The Basics of a Well

Wells are a combination of natural and mechanical systems that serve to move water from fractures or cracks in the bedrock or pore space between grains of sediment or sand in the earth into the well and from there into the house. Generally speaking, a modern well should be drilled through the loose “overburden” of top soil, sand and sediment into the bedrock below. In geology that has groundwater, water will flow from any fractures that intersect the open borehole. In wells drilled in areas where the sediment and sand are more than a hundred or two hundred feet deep, water will flow from the pores or spaces into the well. A well should have a casing that extends at least through the overburden and possibly to the bedrock or in some instances the water table depth. In bedrock a well borehole can simply be open, but in sandy soils the borehole will require a well screen liner or slotted casing to prevent the borehole from collapsing or filling with sand and silt. Well casings used to be made of steel, but these days plastic piping is becoming more common.

For the plumbing system to function properly, the recharge rate in the well would either have to equal the pumping rate or there has to be adequate storage in the system- either a storage tank or the well itself. The recharge rate or the well recovery rate is the rate that water actually flows into the well through the rock fissures. If the well cannot recharge at the same rate at which water is being removed and does not have adequate water reserves then the well, the system would suffer intermittent episodes of severe water pressure loss. The pressure tank in the basement solves this problem by serving as storage and pressure boost, so when you turn on a faucet, the water flows. The information on your wells performance can be obtained from the water well completion report on file with the department of health. The “stabilized yield” is the recharge rate.

A well can last 50 years (I know of one well that did). However, a drop or complete loss of water production from a well can sometimes occur even in relatively young wells due to a lowered water level from persistent drought, nearby development, or over-pumping of the well which can dewater the water-bearing zones. More often, the fall in well yield over time can be caused by changes in the water well itself. According to Penn State Extension these changes can include:

• Encrustation by mineral deposits 
• Bio-fouling by the growth of microorganisms 
• Physical plugging of groundwater aquifer by sediment 
• Well screen or casing corrosion 
• Pump damage 

Monitoring of a well’s performance brings everything into view, good or bad, and allows for preventive maintenance. While many wells will last decades, not all will last that long.  My well is 21 years old.  When I had the pump and pressure tank replaced a few years back, I got a reading on the static water level. It was about 16 feet lower than recorded on the well completion report. That is a bad sign for the groundwater. Nonetheless, the problems I am most likely to experience are mechanical.

How long a well lasts depends on many factors; the geology and hydrology of the region, the amount of ground cover nearby, how the well was constructed, what equipment has been installed “down hole,” and what maintenance activities have been performed to date. Over time every component of a water system will fail. My water “burped and sputtered” one morning and I decided that was my warning and replaced the pump and pressure tank and pressure switch the next spring. The well had passed what I had determined was the median life of a pump- 15 years and I preferred to schedule my pump replacement.)

As a water well ages, the rate at which water may be pumped referred to above as the well yield tends to decrease. The mechanical components and the well structure, screens and casing all age and deteriorate. Well maintenance and monitoring of the water and well’s performance is important in keeping the water flowing. A well owner must think about their well in terms of stewardship over the long term, long before your well fails.

Well casings are subject to corrosion, pitting and perforation. Iron bacteria and scale will build up in fittings and clog the pitless adaptors and pipes. A water pressure loss can result from a pump that is too small for demand, inadequate or a failing pressure tank, or a buildup of scale in the pipes. There are a number of reasons why a well might stop producing water, but basically they break down into equipment failure, depletion of the aquifer or other groundwater problems and failing well design and construction.

The essential mechanical components of a modern drilled well system are: a submersible pump, a check valve (and additional valve every 100 feet), a pitless adaptor (a fitting that makes a 90 degree turn to make the connection between the water line in the well and the horizontal pipe that runs below the frost line to the house), a well cap (sanitary sealed), electrical wiring including a control box, pressure switch, and interior water delivery system. There are additional fittings and cut-off switches for system protection, but the above are the basics. To keep the home supplied with water the system and well must remain operational.

Drilled Water Wells and the Pitless Adaptor

If you have a water well at your home, you need to understand how it works. Even if you are going to hire help managing your well and water system you need to understand it and make sure whoever you hire knows what they are doing. I am an old lady with arthritis and ripped rotator cuff. I am pretty sure I will never pull a pump again. Pulling a pump is more than a one man job. Equipment problems are the most common well problems, but it is not always the most expensive piece of equipment that is causing a problem. 

So, lets back up. There was a time when a water well was literally a hole hand dug into the ground where you just kept digging until you reached the water table, where all the spaces between the rock and dirt particles are filled with water, and water filled the bottom of the hole. In olden times a bucket was used to take the water from the well. These types of shallow wells (under a hundred feet deep) are easily contaminated from the surface and tend to dry out during droughts. In the 21st century in the United States digging a well by hand has been largely replace by automated drilling methods. Modern wells are more often drilled by a truck-mounted drill rig that was invented at the end of the 19th century and continually improved in the 20th century.

Howard Hughs, the one we all think of, who was the founder of Hughs Aircraft and the reclusive billionaire was actually Howard R. Hughs Jr. His father, Howard R. Hughes Sr. (who died when Howard Jr. was 19) along with a man named Sharp were the inventors of the two-cone rotary drill bit used for drilling for oil. This drill bit design also impacted water supply by enabling deeper drilling through rock. The Sharp-Hughes bit allowed access to more reliable and consistent water sources in areas where shallow aquifers were not available or sufficient. The first major advancement in water wells in the 20th century was the ability to drill them deeper for a more pristine and reliable water supply.

from privatewellclass.org

Most modern drilled wells are built with a submersible pump and sanitary sealed well cap so that the ground water is not exposed to potential contaminants before it reaches your home. This is accomplished by using a pitless adapter within the well. This adapter is designed to provide a sanitary seal at the point where the water line leaves the well to enter your home. The pitless adaptor attaches directly to the well  casing below the frost line and provides a watertight subsurface connection, protecting the well from frost and contamination. In older pump installations, above ground jet pumps were often used in a pit, which potentially allowed the introduction of contaminants at the surface concrete pit cover.

