The End of Coal May Not Be the Time of Methane

On Wednesday, Gina McCarthy, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator, testified before the House Committee on Energy and Commerce’s Subcommittee on Energy and Power. Ms. McCarthy spoke about the EPA’s plans for the United States within the framework of the directions given to federal agencies last June saying: “The President’s Climate Action Plan directs federal agencies to address climate change using existing executive authorities. The Plan has three key pillars: cutting carbon pollution in America; preparing the country for the impacts of climate change; and leading international efforts to combat global climate change.”

The first steps of the President’s and EPA’s Climate program addressed motor vehicles, which emit nearly a third of U.S. carbon pollution. The EPA and the Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued new millage and emission standards for automobiles and light trucks for model year 2012 through 2016 that require vehicles to meet an estimated combined average emissions level of 250 grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) per mile in model year 2016, equivalent to 35.5 miles per gallon (mpg) if the automotive industry were to meet this CO2 level entirely through fuel economy improvements. A second set of standards requires continued improvement in gas mileage of about a 5% per year in average fuel economy from 2016 – 2025 that will result in car and light truck fuel economy to an average 56.2 miles per gallon by 2025.

After addressing automobiles, the President asked EPA to develop plans to reduce carbon pollution from future and existing power plants, which are responsible for about 40 % of America’s carbon dioxide emissions. This month EPA is expected to release the revised Carbon Pollution Standard for New Power Plants that had previously been announced 2012 and limits the amount of CO2 that can be produced for each megawatt of electricity produced. Under the revised rule, it is expected that new power plants will have to emit no more than 1,100 tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of energy produced. . That standard will effectively change the fuel of choice for all future power capacity additions to natural gas, nuclear, or the renewable category (with government subsidies). All existing plants and currently permitted and built in the next 12 months will be grandfathered and exempt from this new rule for a period of time. Reductions in CO2 generation from power plants will not improve human health, but the official “social costs” of carbon dioxide used by the EPA to $65 per ton.

EPA has also issued other regulations targeted at coal fired power plants, EPA’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, CSAPR, Mercury and Air Toxic's Standard, MATS and the lowering of the primary annual 2.5 micron particulate standard (PM 2.5) to 12. CSAPR which requires reductions of sulfur-dioxide and nitrogen-oxide emissions in coal fired plants was made final in July but at the end of last year, the U.S. Court of Appeals District of Columbia Circuit granted a stay to the implementation of the CSAPR pending resolution of the legal challenges. MATS regulates mercury, arsenic, acid gas, nickel, selenium, and cyanide and was finalized on December 21. 2011. All of these regulations are anticipated to have direct human health benefits in addition to reducing the ability of coal fired power plants to operate. There will be a reduction in the number of coal fired power plants and no new coal plants will be built. The 92% of the market for coal is domestic power plants. That market will shrink and wither and the age of coal will end.

The President’s Plan also calls for the development of a comprehensive, interagency strategy to address emissions of methane – a powerful greenhouse gas that also contributes to ozone pollution. So it remains unclear if regulations aimed at methane will reduce the feasibility of using our abundant natural gas resources as the primary fuel in power generation and for heating of commercial and residential buildings.

Even as EPA works to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the United States, they are incorporating research on climate impacts into the implementation of their regulatory programs. According to Ms. McCarthy, EPA is working to build our national resilience to Climate Change, including developing the National Drought Resilience Partnership, ensuring the security of our freshwater supplies, protecting our water utilities, and protecting and restoring our forests in the fact of a changing climate. In addition, EPA will continue to engage in discussions with other nations to develop strategies for reducing carbon pollution through an array of activities.” These include public-private partnership efforts to address emissions of methane and other short-lived climate pollutants under the Climate and Clean Air Coalition and the Global Methane Initiative, as well as bilateral cooperation with major economies.”

2011 U.S. Electrical Power Generation by Fuel

Last week when the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA released the second year of reported greenhouse gas emissions data from large sources they stated in their press release that “Power plants remain the largest stationary source of GHG emissions, with 2,221 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (mmtCO2e), roughly one-third of total U.S. emissions. In 2011 emissions from this source were approximately 4.6 % below 2010 emissions, reflecting an ongoing increase in power generation from natural gas and renewable sources.”

 Many news sources published the press release verbatim. If the increase in renewables was due to the recent surge in construction of wind and solar power generation installations this could be just the beginning in the shrinking of the CO2e footprint of the U.S. electrical grid. A fuel change from coal to natural gas would also significantly reduce the CO2e footprint of electrical power.  I decide to take a hard look at the Electrical Generation Data available from theU.S. Energy Information Administration. The major uses of energy in the United States are heating of residential and commercial buildings (11%), industry (20%), transportation including cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships (27.4%), and electric power generation (40%). Clearly, changes in the makeup of the generating sectors would have a profound effect on the CO2e generation of the nation.

From the U.S. EIA Data

 Overall from 2010 to 2011 electrical power generated in the U.S. fell fractionally less than half a percentage point- 19.40 billion Kilowatt hours to 4,105.7 billion Kilowatt hours of power generated in 2011. Power generated from coal fell 113 billion Kilowatt hours to 1,743.3 billion Kilowatt hours. Power generated from natural gas rose 28.9 billion Kilowatt hours to 1016.6 billion Kilowatt hours. Nuclear power generation fell 16.8 billion Kilowatt hours to 790 billion Kilowatt hours. Hydroelectric power generation rose 64.9 billion Kilowatt hours. Wind generation rose 25 billion Kilowatt hours and solar generation rose 0.6 billion Kilowatt hours.

The big reduction in greenhouse gas emissions appears to be from the overall reduction in fossil fuel based power generation of 93.4 billion Kilowatt hours which also included a reduction in coal generation and an increase in natural gas generation that generates only 56% of the CO2e per Kilowatt hour of power as coal and the significant increase in hydroelectric power. Power generated from renewable sources increased 92.7 billion Kilowatt hours in 2011 over 2010 the largest portion of which is attributed to an increase in hydroelectric power generation.

