Sustainable Living, Human Environmental Damage and Climate Change

Sustainable living by societies is about managing environmental resources without overexploiting what initially appeared as inexhaustibly abundant. As mankind migrated across the globe waves of extinction and over exploitation of environmental resource followed. Ancient societies have collapsed many believed to have been triggered by the destruction or exhaustion of environmental resources. Normal fluctuations in resource levels between years or decades tend to mask the signs of depletion of resources, as the current heavy rains have done in California. The complexity of ecosystem makes it difficult to know, understand and predict the consequences of human actions. Some water can be pumped from the groundwater basin and diverted from rivers without significantly impacting the water balance and ecology of the area. However, diverting all the water, over pumping the groundwater until the land subsides will destroy the ecology and watershed.

Mankind does not learn restraint easily. This is classically illustrated by “The tragedy of the Commons,” by Garreth Hardin was published in Science, December 13, 1968. The concept from the article that has survived is that what is a free and common resource is abused. Hardin said “Freedom in the commons brings ruin to all.” Because of fluctuations in “renewable” resources it is easy to mask or ignore signs of the beginnings of destruction of the water resources that California depends or any other resource that a society depends on. Fluctuations in climate or rainfall and imperfect measurements and vantage points mask trends from clear view. Despite knowledge that there are always droughts after wet years, Californians and the Western States maintain policies for rural and urban/suburban use of water and water allocations drawn up during the wet El Nino years. These are assumed to be the “normal” water allocations. In California agriculture is entirely based on profligate use of irrigation water, the vast three crops a year agri-industrial empire of this semi-arid state is based on irrigation. Water costs less than the real resource cost, so farmers plant and grow as much as their water allocation and any groundwater available can produce as the state continues down the path of ruin. Our technology and engineering have allowed us to mine the water and allow the west to expand beyond the carrying capacity of the land and the water. Vast amounts of energy are needed to deliver unsustainable amount of water to farmers and the southern cities of the state. Hard choices and restraint will be delayed until ecological and financial bankruptcy.

The "American Clean Energy and Security Act” also know as the Waxman-Markley energy bill is dead. The bill included a cap-and-trade global warming reduction plan designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. It set an overall cap on such carbon dioxide emissions that decreased over time reducing what can be emitted. This was intended to push utilities and industry to release less carbon dioxide by utilizing cleaner energy sources or increasing efficiency of the existing ones. However, it probably would have achieved it’s goal by exporting carbon burning, jobs and business and the bill is probably dead because of unintended consequences to the economy. It is unclear what impact if any this failure will have on the earth’s ecology. Climate change is constant. As seen in the geological record, throughout earths’ history climates become hotter or colder, wetter or drier, more or less variable because of natural forces like volcanic eruptions, changes in the orientation of the earths axis, variation in the heat put out by the sun (it is not constant), changes in the continents. There have been ice ages millions of years ago, the often cited “Little Ice Age” from the fifteenth to the nineteenth century, climate disruptions caused by volcanic explosions, vanishing of the rivers and lakes from the Sahara leaving it a desert. Archeologists, geologists, and the human record tell us that the climate of earth is constantly changing, but there does not appear to be a single cause that explains these changes. In each change of the climate there are those societies that fail and those that thrive. The idea that we are experiencing global warming caused by man seems a little arrogant. To think that mankind, like the Sun has the power to change the climate or prevent climate change is a naïve view of the world and the forces at play. Certainly, mankind is engaged in exploiting and overexploiting the earth’s resources and there will be local ecological collapses. How we harness technology, trade and the human capacity to adapt to changing environment to respond to these changes will determine the fate of our society and others. The future will tell us if a society that has depleted its resources can survive the further depletions of resources and environment due to changes in climate.

Water for Sale

Water for Sale is the title of a book by Fredrik Segerfeldt. The last chapter of the book begins:
“Excessively low prices fixed by politicians have lead to waste, lack of caution, and misallocation of resources-in short inefficient use of water. Distribution, moreover, has been managed by bureaucrats and public authorities with a low level of competence, little capital, and distorted incentive structure. In addition, the lack of property rights and water trading has resulted in water being pent up in less productive activities..;”

Mr. Segerfeldt was talking about the water supply in the developing world, but much of this appears true of many of the water distribution systems in our first world country. We delay maintenance of our water infrastructure as we debate the “fairness” of water rates. Our regulators and bureaucrats have allowed water companies to pump so much water from rivers that they no longer flow to the sea or have been reduced to small trickles. They have removed the cost of water from the benefits by artificially pricing water too low. The environmental costs have to be paid for by the water users. Damning and diverting rivers and pumping of groundwater have become as extensive as to change the face of the planet. The nature of governments is they do not take small steps, and then continually reevaluate the course direction. The grand actions governments tend to take are limited by knowledge and a tendency of man to believe that what he wants to see and assumes is the ultimate truth. Governments do not make quick course corrections. Central control of resources produces tragedies. (See Time Magazine article on the impact of a hydroelectric dam on India.)

“The tragedy of the Commons,” by Garreth Hardin was published in Science, December 13, 1968 and at least among environmentalists and scientists of my age are well known. The concept from the article that has survived is that what is a free and common resource is abused. The common of Hardin’s article was a community pasture that was open to all and used to graze cattle. The theory proposed by Hardin was that each cattle owner would try to keep as many cattle as possible on the commons until the carrying capacity of the land was exceeded and the land was overgrazed and the common pasture destroyed by erosion and weed dominance. Hardin said “Freedom in the commons brings ruin to all.” It was sensible for each cattle owner to increase the size of their herd because though the common pasture would be ruined, each individual would have maximized what they got out of the pasture before it was gone. This idea has of late been very poignant to me because of the work being done by the Prince William Soil and Water Conservation District in their environmentally friendly horse farm project. I have watched management techniques utilized to revitalize and manage a pasture from overgrazed with significant runoff to lush, well maintained and thriving along with the horses.

Hardin was arguing for forced population control and pollution laws in a direct command and control manner. To a large part I believe he was wrong in that argument. His assumptions about human nature were wrong; we are not mindless and respond to incentives both perverse and rational. As countries move up the development ladder, they fertility rate falls. The rise of the middle class has coincided with a fall in fertility rate. As people have more they begin to choose smaller families for their well being and the well being of their children. In China where the famously enforced one child rule has been relaxed families are for the most part still choosing one child (perverse incentives), and the crash in population will be devastating for their economy and society.

However, the Tragedy of the Commons is also an argument for private ownership. What is not owned is not protected and what is viewed as free is abused. It is an argument to have quantitative ownership of rights to use a resource. Water rights must be owned and cannot exceed the sustainable rate of with drawl. In California there is no longer any relationship of the water to the land, they have destroyed the natural ecology of water rich areas to deliver the water to Los Angeles, San Francisco and the farms. Water is wealth in California where you can grow three crops a year. As long as water costs less than the real resource cost, farmers will plant and grow as much as their water allocation as the state continues down the path of ruin. Water cannot be banked in California, use it or loose it. Eighty percent of all water use in California is for agriculture and the demand will always be just a little more than the last wet year when times were so good. The incentive scheme has become extremely perverse in California. They did not initially understand the damage they were inflicting on the groundwater basin and the environment. I believe that if we understood the value of a resource and we own it that individuals can work together to protect their common interests.