The essential components of a modern drilled well system are: a submersible pump, a check valve (and additional valve every 100 feet), a pitless adaptor, a well cap, electrical wiring including a control box, pressure switch, and interior water delivery system. There are additional fittings and cut-off switches for system protection, but the above are the basics. The components within the basement provide consistent water pressure at the fixtures.

both parts of the pitless adaptor put together from PITLESS ADAPTER | HHPAC

The right portion slides into the top of the left portion which is connected to the well casing

here you see the blank end of the portion that will connect to the pipe (right)

The invention of the pneumatic reciprocating piston Reverse Circulation drills, submersible pump and pitless adaptor changed everything. Wells could easily be drilled deeper and faster. Unlike older systems that required a well pit to house the connection, pitless adaptors eliminated the need for such pits, hence the name "pitless." This innovation ensures that the water remains free from surface contamination, and in 1969 (when I was a teenager) a new and improved pitless adaptor was patented and has spread widely.

The improved pitless adapter was designed to make the pump and system easier to access for maintenance and repairs. The two parts of the adaptor (stationary portion that is connected to the well casing and the movable portion that is connected to the flexible well pipe are connected by a  T-coupling and slip joint casting. This means that the parts can be easily pulled up free of its wedge engagement by using a “T” on a piec of metal pipe with threading to tie into the lug end dead head.

 

The water is spewing out of the pitless adaptor that holds the black flexible water pipe. The metal  "T" was threaded into the top of the pitless adaptor and used to pull the pump. 

Once you thread in the metal  "T", you jiggle it to break up any encrustation (it was in that well for 16 years) and then just pull the black flexible pipe up. (If its been in the well a long time, the pipe may look like its covered in rust or orange slime. That is iron bacteria that seems to eventually appear in all wells over time.)  The "T" is basically a handle that prevents the pipe and pump assembly from falling into the well. The red contraption on top of the well grips the pipe and locks it in place. It's called a quick clamp and don't try to pull a pump without one. You could end up trying to fish a pump lint out of the well. Here it is being used to hold the pipe and pitless adaptor away from the well to test the pump. 

close up of the quick clamp

The improved pitless adapter is for easy installing and eliminate most interior ledges or the like, which might collect water, foreign matter or set up rust within the casing. The improved design for the pitless adapter eliminated the need for a complicated slip joint with mating male and female element  and eliminated the need for an elbow joint. This design met all the emerging sanitary and code requirements cheaply. Always after you open a well you need to chloring shock the well. Pouring a cup of bleach into the well is not enough. 

closeup of the pitless adaptor

Using Seismic Monitoring to Measure Groundwater

Shujuan Mao et al., Depth-dependent seismic sensing of groundwater recovery from the atmospheric-river storms of 2023.Science387,758-763(2025).DOI:10.1126/science.adr6139

 Taka’aki Taira, Roland Bürgmann, Where does all the water go?.Science387,714-715(2025).DOI:10.1126/science.adv4928

The article below is predominately excerpted from the articles cited above.

 Mao et al. in their recent research study showed that something called seismic ambient field interferometry, which is simply the measurement of seismic vibrations , can be used to measure groundwater. Utilizing the existing seismic monitors and decades of data in the Los Angeles groundwater basin to measure the recharge of the groundwater from the 2023 atmospheric river that hit the region. They found that only about 25% of the groundwater lost since 2006 was replenished by a very wet 2023. These observations highlight the need for more continuous monitoring and provide a new way to estimate groundwater resources.

The Los Angeles area is densely populated and has long faced challenges of water supply in what is naturally a semi-arid region prone to droughts. Most of the drinking water for the region is piped in from other parts of California.

The region is also subject to earthquakes-seismic activity. In response to the risk of earthquake, the regions has a network of instruments designed and developed to study seismic hazards, and continuously records the ambient seismic field, which is the ever-present ground vibrations resulting from natural and manmade sources (trucks, construction etc.). Analysis of these passive seismic records enables the calculation of spatiotemporal changes in seismic velocity (20).

Seismic velocity changes as water saturation (moisture) of the medium changes. Thus seismic velocity changes can serve as a measure of the total water content in the subsurface. Passive sensing of seismic velocity changes (Δv/v) has recently emerged as a noninvasive, cost-effective approach for the continuous monitoring of aquifers.

Mao et al used the seismic data recorded by 68 stations in the Los Angels area to calculate the seismic velocity changes, Δv/v over the past two decades (32). And then using all the other data available for the region demonstrated that analysis of seismic noise can capture changes in the state of groundwater storage with better depth resolution than the traditional method of soil moisture content and simplified water balance. They verified the regional seismic hydrograph against the water equivalent thickness (WET) changes derived from gravity observations from the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions. NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-on (FO) have provided a global picture of water storage trends for over two decades. The GRACE missions are able to monitor monthly water storage changes within river basins and very large aquifers using variations in gravity.

Most drought indices are derived using measurements of above-surface and near-surface water, including precipitation, streamflow, surface reservoir gauge, snow cover and melt, and soil moisture. However, quantifying groundwater drought conditions remains challenging owing to the limited resolution of groundwater monitoring data despite the essential role of groundwater in the total water supply.

Over the two-decadal study period, surface-water availability (indicated by Palmer-DI) varies rapidly in response to precipitation, exhibiting severe to moderate drought during dry years, but quickly returning to wet conditions in storm years. By contrast, the Seismic drought index and GRACE drought index consistently suggest much more severe conditions in groundwater drought that have continued to accumulate over the study period. The researchers found that the storm replenishment over the past 20 years did not compensate for the substantial depletion during dry years. In the years from 2014 to 2022, the surface water recovered and reached “wet” conditions amid storms, but the deep aquifers remained persistently in moderate to extreme drought conditions.