Since it has been two generations since the U.S. has built large damns, it seems most likely that the increase in hydroelectric generation was due to the heavy rains in that year increasing hydroelectric generation. Unfortunately in the drought year of 2012 the amount of power generated by hydroelectric will fall and fossil fuel generation will have to make up the difference. There has been a permanent  increase in wind power generation capacity as newly built wind farms have been tied into the power grid. This is likely to continue to increase in the short run as long as building the wind farms are subsidized by the government and the expense of connecting the wind generation to the power grid is carried by the rate payers. 

  

The drop in fossil fuel generation from 2010 to 2011 is almost exactly equal to the increase in renewable power generation- primarily hydroelectric and wind. The U.S. use of electricity is fairly stable at this time. The overall reduction in fossil fuel generation accounts for half the reduction in CO2e the other half of the reduction of CO2e appears to be coming from the migration to natural gas.  A slight reduction in overall generation would account for the difference. While this is exciting news, I was surprised how big hydroelectric generation was overall. Also, we have not built any damns in over two generations so that the hydroelectric capacity is very dependent on how wet a year it is. In the past40 years hydroelectric power generation has fluctuated from a high of around 325-350 billion Kilowatt hours a year during the wet years of the mid 1980’s and 1990’s to the lows of 220-250 billion Kilowatt hours during the early 2000’s. Since, 2012 was a drought year, the CO2e of electrical generation in the U.S. will increase despite the growing importance of wind power generation from 1.34% of power generated in 2008 to 2.92% of power generated in 2011. 

Hydroelectric Generation vs total Electrical Generation 1949-2011

Carbon Capture- Will It Save Us?

Last week a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington ruled that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, had “substantial record evidence” that greenhouse gases probably caused the climate to warm over the past several decades, the EPA had concluded that greenhouse gases are pollutants that endanger human health in 2009.  Opponents to that determination had essentially asked the Court to re-weigh the scientific evidence before EPA and reach their own conclusion. However, the three judge panel wrote in the opinion for the case that. “(t)his is not our role.”

 Back in  December 2009,  the EPA officially found that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations the agency,  and started on the path to regulate carbon dioxide, CO2, after the  "American Clean Energy and Security Act”, also known as the Waxman-Markley energy bill was defeated in the Senate. After collecting CO2 emission data from industry the EPA “found” in 2012 that the largest carbon dioxide generators are the largest stationary combustion sources. It was no surprise that the largest (coal) electrical generation and industrial plants in the nation- big furnaces generate more CO2. For the past decade electrical generation has accounted for approximately 40% of the carbon dioxide emissions in the United States and worldwide. At the end of March 2012, the EPA proposed the first Clean Air Act standard for CO2 rule targeted at power plants.  The agency plans to phase in industrial facilities covered by the carbon rules through 2016. Under the new rule, new power plants will have to emit no more than 1,000 tons of CO2 per megawatt-hour of energy produced. That standard effectively changes the fuel of choice for all future power capacity additions to natural gas, nuclear, or the renewable category (with government subsidies). All existing plants and currently permitted and built in the next 12 months will be grandfathered and exempt from this new rule for now.

Coal electrical generation plants currently produce about 1,800 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of electricity. EPA says the CO2 rule that requires new plants to produce no more than 1,000 pounds of CO2 per megawatt-hour as creating “a path forward for new technologies to be deployed at future facilities that will allow companies to burn coal, while emitting less carbon pollution.” The EPA in their new regulations and Department of Energy, DOE, in their research grants are pushing forward on the development of Carbon Capture. In June the International Energy Agency, IEA, released its preliminary 2011 estimates of world CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. World CO2 emissions rose by 1 billion metric tons, a 3.2 % increase over last year to reach 31.6 billion metric tons. The worldwide level of CO2 is now higher than the worst-case scenario outlined by climate experts just five years ago and within 1 billion metric tons of the IEA point of no return. (That is the point where mankind cannot hold global warming at 2 degrees Celsius.)

 

 In 2011 the top four world generators of CO2 emission from fossil fuels were (from highest to lowest) China, the United States, the European Union and India who edged out Russia to take the number four slot. China increased emissions contributed almost three quarters of the global increase, with its emissions rising by 720 million metric tons, or 9.3% to 8.46 billion metric tons of CO2, primarily due to higher coal consumption. India’s emissions rose by 140 million metric tons or 8.7% to 1.75 billion metric tons. Since 2000, China has more than tripled its installed capacity of coal power plants, while India’s capacity has increased by 50%. Neither country has used the most efficient designs and technologies available for those plants and those plants will continue to operate 24/7 for decades to come.

CO2 emissions in the United States, in contrast, fell by 92 million metric tons in 2011, or 1.7% to an estimated 5.32 billion metric tons. The European Union increased their CO2 emissions from fossil fuel by 69 million metric tons to approximately 3.56 billion metric tons. Japan’s CO2 emissions increased by 28 million metric tons, or 2.4% to approximately 1.19 billion metric tons, as a result of a substantial increase in the use of fossil fuels in power generation post-Fukushima tsunami. Russia and Canada reportedly remained fairly stable from the previous year. Nonetheless, the IEA still believes that it is still possible to prevent the earth’s temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius if “timely and significant government policy action is taken, and a range of clean energy technologies are developed and deployed globally.” One of the key technologies according to the IEA is carbon capture.

In 2009 DOE supported eleven projects to conduct site characterization of geological formations for CO2 storage. Carbon capture is really three activities: Gathering or capturing of CO2 from point sources (power plants, industrial plants, and refineries), transporting the captured CO2 to a geological storage site, and injecting the CO2 into the ground for permanent storage and monitoring the site for eternity. Capturing and transporting CO2 from industrial plants is technologically possible but is currently prohibitively expensive, though DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory and several universities are exploring ways to bring down the costs or raise the costs of other energy sources.  A significant portion of the CO2 generated in the United States and the world is not generated from large stationary point sources, but from cars, homes, and smaller sites. Only about a quarter of the CO2 generated from fossil fuel combustion annually is generated at large point sources the only possible capture points. Storing even a portion of this amount of CO2 would require capturing the gas at many locations around the country and transporting it to facilities that could inject the CO2 into appropriate subsurface rock formations. According to the researchers efficient underground storage of CO2 requires that it be in the supercritical (liquid) phase to minimize required storage volume.

