Atlantic Hurricane Season Coming to Life

In May when NOAA made their hurricane season forecast, they predicted a very busy hurricane season with 18 to 35 named storms. Pointing out that atmospheric and oceanic conditions have set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season. Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

from NOAA

“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. Hurricane activity slowed after that initial burst.

In the Atlantic basin, a typical season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes. In their mid-season update last month NOAA reported that Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90% probability of this result. 2024 has only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season.

In their routine mid-season hurricane outlook update, forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated the number of expected named storms to 17-24 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 8-13 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 4-7 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This was confirmed by NOAA at a time when there had been only 4 named storms.

A transition to La Niña and high ocean temperatures are the usual conditions that create a busy storm season. Although La Niña was developing, it was slower than expected. Now, NOAA reports that the progression towards La Niña is picking up pace, creating the right conditions for storm formation.

According to NOAA: “Scientists say that while the historical record shows an increase in the number of Atlantic hurricanes since the early 1900s, this record does not reflect how much easier it has become to identify hurricanes since we began using satellites. Once this is factored in, scientists say there has been no significant overall increase in Atlantic hurricanes since the late 1800s.”

“On a shorter time frame, however, the numbers of Atlantic hurricanes have increased… as the tropical North Atlantic warmed and atmospheric conditions became conducive to increased hurricane activity, similar to what occurred during the mid-20th century… One influence is a variation in North Atlantic Ocean temperatures called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which has cool and warm phases historically lasting 25-40 years each. During its warm phase, North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are unusually warm compared to the tropical average and the atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic are conducive to hurricane activity.”

Meanwhile, ocean waters, particularly around the coast, remain extremely warm. That lays the groundwork for storms to rapidly intensify once they do develop. The Atlantic hurricane season usually reaches its peak around 10 September, and activity has picked up in the last week with the formation of storms Ernesto, Francine and Gordon.

A low-pressure system, not even classified as a tropical storm, dumped over a foot of water on North Carolina in less than 6 hours. It is too early to declare the hurricane season an inactive one. It may yet come to life or at least bring enough water to the Potomac Watershed to pull us out of the drought we’ve fallen into. Let’s hope for some rain here. Though, mindful of North Carolina I shall be careful what I wish for.