Groundwater aquifers are extremely important sources of/ and storage for fresh water, especially in regions experiencing flash droughts that can rapidly diminish surface-water supplies. Groundwater is essential not only in California, but in much of the nation and even here in Prince William County.  Unsustainable groundwater use can have detrimental effects such as aquifer depletion, loss of storage capacity, chemical and waste contamination, saltwater intrusion, and land subsidence. Of all the things mankind knows we seem to know the least about what’s happening under the ground. This important work may help us change that.

Individual and additive effects of Vitamin D, Omega-3 and Exercise on Ageing

 Bischoff-Ferrari, H.A., Gängler, S., Wieczorek, M. et al. Individual and additive effects of vitamin D, omega-3 and exercise on DNA methylation clocks of biological aging in older adults from the DO-HEALTH trial. Nat Aging (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43587-024-00793-y

The article below is to a large extent excerpted from the research paper cited above.

A clinical trial testing  omega-3, vitamin D, and exercise has found that omega -3 alone and  in combination with vitamin D and exercise slows biological aging. The DO-HEALTH trial with 777 participants in Europe on the effect of vitamin D (2,000 IU per day) and/or omega-3 (1 g per day) and/or a home exercise program that took place over a three year period. The participants who were all between 70 and 91 years old were divided into eight groups and told to take a various combination or placebo pills, omega-3, vitamin D and 30 minutes of at home strength training  three times a week. After three years the researchers found that aging was slowed about 10% in the group taking omega-3, vitamin D and exercising.

Aging was measured by four next-generation DNA methylation (DNAm) measures of biological aging (PhenoAge, GrimAge, GrimAge2 and DunedinPACE) over 3 years. Omega-3 alone slowed the DNAm clocks PhenoAge, GrimAge2 and DunedinPACE, and all three treatments had additive benefits on PhenoAge. Overall, from baseline to year 3, standardized effects ranged from2.9–3.8 months less in aging. The trial indicates a small protective effect of omega-3 treatment on slowing biological aging over 3 years across several clocks, with an additive protective effect of omega-3, vitamin D and exercise based on PhenoAge.

My husband has been taking omega-3, 2,000 IU vitamin D, and integral strength training for twenty years. He has been proved right, once again. Though the effects may seem small, but if it carries through proportionally, that is 2 years for my husband in a time when people are falling apart rapidly. Both I and his doctor will attest to my husband wearing his age lightly.

Other studies have found that Daily omega-3 supplementation reduced the age-acceleration or pace-of-aging and inspired his regime. Previously in in  study of  2,157 participants, the same research group reported that omega-3 alone reduced the rate of infections by 13% and the rate of falls by 10% and all three interventions combined showed a significant additive benefit on reducing prefrailty by 39% and incident invasive cancer by 61% over a 3-year follow-up.

The aim of the DNAm analysis in the current study was to measure the effects of the interventions at the molecular level. Three of the four DNAm measures showed the clearest signal for omega-3, highlighting a specific and notable epigenetic response. This specificity is encouraging and supports the idea that targeted nutritional strategies can have distinct epigenetic aging effects.  Eating well and exercising will slow aging. Not exactly a revolutionary concept, but I guess I will be adding omega-3 to my program, though I am somewhat comforted by our family eating salmon at least twice a week, and often adding nuts to my steel cut oats. 

Demand Response Program for Data Centers

On Wednesday SB 1047 Electric utilities; demand response programs for certain customers, Senator Roem’s bill as summarized below passed the house. This was one of the few data center bills to survive the legislative session. Until it started to look like the bill might pass, I had not given a lot of thought to it. So, let’s talk about it.

First, the surviving bill only requires the Virginia Department of Energy to work with the State Corporation Commission (SCC) to study the need for demand response programs in Virginia. The programs do exist for residential customers.

In a demand response program, the utility company provides financial incentives for customers to reduce demand on the grid by reducing power usage or shifting to on-site generation. These demand response programs usually include critical peak pricing, variable peak pricing, real time pricing, and critical peak rebates. Demand response programs also include programs for smaller users which provide the ability for the power companies to cycle air conditioners, heat pumps and water heaters on and off during periods of peak demand to manage the load. This cannot be done for data centers.

To protect the grid in times of high demand, due to weather or disruptions data centers have not been willing to voluntarily reduce their power draw. No data centers in Virginia participates in Dominion Energy’s demand response program, in which organizations agree to reduce their power load if there is a shortage. Data center operators said that’s because they have no control over their customers’ power demands.

About two years ago in Dev/sustainability ran an article, “Why don't data centers participate in demand response?” by David Mytton where he said “The primary purpose of a data center is to provide a secure, reliable, and well connected place for IT workloads to operate efficiently. Power is a crucial aspect of this and data centers invest a lot of money into ensuring that the IT equipment always has power. This involves backup batteries, generators, and emergency fuel delivery contracts to ensure continuity.

If power to a data center could be taken offline at short notice it would either need to shut down entirely or (more likely) would have to switch to an alternative source of power. Shutting down entirely is impractical even if a single entity controlled all the equipment and systems within the data centers. Building applications to shift load is very expensive and difficult to do. And switching to backup is a risky process in itself, even when tested regularly. Long duration batteries are still too expensive and too immature in their development to make them a reliable option, although large scale batteries are being deployed.”