In order for CO2 to remain in a supercritical phase, the pressure in the storage reservoir must be greater than about 68 atmospheres and at temperatures above 31.1°C. (Sminchak et al., 2001). These conditions require that the CO2 be injected at high pressures, which can only be achieved at depths greater than about 2,600 feet below the earth’s surface. The supercritical CO2 will be injected into the geologic formations that are overlain by appropriate sealing formations and geologic traps that will prevent the CO2 from escaping as the CO2 injection well remains in continuous operation for years or decades. The volumes of supercritical CO2 envisioned for carbon capture are huge. A recent U.S. National Research Council report suggests that carbon capture and deep earth sequestering could potentially induce earthquakes because significant volumes of fluids are injected underground over long periods of time. However, insufficient data exists at this time to evaluate this risk. An IPCC Special Report on CO2 capture and storage suggests that between 73 and 183 million metric tons of CO2 could be captured and stored worldwide from both coal and natural gas energy plants each year (Metz, 2005).  The IPCC envision that carbon capture and well injection would take place at a number of locations, ideally places near to power plants that produce CO2 to avoid long transportation distances under pressure.

American Electric Power, AEP, participated in three DOE funded projects to advance CCS technologies. All were conducted at the Mountaineer Plant in New Haven, West Virginia (from which some of my power is supplied within the PMJ Interconnection). AEP planned to replace its pilot demonstration CO2 capture plant with a larger $668 million Carbon Capture and Storage facility, which would have buried more than 1 million metric tons of CO₂ a year, splitting construction costs evenly with the DOE, but failed to obtain the consumer rate increases necessary to fund the experiment. The project has been discontinued. In 2010 there were almost 1,400 coal fired electrical generating units in the United States if each were to be converted to carbon capture operation the total cost would be almost a trillion dollars in construction costs (assuming no cost over runs) and capture 1.4 billion metric tons of CO2 per year. This would represent 26% of the net annual CO2 emissions of the United States and increase average electrical rates 25% nationally for just building the units. Electrical rates would have to increase more if there were any annual operating costs of the Carbon Capture unit. Actual rate increases would be regional.  

The AEP projects were demonstrations of Alstom’s Chilled Ammonia Process for Post-Combustion CO2 Capture. The process uses ammonium carbonate to absorb CO2 and create ammonium bicarbonate. This resulting ammonium bicarbonate is converted back to ammonium carbonate in a regenerator and is reused to repeat the process. The flue gas, cleaned of CO2, but with the tell-tale smell of the ammonia reaction, flows back to the stack and the captured CO2 is sent for storage. Once captured, the CO2 is compressed into a liquid state and is injected 1.5 miles beneath the earth’s surface. Several major pilot projects, in Europe have also been cancelled in the last few years because of doubts over their financial and technical viability. Some are still under consideration for EU and government funding, but the need to rescue the Euro and European Banks has taken the financial resources of the European Union. Ayrshire Power in Scotland, blamed their cancelled plans for a new carbon-capture power station at Hunterston on the recession and anxieties about winning funding from the government and the same reasons were given for the cancellation of the Longannet power station in Fife.

 Globally, only a few, small-scale commercial carbon capture projects are in operation. The oil and gas fields in the North Sea are the site of the world’s first offshore commercial CO2 capture and storage project. Carbon dioxide is captured at a plant located on the offshore natural gas platforms and is stored underground in a sandstone well approximately 2,600 feet below the sea bed. The CO2 tax levied on offshore oil and gas operations by the Norwegian government made the project worthwhile and the drilling rig and available aquifer made it possible. CO2 is removed from the natural gas produced at the Sleipner field in the North Sea and re-injected it into a very porous, permeable sandstone and saline aquifer above the oil and gas reserves. Approximately 1 million metric tons of CO2 have been stored each year since 2000 when the system went into operation. This is just a small fraction of the 31.5 billion metric tons of CO2 released into the atmosphere each year.  It appears as if the United States has passed the point of peak CO2, but the atmosphere of the earth is interconnected and China and India appear to be increasing their CO2 emissions by 860 million metric tons a year. It matters what kind and how efficient a power plant is installed in China or India since they will be sending particulates and CO2 into the atmosphere for decades. Nonetheless, we have no control over the growth in India and China’s coal fired power supply, nor in the abandonment of nuclear power by Germany, Belgium, Switzerland and Japan in the next decade in response to the damage to the nuclear reactors that occurred in the Japanese Fukushima tsunami. 

Carbon Dioxide Limit for New Power Plants

On Tuesday the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed the first Clean Air Act standard for carbon dioxide. Under the new rule, new power plants will have to emit no more than 1,000 tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of energy produced. That standard effectively changes the fuel of choice for all future power capacity additions to natural gas, nuclear, or the renewable category (with government subsidies). All existing plants and currently permitted and built in the next 12 months will be grandfathered and exempt from this new rule. According to the EPA a coal plant currently produces about 1,800 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of electricity. EPA says the rule that requires new plants to produce no more than 1,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour as creating “a path forward for new technologies to be deployed at future facilities that will allow companies to burn coal, while emitting less carbon pollution.” Nonsense, there is no proven commercial technology that can meet this carbon standard for coal fired plants. EPA intends that the current crop of coal fired power plants will be the last.

During the past year, EPA finalized two regulations that were specifically targeting coal fired power plants. The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) regulates mercury, arsenic, acid gas, nickel, selenium, and cyanide. MATS was finalized on December 21. 2011. The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, CSAPR, which requires reductions of sulfur-dioxide and nitrogen-oxide emissions in coal fired plants, was made final in July but at the end of last year, the U.S. Court of Appeals District of Columbia Circuit granted a stay to the implementation of the CSAPR pending resolution of the legal challenges. The case is scheduled to be heard in mid-April 2012. CSAPR, if eventually implemented will reduce SO2 emissions by 73% from 2005 levels and NOx emissions by 54% at the approximately 1,000 coal fired electrical generation plants in the eastern half of the country.

Our modern society requires power and the new regulation by grandfathering the existing power plants ensures that we will not be sitting in the dark any time soon. In the U.S. in 2010 over 90% of electrical power was produced by steam turbines powered by coal, oil, gas, and bio fuels. Wind and water may be used to spin the turbines as well. In 2010 Coal produced 45 % of electricity, nuclear power generated 20% of the electricity used, natural gas generated 24% of the electricity used, hydroelectric generated 6%, wind 1% and oil, wood, biomass, geothermal solar and other generated the rest. The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule will reshape the industry reducing coal fired plants. The new source carbon dioxide rule will ensure that any additional electrical capacity built will not be coal and MATS and CASPR will reduce the existing capacity of coal produced electricity. There will be impacts to the economy and our society to the reduction in demand for coal in the United States, the costs to convert, replace and upgrade power plants, and increasing the demand for natural gas which appears to be at this moment the fuel of choice.

