Getting Ready for Glasgow

As we approach the beginning of the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) meeting in Glasgow, Scotland on October 31st, many countries have put forth new commitments for reducing carbon emissions. As delineated in the April 22, 2021 White House press statement, the United States has set a goal to reach 100 % carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035 and net zero emissions throughout the economy by 2050. Under the framework of the Paris accord, more than 50 countries, as well as the entire European Union, have pledged to meet net zero emissions targets.

Under the Paris Agreement, every country agreed to work together to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees and aim for 1.5 degrees, to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate and to make money available to deliver on these aims to countries not able to afford the costs of adapting to a changing climate. The parties to the agreement committed to create national plans setting out how much they would reduce their emissions called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). Furthermore, they agreed that every five years they would come back with an updated plan that would reflect their highest possible ambition at that time.

The U.S. rejoined the Paris Agreement by executive order when President Biden took office and pledged for the United States to reach net zero emissions economy-wide by no later than 2050.  The President also pledged an interim goal of a 50-52% reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution by 2030. This pledge was to increase the 2015 pledge of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 26 to 28 % below 2005 levels by 2025. It was estimated by the Rhodium Group analysis that the United States is actuallyon track to cut emissions 12 to 20% below the 2005 baseline by 2025, not thehigher aspirational goal.

The  50% to 52% new target is ambitious and would require a carbon-slashing overhaul of the U.S. economy.  President Biden charged Gina McCarthy with drawing up the details of the increased American NDC commitment under the Paris Agreement. Gina McCarthy, the Whitehouse National Climate Advisor and U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his State Department staff have been working on this product with groups of consultants. I look forward to seeing the carbon reductions they have identified.

According to the IEA (the International Energy Agency) World Energy Outlook 2021 prepared for the COP-26 meeting and designed to assist decision makers at COP-26.  “The successful pursuit of all announced pledges means that global energy-related CO2 emissions fall by 40% over the period to 2050. All sectors see a decline, with the electricity sector delivering by far the largest. The global average temperature rise in 2100 is held to around 2.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, although this scenario does not hit net zero emissions, so the temperature trend has still not stabilized.”

IEA (2021), World Energy Outlook 2021, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021

The achievement by a party of its NDC is not a legally binding obligation, nor is a country bound to any particular policies to achieve its target. It can, at any time, revise those targets and policies without legal ramifications. However, there does not appear to be a clear path for the United States to achieve the White House goals. The reconciliation bill stuck in congress is reported to contain large but unknow number of climate and energy provisions including: clean energy and electric vehicle tax credit expansions, a methane fee, funding for rural electric cooperatives, money for agriculture and forestry carbon capture programs, and the proposed Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP). In the last few days a carbon tax has been proposed. However, the CEPP and carbon tax have both been removed from the negotiation process.

The package of climate policies Democrats are considering as part of their $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill  could overhaul energy and contribute to meeting President Biden’s Paris Agreement emissions-cutting pledge, though not meet it. The Senate chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has voiced opposition to both the CEPP and a carbon tax as well as the reconciliation bill’s $3.5 trillion price tag. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) has promised a vote by October 31, 2021 in time for the opening of COP-26. A smaller deal is being negotiated.