He went on to say: “the additional revenue of participating in demand response is therefore meaningless in comparison to the risks and costs of migrating workloads. That’s why data centers don’t (and won’t) participate in demand response. “

This week Amazon Web Services experienced a power outage at its Tanner Way facility in Manassas. The backup generators kicked on to keep the operation running. Neighbors of the campus expressed dismay at the sound of the backup generators and fumes from the diesel generators. If SB 1047 requires data centers to run on backup generators during periods of high power demand and pays the companies for noise and diesel pollution, we might end up with very unhappy residents and data center companies. The current bill specifically says:

 “that any demand response program (a) meet the minimum reliability and resource adequacy standards set by the regional transmission entity of which the utility is a member, (b) reduce customers' energy consumption during the grid's emergency events or when called upon, (c) not increase local air pollution through the use of fossil fuels generators, and (d) be cost-effective.”

There may be another way. In an article that was published in Data Center Frontier “Google Is Now Reducing Data Center Energy Use During Local Power Emergencies’ by Matt Vincent, another approach was discussed. “Google has… a system optimized to reduce the energy use of data centers when there is a local power emergency. Core functions of the system, which has the hallmarks of a universally applicable technology, include postponing low-priority workloads, and moving others to other regions that are less constrained.”

“The system as developed and piloted by Google represents a new way to reduce its data centers’ electricity consumption when there is high stress on the local power grid, by shifting some non-urgent compute tasks to other times and locations, without impacting the most commonly used Google services.”

“… Google is using this task-shifting capability for a demand response system, as a means of temporarily reducing power consumption at certain data centers to provide flexibility when it is needed, to help local grids continue operating reliably and efficiently…. Google said its demand response pilot programs are in effect in parts of Europe and Asia, and centrally in the U.S.”

“In collaboration with its local utility partners, Google affirmed that via the demand response system, it reduced its data centers’ power consumption in these regions during these periods, helping to ensure that the local grids could operate reliably in meeting the needs of local communities.”

So, there may be another way that data centers can reduce power use temporarily without shutting down operations or stepping off to back up powers. Demand response programs for data centers may have potential. Let’s see.

 

SB 1047 - Electric utilities; demand response programs for certain customers.
Patron: Sen. Roem
Status: Passed Senate
Referred to House Committee on Labor and Commerce; Passed Committee, passed House.

A BILL to amend the Code of Virginia by adding a section numbered 56-596.2:3, relating to electric utilities; demand response programs for certain customers.

SUMMARY AS PASSED:

1. § 1. That the Department of Energy, in consultation with the State Corporation Commission, shall evaluate and assess benefits, impacts, best practices, and implementation recommendations for demand response programs in the Commonwealth. Such evaluation and assessment shall consider (i) existing utilization of demand response programs and networks in the Commonwealth; (ii) current and prospective participation rates; and (iii) potential requirements that any demand response program (a) meet the minimum reliability and resource adequacy standards set by the regional transmission entity of which the utility is a member, (b) reduce customers' energy consumption during the grid's emergency events or when called upon, (c) not increase local air pollution through the use of fossil fuels generators, and (d) be cost-effective. The Department of Energy shall report such evaluation and assessment to the Senate Committee on Commerce and Labor and the House Committee on Labor and Commerce no later than November 1, 2025.

PJM has Power Plant Fast Track Plan Approved

 Last week the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved a comprehensive reform of the PJM generator interconnection process.  The change is designed to quickly and more efficiently process new service requests by changing from a first-come, first-served queue process to a first-ready, first-served approach. This is how PJM is going to address the data center power demand problem.

PJM Interconnection, a regional transmission grid operator, works behind the scenes to ensure the reliability of the power grid and to keep the lights on. PJM is our regional transmission organization that takes responsibility for grid operations, reliability, and transmission service within 13 states and the District of Columbia: Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. As part of that mission PJM forecasts the demand and makes sure the power generation is available to meet that need. PJM is the largest regional grid operator.

Under the approved plan PJM can review up to 50 new power generation proposals in addition to the 55 gigawatts of renewable and batter energy storage in the already in the que. This change is needed to address the power shortage forecasted to be 30 gigawatts by 2029. Most of this growth is in Northern Virginia and is from the growth in the number of data centers. These new fast tracked generation proposals are thought likely to include large gas generation projects.  In its January 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast Report, PJM outlined near-term resource adequacy concerns, occurring as soon as the 2029/2030 delivery year.  Gas generation is not only dispatchable, but is generally the fastest to build and PJM will address the data center power demand surge.

Net Energy Load Growth in the PJM region is projected to average 4.8% per year over the next 10-year period, and 2.9% over the next 20-years. The total PJM electricity use is forecasted to be 1,328,045 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2035, a 10-year increase of 495,264 GWh, and reaches 1,482,068 GWh in 2045, a 20-year increase of 649,287 GWh. What is driving the growth is the demand in the Dominion Region-

from PJM

As you can see from the chart above in the Dominion Zone, Commercial Demand which includes data centers) for electricity had grown to over 50% of demand by 2023. Now that demand is forecast to continue growing driving almost all the near term growth in the entire PJM. It is reported that PJM's grid includes only 5% renewables at this time and this will slow the conversion to renewables under the VCEA. 

Under the VCEA, Virginia is legally required to retire all fossil fuel baseload generation, (this excludes the existing nuclear power plants), in favor of  renewable generation which is intermittent and not dispatchable. The VCEA will require additional solar panels enough to cover an area the size of multiple Fairfax Counties. Building so called solar farms has coincided with decreasing tree canopy in Virginia. This is counterproductive to a sustainable Virginia. With the retirement of baseload generation which is dispatchable and always on-demand and can power data centers in the dark, multiples of the GW generation shut down must be combined with utility scale storage to manage power demand when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing. Such battery storage is not yet cost effective. The authors of the VCEA law forgot to control the demand for additional power when they planned for Virginia's future. 