In 2010, U.S. coal production was 1,050 million metric tons with 92.5% of the coal used to generate electricity. Without electrical generation there is little demand for coal and coal miners. The EPA’s MATS and CSPAR regulation and the greenhouse gas regulations will reduce and possibly someday eliminate the economic feasibility of coal fired electrical generation plants. However our nation requires power, and the current coal fired power plants will continue to need coal for the short term. The use of coal to generate electrical power has an interesting history. There was a time when petroleum was widely used for electrical generation. In an attempt to regain energy independence after the gas rationing and oil shortages of the 1973 Oil Embargo, the nation turned to its vast coal reserves. Between 1973 and 1976, coal production increased by 14.4%. In 1978, the Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act mandated conversion of most existing oil-burning power plants to coal or natural gas. Thought the act was repealed in 1987, the impact on our nation and its economy extends to today, though the goals and values of our government have changed. Now the EPA is reshaping the future, clearly away from coal though the impacts on our environment and economy intended and any unintended are yet to be seen.

Looking at the economy as a whole and not just the electrical power sector, in 2010 the major energy sources in the United States are petroleum-gas and oil (37%), natural gas (25%), coal (21%), nuclear (9%), and renewable energy primarily biomass and hydro power generation (8%). The United States only produces about 75% of the energy we consume, the shortfall is imported petroleum. The major users of energy in the United States are heating of residential and commercial buildings (11%), industry (20%), transportation including cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships (27.4%), and electric power generation (40%).

Natural gas appears to be the current fuel of choice. It is the source of 25% of the energy consumed in the United States and in 2010 was used almost equally for industry, electrical generations and residential and commercial heating. Most, but not yet all, of the natural gas consumed in the United States is produced in the United States. Domestic natural gas production and consumption were nearly in balance through 1986, though U.S. production of natural gas peaked in 1973. From 1986 to 2006 consumption of natural gas outpaced domestic production, and imports rose. Then in 2006 U.S. production of natural gas began to increase as a result of the development of more efficient and cost effective hydraulic fracturing techniques. In 2010 natural gas production in the United States reached the highest recorded annual total since 1973 and continues to climb. Regulation and control of hydraulic fracturing will impact the cost of natural gas production in the United States, the availability of gas and the environmental impact to our natural resources.

The earth’s atmosphere is interconnected. The EPA has estimated that just one-quarter of U.S. mercury emissions from coal-burning power plants are deposited within the contiguous U.S. The remainder enters the global cycle. Conversely, current estimates are that less than half of all mercury deposition within the United States comes from American sources. Worldwide CO2 emissions are up 6%, to over 30 billion tons, in 2010 40% above the 1990 level. As you can see above the increase in CO2 emissions in the United States was far more modest, increasing 8% over 19 years. The worldwide level of CO2 is higher than the worst-case scenario outlined by climate experts just five years ago, but temperatures have not (yet) risen as projected by the climate models. The relationship of climate change to worldwide CO2 levels may not be the one assumed in the climate models. Nonetheless, the EPA continues to work diligently to achieve President Obama’s commitment in Copenhagen to reduce United States emissions of CO2 17% by 2020.

Coal Production, the EPA and Atmospheric Pollution

Some of the nation's coal-fired power plants were originally built as petroleum fired. Both types of electrical power plants were built as the nation grew and industrialized in the first half of the 20th century when coal and oil were the most abundant and cheapest available fuel. However, by 2009 coal burning power plants supplied 45% of the electricity produced, and petroleum supplied about 1%. After the end of World War II the use of coal for rail and water transportation and for heating declined. Coal demand grew starting growing again in the 1960’s with the post-War growth in American industry and increased use for electricity generation. In 1950, U.S. coal production was 508 million metric tons. In 2010, U.S. coal production was 1,050 million metric tons, but what appears as a smooth steady rise did not happen that way.

The use of coal rather than petroleum for electrical generations is a direct result of the 1973 Oil Embargo. In an attempt to regain energy independence after the gas rationing, and oil shortages of the Embargo, the nation turned to its vast coal reserves. Between 1973 and 1976, coal production increased by 14.4%. In 1978, the Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act mandated conversion of most existing oil-burning power plants to coal or natural gas. Thirty years later our point of view has changed.

The coal burning power plants emit 48 tons of mercury annually as well as particulates and other pollutants. In addition, coal combustion adds a significant amount of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere per unit of heat energy, more than does the combustion of other fossil fuels. According to a combined report from the U.S. EPA and the Department of Energy, coal generates 2.1 pounds of CO2 per kWh while natural gas generates 1.3 pounds of CO2 per kWh. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, launched the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program in October 2009, requiring the reporting of carbon dioxide, CO2, data from large stationary emission sources, as well as suppliers of fuel that would emit GHGs if used. EPA intends to promulgate CO2 regulations in the coming year based on the data collected, but in the meantime has guidance on CO2 emissions permitting.

In the past year, EPA finalized two regulations that were specifically targeting coal fired power plants. The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) regulates mercury, arsenic, acid gas, nickel, selenium, and cyanide. MATS was finalized on December 21. 2011. The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, CSAPR, which requires reductions of sulfur-dioxide and nitrogen-oxide emissions in coal fired plants was made final in July but at the end of last year, the U.S. Court of Appeals District of Columbia Circuit granted a stay to the implementation of the CSAPR pending resolution of the legal challenges. CSAPR, if eventually implemented will reduce SO2 emissions by 73% from 2005 levels and NOx emissions by 54% at the approximately 1,000 coal fired electrical generation plants in the eastern half of the country. It should be clear that EPA’s goal is to reduce if not eliminate the use of coal for power generation.

