CO2 Emissions Increased in 2021

On January 11th 2022 the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Rhodium Group released their updates and estimate for year ending December 31, 2021 performance of the economy and CO2 emissions for the year. The EIA forecast that; “Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose by 6.2% in 2021 relative to 2020…” Though Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix this was during a mild winter while the U.S. real GDP grew by 5.7% in 2021, the extent of the rebound in CO2 was more than hoped. 

If you recall the U.S. GDP fell 7.2% during the first year of the pandemic when states instituted lockdowns while CO2 emission fell even more. During 2020, as the country responded to the COVID-19 pandemic shutting down much of the economy for extended periods of time, CO2 emissions from energy consumption in the United States fell to the lowest level since 1983. The 4.6 billion metric tons of CO2 emitted in 2020 was 11% lower than 2019 levels. 

Although we will need to wait for final economic growth estimates and carbon dioxide equivalent emissions numbers, greenhouse gas emissions (or CO2 equivalent emissions) appear to have rebounded significantly despite the Delta and Omicron surges in the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, GDP bounced back 5.7%. Overall, the net CO2 equivalent emissions for the united states grew 6.2% with the transportation and electric power sectors CO2 equivalent emissions growing 10% and 6.6%, respectively from 2020 levels.

from EIA

The 10% increase in CO2 emissions from the transportation sector, reflect the high demand for  consumer goods transported to a large extent by truck and a modest recovery of passenger travel. The transportation sector that normally accounts for 31% of net US CO2 emissions had fallen over 15% (283 million metric tons of CO2e) below 2019 levels during 2020.

from the Rhodium Group 

In the electric power generation sector CO2 equivalent emissions grew 6% above 2020 levels to 95 million metric tons CO2 equivalents. Electricity accounts for 28% of net CO2 equivalent emissions. Despite the bounce back from 2020, CO2 emissions for the electric sector remained 4% lower than 2019 levels.

The increase in electric power generation sector CO2 emissions was only partially caused by increased generation of electric power.  Overall, electric power demand in 2021 was up 3% from 2020, the more robust growth in power sector CO2 emissions  was due in part to an increase in the use of coal to generate power in 2021. This was the first time in seven years that coal use had increased. Coal’s rebound was driven largely by a run-up in natural gas prices, which more than doubled since 2020. The demand curve for natural gas is relatively inelastic. In our plans for decarbonizing society have gotten ahead of reality. We have reduced supply of natural gas faster than the demand for natural gas. 

In their January 2021 report the Rhodium Group says that “Industry, which saw the most modest drop in CO2 emissions in 2020 at 6.2%, rebounded 3.6%in 2021—making up just over half the difference from 2019 levels. Buildings saw the smallest rise in CO2 emissions in 2021, growing only 1.9% from 2020,returning only a quarter of the drop in emissions from 2020.” For this one it is clear appears that there are still a lot of empty commercial buildings waiting for us to return. After our Omicron winter I am looking forward to (once again) returning to live prayer services and getting back out in the world.