Microplastics and PFAS in Landfills and WWTP

Prada AF, Scott JW, Green L, Hoellein TJ. Microplastics and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in landfill-wastewater treatment systems: A field study. Sci Total Environ. 2024 Dec 1;954:176751. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176751. Epub 2024 Oct 6. PMID: 39378946.

The article excerpts and summarizes the research cited above and the University of Illinois press release.

Since the 1950s plastics have been mass produced in greater and greater volumes. Global production of plastics was 1.5 million tons/year in the 1950's and was 370 million tons/year in 2019 (Kumar et al., 2021). It is estimated that 79 % of all the plastic produced has either been buried in landfills or becomes fugitive in the environment. Only 9 % of plastic has been recycled (Geyer et al., 2017). As a result, plastic pollution, including microplastics the name given for particles smaller than 5 mm) are now ubiquitous in the environment (Lim, 2021).

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a class of synthetic organic chemicals are entirely synthetic. PFAS are used extensively in aqueous film-forming foams (AFFFs), non-stick coating, paper products, textiles, and other products because they repel oil and water, resist temperature extremes, and reduce friction (Paul et al., 2009; Lindstrom et al., 2011). By design, PFAS are thermally stable, oxidatively recalcitrant, and resist microbial degradation (Kannan et al., 2001; Kissa, 2001; Parsons et al., 2008)- in other words they last almost forever. Because of their large-scale use and high stability, PFAS have spread and are widely detected at low levels in water, soil, and the atmosphere. (Ahrens et al., 2011; Hamid et al., 2018).

In the last two decades, many PFAS such as perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have been ubiquitously detected in wildlife and humans (Giesy et al., 2010; Nakayama et al., 2019; Remucal, 2019; McDonough et al., 2022). In animals, PFAS can be immunotoxins, reproductive toxins, developmental toxins, endocrine disruptors, and possible carcinogens (Lau et al., 2007; Gorrochategui et al., 2014; Grandjean and Clapp, 2015; Jian et al., 2018; Steenland and Winquist, 2021; Panieri et al., 2022).

Microplastics have also been related to health problems as they could disrupt the gut microbiome, enter organ tissues, cause local inflammatory and immune responses, and transport other toxic substances (Gruber et al., 2022).

Landfills and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) have been found to be point sources for many emerging contaminants, including microplastics and PFAS (Michielssen et al., 2016; Stahl et al., 2018; Solo-Gabriele et al., 2020; Sun et al., 2021). Landfill leachate may contain 10² microplastics per liter (Sun et al., 2021) and PFAS in concentrations of parts-per-billion (Harrad et al., 2019). WWTP effluent may contain tens of microplastics per liter (Franco et al., 2021) and PFAS in concentrations of parts-per-trillion (Gallen et al., 2018).

Landfills and WWTPs are places where plastic materials and PFAS containing material are disposed. However, those materials do not entirely stay in the landfill and WWTPs. Previous research suggests most microplastics and PFAS that enter WWTPs are retained in the biosolids (Harley-Nyang et al., 2023; Garg et al., 2023). Biosolids are commonly later used as soil amendments and thus facilitate the return of contaminants to the environment when applied to land. Biosolids have also been disposed of in landfills, and WWTPs are interconnected by the regulatory requirement that landfill leachate must be treated before it is discharged to surface waters (USEPA, 2000). Previous studies have examined these systems separately and have reported concentrations of microplastics and PFAS without further investigation of how much of the detected concentrations in WWTP influents come from landfill leachates compared to city sewage.

In the 2024 study cited above, the scientists measured microplastics and PFAS throughout the linked landfill-WWTP systems, where landfill leachate entered a WWTP (N = 4 different systems). The objectives of this study were to:

1. Quantify microplastics and 14 of the most common PFAS compounds found in landfill leachate and WWTP influent, effluent, and biosolids 
2. Perform detailed size measurements of microplastics to calculate microplastic mass, and
3. Generate mass balances of microplastics and PFAS to assess their fate.

 The scientist found that landfills retain most of the plastic waste that is dumped there, and wastewater treatment plants remove 99% of the microplastics and some of the PFAS from the wastewater and landfill leachate they take in. The analysis revealed that while landfills do a good job of retaining microplastics, their leachate contains higher levels of PFAS than anticipated.

“We were surprised how high the PFAS levels were in landfill leachate, while the microplastics were lower than expected,” Dr. Andrea Prada said.

Unfortunately, both microplastics and PFAS accumulate in the biosolids that settle to the bottom of wastewater treatment plants. These biosolids must be disposed of in other ways and have been landfilled and land applied as an agricultural amendment for decades.

Wastewater treatment plants are designed to process thousands even millions of gallons of wastewater from sanitary (and in older urban areas storm) sewer systems. That water carries a significant load of microplastics and PFAS from homes and businesses. While the concentration of PFAS in water flowing through these systems is lower than that found in landfill leachate, the massive volume of water coming in from sewers makes the overall mass of both contaminants higher.

The WWTPs in the study can take in 10,000 gallons of wastewater per minute but only about 30,000 gallons of landfill leachate per day. “The problem of microplastics and PFAS in biosolids is not easy to solve,the researchers said. Spreading PFAS and microplastics across cropland is not a good practice,” Dr. John Scott said. “But what else are we to do with it? If we landfill it, we’re just going around and around in the circle of moving it from landfill to wastewater treatment plant and back to the landfill.”

Mankind has created an unholy loop that we need to solve.

Photo by Fred Zwicky U of I

 

China’s Cities are Subsiding

Zurui Ao et al., A national-scale assessment of land subsidence in China’s major cities.Science384,301-306(2024).DOI:10.1126/science.adl4366

Robert J. Nicholls, Manoochehr Shirzaei , Earth’s sinking surface.Science384,268-269(2024).DOI:10.1126/science.ado998

The article below is excerpted from the peer reviewed research study and related invited perspective cited above.