The composition and total of the net summer generating capacity for electricity in the U. S. has changed in the past decade. Since 1999 the generating capacity for natural gas has more than doubled while the generating capacity for coal fired electrical generators has remained constant. In 2010 natural gas was used to produce 24% of U. S. electricity. Coal was used to product 45 % of electricity. However, the summer net generating capacity of natural gas now exceeds coal. With the tightening and expansion of regulations by the EPA under the Clean Air Act of coal powered generating plants for carbon emissions, mercury, arsenic, acid gases and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule the federal government looks likely to end electrical generation from coal as a fuel source. This will only be accelerated by the recent fall in natural gas prices.

In 2010, U.S. coal production was 1,050 million metric tons with 92.5% of the coal used to generate electricity. Without electrical generation there is little demand for coal. The EPA’s MATS and CSPAR regulation and the forthcoming greenhouse gas regulations will eliminate the economic feasibility of coal fired electrical generation plants and all but end coal mining in the United States (at least for this generation). However our nation requires power, and in the foreseeable future that is not going to change. Regulation can also be used to limit other sources of energy- the Keystone XL pipeline and Hydraulic Fracturing (fracking) bans. The cost of power is a key factor in determining the cost of production, and the cost of living. To a large extent we have exported manufacturing to China and other emerging economies. China’s use of coal for electricity generation was 1.29 billion metric tons last year, but their pollution control was weak.

The earth’s atmosphere is interconnected. That is accepted when it comes to carbon dioxide or the chemicals that erode the ozone layer, but it also applies to industrial pollutants. The EPA has estimated that just one-quarter of U.S. mercury emissions from coal-burning power plants are deposited within the contiguous U.S. The remainder enters the global cycle. Conversely, current estimates are that less than half of all mercury deposition within the United States comes from American sources. According to the Mount Bachelor Observatory, other Chinese exports include acid rain that falls in China, Korea, and Japan, and pollutants that enter the air stream including sulfates, NOx, black carbon, soot produced by cars, stoves, factories, and crop burning. It seems that EPA can reduce our economic growth without actually reducing the air pollution we experience.

Energy Consumption in the US 2010

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the statistics branch of the Department of Energy, the US used 98 quadrillion BTU last year. Energy sources are measured in different physical units depending on the type of energy source: barrels of oil, cubic feet of natural gas, tons of coal, kilowatt hours of electricity. In the United States, British thermal units (Btu), a measure of heat energy, is a commonly used unit for comparing different types of energy. In 2010, U.S. primary energy use equaled 98 quadrillion (=E15, or one thousand trillion) Btu. If it helps to visualize this any better, that is equivalent to about 2,471 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) the energy measurement standard used by the International Energy Agency, IEA, the keeper of world statistics. In a world with seven billion people the United States is estimated to have 310 million people, about 4% of the world’s population, 7% of the land mass and use about 14% of the energy (depending on how fast China and India are growing since the world energy data is about two years old).

In the United States the US Energy Information Administration collects and reports the energy statistics in quadrillion BTUs and has recently reported the summary data for 2010. These statistics paint a picture of who we are today. The major energy sources in the United States are petroleum-gas and oil (37%), natural gas (25%), coal (21%), nuclear (9%), and renewable energy primarily biomass and hydro power generation (8%). The United States only produces about 75% of the energy we consume, the shortfall is imported petroleum. The major users are heating of residential and commercial buildings (11%), industry (20%), transportation including cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships (27.4%), and electric power generation (40%).

The slightly complicated chart above shows the types of fuel and the sector that consumes it. Looking at petroleum, you can see that it supplies 37% of our energy needs. Transportation, cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships, uses 71% of petroleum and that petroleum provides 94% of the total energy used in transportation. Industry uses 22% of the total petroleum consumed by the United States to supply 40% of the energy used by industry. Studying all the details of the chart tells you a lot about the United States in 2010. It will also allow you to understand the impact that policies, regulation and scientific advances might have on the country.

For example, 92% of coal mined in the United States is used to generate electricity, regulations like the EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule affecting electricity generation are likely to impact coal use, cost of electricity, mining and mining regions. In 2010, of the 1,085.3 million short tons of coal produced in the United States, about 7.5% was exported, so if the number of coal fired electrical plants is decreased, the demand for coal to produce electricity is reduced, the amount of coal mined in the United States will decrease, the number of coal miners and employees of coal companies will decrease, the trains transporting coal and their employees will not be necessary, and the cost of electricity will increase as the electrical power industry builds new generation plants burning other fuels.
.
Some primary energy sources, such as nuclear and coal, are entirely used in one sector, electrical generation. Others, like natural gas and renewables, are more evenly distributed across sectors. Similarly, while transportation is almost entirely dependent on petroleum, electric power uses a variety of fuels. Because the United States is the world’s largest oil importer, it may seem surprising that it also exports about 2 million barrels a day of refined petroleum products. It seems were are also an excellent oil refiner on the easily accessed Gulf Coast. Petroleum is used primarily for gasoline for cars (55%), diesel for trucks and heating oil (23%), propane and liquefied petroleum gases used in homes and farms for cooking, heating, and jet fuel (9%). The five biggest sources of net crude oil imported to the United States in 2010 were: Canada (25%), Saudi Arabia (12%), Nigeria (11%), Venezuela (10%), Mexico (9%). Policy decisions about a future Keystone pipeline may change that in the future. U.S. crude oil imports grew rapidly from mid-20th century until the late 1970s, but fell sharply from 1979 to 1985 because of restructuring the economy (manufacturing as a component of the economy was reduced), conservation, and improved efficiency. After 1985, the upward trend resumed, peaking at 10.1 million barrels per day in 2005, and falling to 9.2 million barrels per day in 2010.

Natural gas is the source of 25% of the energy consumed in the United States and in 2010 was used almost equally for industry, electrical generations and residential and commercial heating. Most, but not all, of the natural gas consumed in the United States is produced in the United States. Some natural gas is imported to the United States in the older Keystone pipelines. Natural gas is also being shipped to the United States as liquefied natural gas (LNG). U.S. natural gas production and consumption were nearly in balance through 1986 though U.S. production of natural gas peaked in 1973. From 1986 to 2006 consumption of natural gas outpaced production, and imports rose. Then in 2006 U.S. production of natural gas began to increase as a result of the development of more efficient and cost effective hydraulic fracturing techniques. In 2010 natural gas production in the United States reached the highest recorded annual total since 1973. Regulation and control of hydraulic fracturing will impact the cost of natural gas production in the United States, the availability of gas and the environmental impact to our natural resources.

