.2 quadrillion (=E15, or one thousand trillion) Btu. If it helps to visualize this any better, that is equivalent to about 2,500 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) the energy measurement standard used by the International Energy Agency, IEA, the keeper of world statistics. In a world with 7.8 billion people the United States is estimated to have 328 million people, about 4% of the world’s population, 7% of the land mass and use about 16% of the energy (according to 2018 data from BP).

In the United States the US Energy Information Administration collects and reports the energy statistics in quadrillion BTUs and has recently reported the summary data for 2019. These statistics paint a picture of who we are today. The major energy sources in the United States are petroleum-gas and oil (37%), natural gas (32%), coal (11%), nuclear (8%), and renewable energy primarily biomass and hydro power generation (11%). For the first time since 1957 the United States produced more energy we consume. The United States produced 101.0 quadrillion BTUs of energy and consumed 100.2 quadrillion BTUs. U.S. energy production grew 5.7% in 2019 and energy consumption decreased by 0.9% in 2019.

The major users are heating and electric power for residential (16%) and commercial buildings (12%), industry (35%), transportation including cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships (37%). Electric power generation is an intermediate use that ultimately serves other sectors.

from EIA

The slightly complicated chart above shows the types of fuel and the sector that consumes it. Looking at petroleum, you can see that it supplies almost 37% of our energy needs. Transportation, cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships, uses 70% of petroleum and that petroleum provides 91% of the total energy used in transportation. Industry uses 24% of the total petroleum consumed by the United States to supply 34% of the energy used by industry. Studying all the details of the chart tells you a lot about the United States in 2019. It will also allow you to understand the impact that policies, regulation and scientific advances might have on the country.

Coal use has trended down since its peak of 24.0 quadrillion BTUs in 1998, mainly as a result of declining use of coal for U.S. electricity generation. In 2019, coal production was 14.3 quadrillion BTUs. Coal consumption was 11.3 quadrillion BTUs in 2019 in the United States mostly to generate electricity. The difference between production and consumption was exported. Regulations like the EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule affecting electricity generation have reduced the use of coal in the United States over the last 10 years from 21% of energy down to 11% of energy used.

Nuclear energy is entirely used in one sector, electrical generation. Even though there were fewer operating nuclear reactors in 2019 than in 2000, the amount of nuclear energy produced in 2019 was the highest on record at 8.46 quadrillion BTUs, mainly because of a combination of increased capacity from power plant upgrades and shorter refueling and maintenance cycles.

Natural gas production reached a record high of 34.9 quadrillion BTUs in 2019. Natural gas is the source of 32% of the energy consumed in the United States and in 2019 was used almost equally for industry, electrical generations and residential and commercial heating. The natural gas consumed in the United States is produced in the United States. U.S. natural gas production and consumption were nearly in balance through 1986. From 1986 to 2006 consumption of natural gas outpaced production, and imports rose. Then in 2006 U.S. production of natural gas began to increase as a result of the development of more efficient and cost effective hydraulic fracturing techniques. U.S. natural gas production has exceeded U.S. natural gas consumption since 2017. Going forward regulations and planning will impact the cost, amount and mix of energy consumed by the nation.