 Subsidence is the lowering or sinking  of the Earth’s land surface through natural or manmade processes. It is a widespread and sometimes dramatic phenomenon. Such sinking is caused by a range of factors, including groundwater withdrawal, which is generally considered the most significant driver. However, at present our understanding of subsidence is not complete, though the phenomenon has been observed for more than a century.

 Earth’s surface experiences natural uplift and subsidence due to various geological processes such as glacial retreat or earthquake. As mentioned above groundwater withdrawal almost always promote subsidence. Subsidence most often occurs on coastal sedimentary plains and deltas, - inland sedimentary plains often show similar behavior. In coastal areas, subsidence also contributes to relative sea level rise.

Over the past decade, advances in satellite imaging technology have enabled scientists to measure down to millimeter-scale changes in land level over days to years. Using measurements from the satellite Sentinal-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and ground-based GPS data, Zurui Ao and colleagues examined land subsidence in 82 of China’s major cities from 2015 to 2022. InSAR uses highly precise radar pulses to measure the change in distance between the satellite and the ground surface and can detect changes in elevation down to millimeters per year.  

In the study cited above Ao et al. found that 45% of the studied urban land area is subsiding faster than 3 millimeters per year (mm/year), and as much as 16% is subsiding at a rate of 10 mm/year or more. These sinking lands contain 29% and 7% of China’s urban population, respectively. This is a concern because the impacts of subsidence in urban areas include direct damage to buildings and foundations, infrastructure, drains, and sewage systems. It also exacerbates the occurrence and effects of flooding, especially in coastal cities, compounding climate change.

Ao et al were not able to attribute the measured subsidence to specific physical causes (building weight, groundwater withdrawal, landfill etc.) because they lacked data and models of the various processes that can or do contribute to subsidence. Predicting or slowing future subsidence requires an understanding of all the causes, including human activities and climate change, and how they might change with time. 

from Ao et al

The authors speculate on what some of the causes might be based on previous work in subsidence. The first factor is the geological setting beneath the city. Closely related with the geological setting is the weight of buildings-China has had an extraordinary speed of urban construction in the past 3 decades. Ao et al found that the later the building was constructed, the faster the subsidence tends to be, and counter intuitively  they found that heavier buildings tend to subside more slowly.  The authors speculated that heavier buildings are anchored on deeper bedrock and are therefore less prone to subside. A major factor identified is groundwater loss, which decreases pore pressure and leads to subsurface compaction. This has been observed worldwide including the coastal plain of the eastern united states.

The Digital Gateway- Rezoning and Taxes

I have been tracking the bills that pertain to Data Centers in the current legislative session. Wednesday was cross over when the bills that passed the Senate go to the House and vice versa. In general the bills to control data center development have not been doing well. One bills in this group is a special interest tax code bill written to benefit the landowners of the Prince William Digital Gateway rezoning. It is carried by Senator McPike McPike, a Democrat, who represents a large portion of Prince William County but not the Digital Gateway corridor.

The PW Digital Gateway is a project in which QTS and Compass Datacenters are planning to develop over 2,100 acres of greenfield land adjacent to the Manassas National Battlefield Park for a massive industrial data center development consisting of up to 34 buildings and over 22 million square feet complete with fenced security, electric substations and backup diesel microgrid of hundreds of industrial sized backup generators and transmission lines.

Through a land acquisition entity QTS, has contracted to buy the Digital Gateway landowner's property for their development at life changing valuations of millions of dollars. Those purchases stand to drastically increase the value of the land, but the sale is contingent on two data center zoning approvals being declared final and unappealable. In the meantime, the current property owners are responsible for the property taxes and liens.

Several opponents of the  PW Digital Gateway have sued. The data center companies involved in the project, QTS and Compass Datacenters, filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit, but the PWC Circuit Court Judge Kimberly Irving declined to dismiss the case. Saying she needed more evidence about a key argument: whether Prince William County fulfilled its legal requirements to properly advertise the public hearing before the vote on the PW Digital Gateway rezoning, she scheduled an evidentiary hearing for March 6, 2025. 

Under the current state tax code the tax rate goes up and deferred taxes for the five tax years of 2018, 2019,2020,2021 and 2022 become due immediately. The recovered taxes are due to losses in agriculture and open space exemptions that were previously granted. The Digital Gateway homeowners sued the county for tax relief. However, the Circuit Court found that there is really no remedy under the current tax code. Prince William County had already  discounted the tax due by 75%  for uncertainty though the increase in taxes was eye popping- tens of thousands of dollars up to hundreds of thousands of dollars due to the county.

Enter Senator McPike who despite not representing the property owners has carried a bill through the state senate to change the state tax code to benefit these property owners and others who may be engaged in having their properties rezoned and then banking the property.

The Prince William Times reports: “So far, the county is owed at least $1.9 million in real estate taxes from Digital Gateway landowners because they are refusing to pay the full tax bills on their recently rezoned land, according to Nikki Brown, a county spokeswoman.  McPike has received thousands in donations from data center interests, including the landowners who would directly benefit from his bill. In 2024, he received more than $20,000 from data center and construction interests. Since 2021, he has received an additional $15,000 from donors involved in the Digital Gateway, according to campaign finance reports.” 

Look, I am thoroughly unhappy with the development of greenfield agriculture land into industrial uses, the lack of management and planning for the electric demand and power infrastructure (and water) needed for this uncontrolled building of data centers and the intensity of industrial development. I am angry about the way the project seemed to be rammed through, and I am furious about the appearance that data center companies bought themselves supervisors and state senators. However, I do not feel it is right to bankrupt our neighbors who were tempted with life changing wealth to sign a bad contract. (Really, they should have had better legal representation.) I do not want to destroy their lives (though they seem not to care about the rest of us). I believe the bill will pass if the performance in the Senate chamber is any indication. The scope of this change in the tax code needs to be limited to this one project and let the courts settle it. The bill and summary appear below.