In truth I am an old time engineer who learned to look at the world with a slide rule (calculators were just coming in and thought to be cheating). Through numbers I understand the world, policies and see relationships.

Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the United States

Last Wednesday, the U.S. EPA released the list of facilities that emitted the most carbon dioxide in 2010. This is in preparation for later this year when the U.S. EPA is expected to promulgate new carbon dioxide standards for power plants. Power plants accounted for more than half of the greenhouse-gas emissions by the major emitters on the list, with refineries and chemical facilities also contributing large shares. Of the 100 largest emitters—defined by the EPA as facilities emitting more than 7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent—96 of them are power plants. Two are refineries and two are iron and steel mills. (Using government respiration data for mine collapse survival, the population of the United States emitted 170 million metric tons of CO2 by breathing last year.)

According to the United States the US Energy Information Administration that collects and reports the energy statistics, U.S. energy related carbon dioxide emissions in the United States totaled 5,426 million metric tons in 2009 (the most recent year available) down from a peak of 6,022 million metric tons in 2007. For the past ten years electrical generation accounted for approximately 40% of the carbon dioxide emissions in the United States, up from 36% in 1990 when industrial sources accounted for a larger share of the economy and significantly higher share of CO2 emissions.

EPA launched the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program in October 2009, requiring the reporting of carbon dioxide data from large stationary emission sources, as well as suppliers of fuel that would emit GHGs if used. This is the first year that data was reported. Though EPA uses the term greenhouse gasses in their press release and program title they are only talking about carbon dioxide, though the main greenhouse substances in the earth's atmosphere are water vapor and clouds. Carbon dioxide represents less than 0.04% (386 parts per million) of the atmosphere and its significant increase over the past hundred years or so is attributed to man’s impact on earth. The other greenhouse gasses are methane (1.8 parts per million), nitrous oxide (0.3 parts per million), hydrofluocarbons (0.00025 parts per million), Perfluorocarbons (0.00086 parts per million), and sulfur hexafloride (0.000006 parts per million). The Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) does not represent total U.S. emissions, only the major point sources, what EPA calls stationary sources.

The largest carbon dioxide generators on the U.S. EPA list are generally speaking the largest stationary combustion sources, the largest electrical generation plants followed by large industrial furnaces (iron and steel making and refineries that flair excess gas) that were built during the era of massive size plants and do not necessarily reflect how efficient, clean or dirty a plant is. The amount of carbon dioxide released is a function of the size of facility and the type of fuel used. According to a combined report from the U.S. EPA and the Department of Energy, coal generates 2.1 pounds of CO2 per kWh while natural gas generates 1.3 pounds of CO2 per kWh. The major users of fuel are heating of residential and commercial buildings (11%), industry (20%), transportation including cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships (27.4%), and electric power generation (40%).

The largest stationary sources of CO2 are large power plants. Coal fired power plants are with the exception of nuclear power the largest electrical generation plants, and coal which generates 38% more carbon dioxide when burned than natural gas. Ninety-two and a half percent of the coal mined in the United States is used to generate 45% of the electricity produced in the United States. To protect the environment and meet the President Obama’s pledge to reduce U.S greenhouse gas emissions to 17% below the 2005 levels by 2020 the U.S. EPA wants to eliminate coal as a fuel source for electrical power plant generation through increasing regulation of coal fired electrical generation plants and new millage and emission standards mandated for the automobile industry.

The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) regulates mercury, arsenic, acid gas, nickel, selenium, and cyanide. MATS was finalized on December 21. 2011. This regulation will slash emissions of these pollutants primarily from coal fired electrical generation plants. According to the EPA it will cost $9.6 billion annually to comply with the MATS regulations and Industry analysts believe that 10% to 20% of U.S. coal-fired generating capacity will be shut down by 2016. The combined benefit of MATS and the Cross State Air Pollution Rule was estimated by the U.S. EPA to total over decades up to $380 billion in the form of longer, healthier lives and reduced health care costs.

The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, CSAPR, which requires reductions of sulfur-dioxide and nitrogen-oxide emissions in coal fired plants and is estimated to cost $2.4 billion in annual costs. CSAPR was made final in July but at the end of last year, the U.S. Court of Appeals District of Columbia Circuit granted a stay to the implementation of the CSAPR pending resolution of the legal challenges. CSAPR, if eventually implemented will reduce SO2 emissions by 73% from 2005 levels and NOx emissions by 54% at the approximately 1,000 coal fired electrical generation plants in the eastern half of the country.

Now the U.S. EPA is preparing for the release later this year of CO2 regulations for power plants by releasing the list of industrial CO2 emitters. Electrical generation and automobiles and trucks account for 74% of the carbon dioxide emissions in the United States. Last summer the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) finalized the new millage and emission standards for automobiles and light trucks for model year 2012 through 2016. The EPA GHG standards require these vehicles to meet an estimated combined average emissions level of 250 grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) per mile in model year 2016, equivalent to 35.5 miles per gallon (mpg).

Since 1990 global CO2 emissions have gone from 21 billion tons of CO2 to 29 billion tons of CO2 in 2009 according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Global emissions of CO2 increased 38% despite a 14.7% decrease below their 1990 level for the Kyoto Participants and the United States increased of about 7% above 1990 levels. The bulk of the increase has come from China, Africa, Middle East, India and the rest of Asia. The United States and 35 Kyoto participants represent less than half the world CO2 emissions and that is shrinking every year. Now the United States appears on track to reduce their CO2 emissions over 1% below their 1990 levels and fulfill the promise that President Obama made at the Copenhagen meeting in 2010 when the President pledged to reduce U.S greenhouse gas emissions to 17% below the 2005 levels by 2020.

EPA and Power Generation in the US 2011

On Friday, December 30th 2011 the U.S. Court of Appeals District of Columbia Circuit granted a stay to the implementation of the EPA’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, CSAPR, pending resolution of the legal challenges brought by 30 parties consisting of states, utilities, unions and others that have been consolidated into a single legal challenge to this rule. The CSAPR was made final in July (and modified in October), and affects about 1,000 power plants in the eastern half of the United States. In 23 states coal fired utilities will be required to reduce annual SO2 emissions in order to reduce downwind pollution. In 25 states utilities will be required to reduce ozone season NOX emissions. The October version of CSAPR made what EPA characterized as a technical correction, but served to reduce the reduction requirements in the first two years. Nonetheless, all the impacted states were required to reduce SO2 emissions beginning in 2012. The stay prevents the implementation of these requirements today and delays these changes. The CSAPR was to replace EPA's 2005 Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). The 2005 CAIR will remain in effect pending the legal resolution of the issue.