UPDATE: Well, I was wrong. The bill was laid on the Table in the House Subcommittee on Friday, February 14, 2025. 

SB 1305 - Local taxes; change to zoning ordinances, etc.
Patron: McPike
Status: Passed Senate< UPDATE Houses  Counties Cities and Towns - Subcommittee #3 Voted to lay on the table.

A BILL to amend and reenact §§ 58.1-3237 and 58.1-3285 of the Code of Virginia, relating to local taxes; zoning; assessments; ordinances.

SUMMARY AS INTRODUCED:

Local taxes; zoning; assessments; injunctions; ordinances. Provides that for purposes of real estate subject to a special tax assessment for land preservation by local ordinance, a change to the zoning ordinance shall only be effective following (i) the approval of the relevant modification in the zoning classification of real estate; (ii) the exhaustion of the challenge or appeal period; and (iii) if pending, the final determination of any challenge or appeal made within such period.

The bill also provides that for purposes of subdivided or rezoned lots, the assessment or reassessment required by law shall only be effective following (a) the approval of a modification in the zoning classification of the subject real estate, an exception to zoning or classification of the subject real estate, or a reclassification of the subject real estate; (b) the exhaustion of the challenge or appeal period for such approvals; or (c) if pending, the final determination of any such challenge or appeal made within such period.

The bill also authorizes the circuit court to issue an injunction to stay the collection of taxes during the pendency of any application to the circuit court for an assessment correction upon a showing of (1) a bona fide hardship caused by such assessment and (2) a bona fide financial inability to satisfy such assessed tax obligation. Any injunction so issued shall not remain in effect later than when a final determination is made on the merits of an assessment correction application. Under current law, no suit for the purpose of restraining the assessment or collection of any local tax shall be maintained in any court of the Commonwealth, except when the party has no adequate remedy at law.

Finally, the bill provides that any zoning ordinance enacted after December 1, 2023, shall not become effective until the later of either (A) the exhaustion of the period within which a decision of the local governing body may be contested or (B) if pending, the date of final determination for all actions related to a contested decision of the local governing body.

Drought Continues to Build

The water year runs from October 1 to September 30^th. Thanks to a very wet December and January in the 2023- 2024 water year, last year was only about an inch of rainfall short of the average here in Haymarket despite and extremely dry spring and summer. This year is shaping up differently. Despite the rain this past weekend, where I got under an inch of rain in my gauge, we are still 6 inches of rain behind normal. Not only Haymarket, but the entire Potomac River watershed has had a dry winter.

from CoCoRHaS 5.5 N Haymarket, VA

Virginia generally receives about 44 inches of precipitation per year in Prince William County and over 40 inches in all of the Commonwealth and is historically considered “water rich" area. However, droughts are not uncommon, Virginia has a history of multi-year droughts. The climate forecasts for the region call for longer and more sever droughts and wetter non-drought years. The graph below shows the frequency of drought years since 2000. As you can see, so far the droughts we have seen have been very mild by historical standards. 

 

from NOAA

Below is the groundwater picture at USGS monitoring well 49V in the Northwest corner of Prince William County.  It is clear from the first USGS graph that the groundwater level in well 49V  has falling for 15 or more years. The groundwater is being used up. In the second graph you can see that for decades before that the groundwater level was fairly stable, but the monitoring was not continuous in those days (thus the little circles). The PW BOCS has recently approved the funding to begin groundwater studies and monitoring. 

from USGS

Virginia is dependent on groundwater. According to information from Virginia Tech, the Rural Household Water Quality program and the National Groundwater Association approximately 30% of Virginians are entirely dependent on groundwater for their drinking water. In Prince William County about a fifth of residents get their water directly from groundwater, including the Evergreen/Bull Run distribution system. However, the health of our watersheds and stream flow are dependent on groundwater, too.  Groundwater provides the baseflow to the rivers and streams. While groundwater is ubiquitous in Virginia it is not unlimited. There are already problems with availability, quality and sustainability of groundwater in Virginia in places such as Fauquier County, Loudoun County and the Coastal Plain. 

from ICPRB

After weeks of frigid temperatures, ice is now breaking up in the river and we are able to see the flow on USGS gages. The blue block on the graph below indicates no data due to ice. The flow (blue line) at Point of Rocks is 3,330 cubic feet per second (cfs). The median (gray line) for this time of year is 8,500 cfs. We are currently at less than 40% of median flow.

 

Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Potomac River basin shows 75% of the area is in Moderate Drought conditions and 12% is in Sever Drought (mostly the south eastern section of the watershed which includes the eastern portion of Prince William county). This is an increase in Moderate Drought conditions over last week’s map.

 

The DC metropolitan area remains in the Drought Watch declared by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) back in July. Officials are asking everyone to use water wisely during this time. The COG Drought Coordination Technical Committee will convene on March 7 to evaluate the drought declaration.

Forest Conservation Act, Data Centers and the VCA

Tree canopies play a crucial role in supporting environmental and human health. A tree canopy is the upper layer crowns of trees- branches, foliage and leaves. It shades the ground below, providing a continuous cover created by the branches and foliage of multiple trees. Tree canopies provide shade, sheltering wildlife, regulating temperatures (through shade and evapotranspiration), intercepting rainfall, and contributing to air purification by absorbing carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen through photosynthesis. In urban environments, the tree canopy enhances streetscapes aesthetically and improves the overall environmental quality by reducing heat and stormwater flow.

Healthy forests and the urban tree canopy are essential. Urban heat island (UHI) effect is widely recognized as a heat accumulation phenomenon, which is caused by urban construction and tree removal. Healthy, well-managed forests are essential to our economy and provide benefits to people and wildlife in Virginia. Forest loss is also responsible for deterioration of rivers and streams.