The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) should not be confused with the recently finalized mercury, arsenic, and acid gas regulations, the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). MATS regulates mercury, arsenic, acid gas, nickel, selenium, and cyanide and was finalized on December 21. 2011. That standard slashes emissions of those pollutants primarily from coal fired electrical generation plants. The Cross-State rule was also aimed at coal fired electrical generation plants, but was designed to slash smokestack emissions of SO2 and NOX that can travel into neighboring states. These pollutants react in the atmosphere to form fine particles and ground-level ozone and are transported long distances, making it difficult for other states to achieve their particle requirements under the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

According to the EPA the final CSAPR rule yields $120 to $280 billion in annual health and environmental benefits, including avoiding 13,000 to 34,000 premature deaths. At an annual projected annual cost of $800 million in addition to the estimated $1.6 billion per year in capital investments already required under the 2005 CAIR. For a total annual cost of $2.4 billion dollars 240 million Americans with have cleaner air. Had the rule proceeded on schedule, EPA estimates that by 2014 CSAPR would have reduced SO2 emissions by 73% from 2005 levels and NOx emissions by 54%.

The primary impact of the new rules will be on coal-fired plants more than 40 years old that have not yet installed state-of-the-art pollution controls. Many of these plants are inefficient and will be replaced by more efficient and cleaner burning plants, probably combined cycle natural gas plants. The Edison Electric Institute, an industry trade group, claims the combined new rules will cost utilities up to $129 billion not $2.4 billion per year that the EPA estimates and eliminate one-fifth of America's coal fired electrical capacity though it is unclear what portion of that cost is associated with each rule.

Most of the electricity in the United States is produced using steam turbines. Coal is the most common fuel for generating electricity in the United States. In 2010 Coal produced 45% of electricity used in the United States, nuclear power generated 20%, natural gas generated 24%, hydroelectric generated 6%, wind 1% and oil, wood, biomass, geothermal solar and other generated the rest. If the Edison Institute is correct, 20% of the coal fired electrical capacity will be eliminated. Because 92% of coal mined in the United States is used to generate electricity, this will impact the coal mining industry. In 2010 1,085 million short tons of coal were produced in the United States, about 7.5% was exported, almost all of the rest was used to generate electricity. If the number of coal fired electrical plants is decreased by 20%, the demand for coal to produce electricity is reduced, the amount of coal mined in the United States will decrease by about 200 million short tons, the number of coal miners and employees of coal companies will decrease, fewer trains to transport the coal will be necessary, and the cost of electricity will increase (as reported by the EPA) as the electrical power industry builds new generation plants burning other fuels.

The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule appear designed to reshape the power generation industry reducing coal fired plants, but some fuel will need to be used to spin the turbines that produce electricity. The electric power sector has seen large changes in the fuel mix over the years, so this is not new. A half a century ago, nuclear energy played no role in electric power generation, but in 2010, nuclear energy provided 21% of the energy used to generate U.S. electricity. Oil provided 18% of the fuel for electric generation in 1973, but its share has declined to 1% in 2010. In the past the changes in fuel mix were accomplished often by adding, not replacing plants as the economy grew. With much slower growth in the demand for electricity, the change in fuel mix will have to be accomplished almost entirely by replacing plants.

There will be economic impacts to the reduction in demand for coal in the United States, the cost to convert, replace and upgrade power plants, and increasing the demand for natural gas. The costs for these changes will be born in the present while the benefits occur in the future with lower health care costs and higher quality of life. If the plan is to eliminate the use of coal to generate electricity, be upfront and clear about the goal, the benefits and the costs. You cannot eliminate coal without replacing that fuel with another. Natural gas from shale hydro fracking is the obvious substitute, but EPA has barely begun studying the environmental impacts from fracking. As a nation we need to decide if we intend to abandon coal and embrace fracking without fully understanding the risks associated with fracking.

EPA Mercury Air Standards and Electrical Power in the United States

On Wednesday, December 21, 2011 the U.S. EPA released the final regulation for controlling mercury, and other toxic emissions from coal fired power plants. The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) regulates mercury, arsenic, acid gas, nickel, selenium, and cyanide. The standards will slash emissions of these pollutants primarily from coal fired electrical generation plants. This should not be confused with the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, which requires reductions of sulfur-dioxide and nitrogen-oxide emissions in 23 Eastern and Midwestern states beginning next year, as well as seasonal ozone reductions in 28 states. Combined these two rules will have a significant impact on the future cost and availability of electrical power in the United States and should be part of a careful and well thought out and communicated environmental and energy plan for the nation.

According to the EPA it will cost $9.6 billion annually to comply with the MATS regulations and Industry analysts believe that 10% to 20% of U.S. coal-fired generating capacity will be shut down by 2016. According to the EPA, the two rules together are estimated to prevent up to 46,000 premature deaths, 540,000 asthma attacks among children, 24,500 emergency room visits and hospital admissions. “The two programs are an investment in public health that will provide a total of up to $380 billion in return to American families in the form of longer, healthier lives and reduced health care costs. “The EPA did not give an estimated combined cost of the two rules; however, the Edison Electric Institute, an industry trade group, claims the combined new rules will cost utilities up to $129 billion and eliminate one-fifth of America's coal electrical generating capacity.

In 2010 coal was used to product 45 % of electricity while oil was used to generate less than 1% of electricity, so the MSTS rule is intended for coal plants. The nation's coal-fired power plants were built as the nation grew and industrialized in the first half of the 20th century when coal was the most abundant and cheapest available fuel. With the existing power plants in place coal is still much cheaper than natural gas for generating electricity, but the tightening of regulations by EPA under the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (even with recent modifications) will decrease that financial advantage because coal burns dirtier than natural gas. In addition, the recent availability of shale gas has lowered the cost of natural gas and provided a potentially reliable supply.

These new regulations will require existing plants to meet emission standards that are at least as stringent as the top 12% best-performing coal facilities and may force some plants to convert to natural gas fuel or to shut down entirely. The generating capacity will have to be replaced with new plants that burn cleaner fuels and produce less pollution, but the cost of power will increase. Several state utility commissioners say they fear the agency's recent rules will push up electricity prices or could even hurt electric-system reliability if too many power plants are shut down. That is countered by the EPA who states that less than 1% of the national generating capacity will be lost.
According to EPA there are about 600 power plants covered by these standards. They emit harmful pollutants including mercury, non-mercury metallic toxics, acid gases, and organic air toxics including dioxin.

Our modern society requires power - that is not going to change. The cost of power is a key factor in determining the cost of production, and the cost of living. In the U.S. in 2010 over 90% of electrical power was produced by steam turbines powered by coal, oil, gas, and bio fuels. Wind and water may be used to spin the turbines as well. Coal produced 45 % of electricity, nuclear power generated 20% of the electricity used, natural gas generated 24 % the electricity used, hydroelectric generated 6%, wind 1% and oil, wood, biomass, geothermal solar and other generated the rest. The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule will reshape the industry reducing coal fired plants, but some fuel will need to be used to spin the turbines. In all probability natural gas will be substituted for coal. There will be economic impacts to the reduction in demand for coal in the United States, the cost to convert, replace and upgrade power plants, and increasing the demand for natural gas.

Natural gas is the cleanest of the fossil fuels. Burning natural gas in the place of coal emits fewer harmful pollutants, but methane, the principle component of natural gas, is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Methane has an ability to trap heat almost 21 times more effectively than carbon dioxide. This past year researchers at Carnegie Mellon University compared greenhouse gas emissions from the Marcellus Shale region with emissions from coal used for electricity generation. The authors found that natural gas from the Marcellus shale had lower life cycle greenhouse gas emissions than coal for production of electricity by 20–50% depending upon plant efficiencies and natural gas emissions variability. Shale sourced natural gas could provide a reliable source of natural gas for our nation in this century and might make the conversion of some power generation worthwhile. However, before we push a significant portion of our electrical generating capacity from coal to natural gas, we should ensure that we will have the natural gas supplies available at the time and location that it is needed to produce a reliable electrical grid.

EPA Air Rules and Power Generation in the United States

Our modern society requires power and that is not going to change. The cost of power is a key factor in determining the cost of production, and the cost of living. Although power plants are regulated by federal and state laws to protect human health and the environment, there is a wide variation of environmental impacts associated with power generation technologies. In the U.S. natural gas is used to produce 21 % of its electricity. Coal is used to product 48 % of electricity. With the existing power plants in place coal is still much cheaper than natural gas for generating electricity, but the tightening of regulations by the EPA under the Clean Air Act of coal powered generating plants for carbon emissions, mercury, arsenic, acid gases and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (even with recent modifications) will decrease that financial advantage because coal burns dirtier than natural gas.

The nation's coal-fired power plants were built as the nation grew and industrialized in the first half of the 20th century when coal was the most abundant and cheapest available fuel. The coal burning power plants emit 48 tons of mercury annually as well as particulates and other pollutants. According to the EPA, Mercury can cause neurological disorders in children and the mercury emissions from power plants pose "significant hazards to public health" and must be reduced. By forcing the plants to curb emissions of mercury, arsenic and acid gases, the EPA says it can prevent as many as 17,000 premature deaths a year caused by breathing air laced with coal-fueled pollution. These new regulations will require existing plants to meet emission standards that are at least as stringent as the top 12% best-performing coal facilities and may force some plants to convert to natural gas fuel or to shut down entirely. The generating capacity will have to be replaced with new plants that burn cleaner fuels and produce less pollution, but the cost of power will increase.

The mercury, arsenic, and acid gas regulations should not be confused with the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule which is a separate set of EPA regulations, aimed at slashing smokestack emissions that can travel into neighboring states, and were recently changed to allow 10 states (notably Texas who sued the EPA), to emit more smog-causing pollution than had initially been permitted. The change will allow the 10 states to emit 76,000 tons more pollution (70,000 tons will come from Texas) or about 2% of the total pollution the EPA will regulate under this new rule. The rule is designed to decrease smokestack emissions, mostly from coal-fired power plants, in 27 states, that contribute to unhealthy air downwind and is expected to prevent up to 34,000 untimely deaths and combined with the other rules will prevent 51,000 premature deaths, but the cost in terms of increased electrical rates, jobs and lives disrupted by unemployment and diminished economic opportunity. The recent changes give more leeway to the dirtiest facilities, but the EPA explains that the change was made because it became apparent that air stack scrubbers were not as efficient as initially assumed in the EPA’s first version of the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. Nonetheless, the primary impact of the new rules will be on coal-fired plants more than 40 years old that have not yet installed state-of-the-art pollution controls. Many of these plants are inefficient and will be replaced by more efficient combined cycle natural gas plants. Edison Electric Institute, an industry trade group, claims the combined new rules will cost utilities up to $129 billion and eliminate one-fifth of America's coal capacity.

Natural gas is the cleanest of the fossil fuels. Burning natural gas in the place of coal emits fewer harmful pollutants. Methane, the principle component of natural gas, is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Methane has an ability to trap heat almost 21 times more effectively than carbon dioxide. This year researchers at Carnegie Mellon University compared greenhouse gas emissions from the Marcellus Shale region with emissions from coal used for electricity generation. The authors found that natural gas from the Marcellus shale had lower life cycle greenhouse gas emissions than coal for production of electricity by 20–50% depending upon plant efficiencies and natural gas emissions variability. Shale sourced natural gas could provide a reliable source of natural gas for our nation in this century and might make the conversion of some power generation worthwhile. However we need to remember that the gas still is a limited resource and be cautious about what other impacts fracking might have on our other resources especially water. At least in the medium term the environmental impact from power generation will be determined by the efficiency and care of how fuel is obtained, transported, generated and used. Improving efficiency is the low lying fruit that can have an immense impact and should not be ignored while we are busy dreaming of the someday world of renewable energy. Natural gas from shale rock is plentiful in North America. Despite billions of dollars in DOE solar generation loan guarantees the generating capacity of solar power in the nation will continue to be under 3% of power generation.