Yet, Virginians continue to lose trees at an alarming rate. Virginia’s tree canopy decreased 19% from 2001-2023. The loss of tree canopies diminishes our environment’s capacity to filter water pollutants and reduce air pollution and smog. Trees release fresh oxygen to breathe as the canopy layer provides shade and cools the air, which can reduce pollution levels and lower energy usage in buildings, cutting emissions from power plants. When forests are cut down, they release carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that trap heat. The new Forest Conservation Act pinpoints where critical tree canopy loss is occurring to mitigate the effects of extreme heat and pollution.

In 2023 Virginia passed the Forest Conservation Act to address the loss of trees facing Virginia’s tree canopies and forests. The law requires the Department of Forestry to conduct comprehensive assessments of the health of Virginia’s forests and explore the various factors contributing to forest loss, such as increased development, invasive species, road construction, and other infrastructure projects.

The Forest Conservation Act and the Forestland and Urban Tree Canopy Conservation Plan are vital steps towards reducing deforestation, reducing tree canopy loss, and maintaining the health of our landscapes and human communities.  Given the alarming loss of Virginia’s tree canopies, having transparent data on where the loss is happening is essential to guide targeted restoration efforts. Beyond temperature regulation, tree canopies serve as natural buffer zones, preventing polluted water from entering our rivers and streams. Tree roots stabilize soil, reduce erosion, and filter out water contaminants. 

Loosing nearly a fifth of our tree canopy in a small number of years has exacerbated extreme heat waves and the urban heat island effect. In Virginia, the top 11 regions for forest loss were responsible for almost 405 of all tree cover loss between 2001 and 2023. When I looked this up, I expected to see counties with tremendous urbanization pushes, but instead I found predominantly rural counties at the top of the list. Brunswick County had the most tree cover loss at 60.7 kha compared to an average of 9.83 kha. Brunswick was followed by Pittsylvania, Halifax, Buckingham and Sussex. It turns out that all these counties were home to millions of solar panels. We had cut down trees to build solar farms.

In 2020, the General Assembly passed the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA), which mandated a goal of 100% zero-carbon energy generation by 2050 and prescribed increasingly strict Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) for Virginia's investor-owned electric utilities.  The energy needs of the Commonwealth, its businesses and its families are changing – and growing at an unprecedented rate.

Virginia is already the data center capital of the world, and the industry is exploding along with the demand for more and more electricity 24 hours a day 7 days a week needed to run them. Data centers require power all the time even when the wind does not blow or the sun does not shine, requiring greater and greater amounts of solar panels, wind turbines and backup power supply and storage.  

Forests and solar energy are both critical to achieving a sustainable climate. However, large-scale deployment of solar farms requires vast land areas, potentially posing conflicts with other land uses. Solar farms have been built in forested regions with a direct reduction in the forest canopy. The clearance of forests and stripping of old growth woods appears to be an obvious source of land for the realization of climate mitigation through solar farm expansion and increased energy needs through data center construction. However, forests also provide climate mitigation as a nature-based solution.

Forests not only absorb approximately a third of the carbon dioxide emitted from burning fossil fuel worldwide each year by sequestering carbon as woody aboveground biomass (Liang et al., 2023), but also provide abundant ecological services such as oxygen release, air purification, soil and water conservation, and biodiversity conservation.

Given the acknowledged importance of forests in shaping policies and decisions related to climate mitigation and achieving carbon neutrality, it becomes evident that building solar farms over forests and knocking down old growth trees for data centers entails substantial environmental expenses including visual impact, land use competition, reduced species richness and increased carbon emission (Ko, 2023; Oudes and Stremke, 2021; Rehbein et al., 2020; Turney and Fthenakis, 2011). 

We need to coordinate our goals and aspirations. Both capping the number of data centers allowed in the Commonwealth and recasting of the VCEA timeline and goals are now necessary.

The Salt Problem

 Snow has come this winter. Last week when I went to the grocery store, the entire asphalt parking lot for the strip mall was white with salt residue. I was grateful as an old woman not to be in danger of slipping, but the salt…The Potomac River and Occoquan Reservoir have become saltier over the decades. This is a problem for the drinking water supply of Northern Virginia and the customers of the local water companies who are eventually going to have to pay to reduce the salt content in the water supplies.

Analyses from three different studies at multiple locations have found increasing freshwater salinization in Northern Virginia and the Occoquan Reservoir. Increasing salt is from increased direct and indirect potable reuse of wastewater, the changing land use,  increased amount of pavement and the salting of roads in the winter. Nearly all road salt is eventually washed into adjacent rivers, streams, and groundwater aquifers - road salt is considered the largest contributor to rising inland salt levels by many. 

The Occoquan reservoir is a drinking water resource for up to one million people in northern Virginia. The reservoir was the nation’s first large-scale experiment in indirect potable water reuse- the practice of deliberately introducing highly treated wastewater to surface water or groundwater for potable supply (Grant et al. 2022). Because of this the Occoquan Reservoir has been carefully and almost continually monitored and studied for decades. They have found that: “approximately 15% (4.6 × 10⁷ m³/yr) of the reservoir’s average annual inflow is highly treated wastewater from the Upper Occoquan Service Authority (UOSA), and the remaining 85% (7.1 × 10⁸ m³/yr) is baseflow and wet weather runoff from two local rivers, Bull Run and the Occoquan River, and ungaged watershed flow (Bhide et al. 2021, Grant et al. 2022).”

The long-term monitoring data reveals that salinity in the reservoir has been increasing over time and is reaching the critical point in terms of taste. “The concentration of sodium ions occasionally exceeds U.S. EPA guidance on taste and health thresholds for drinking water (EPA 2003b, Bhide et al. 2021). Researchers have found that the primary source of sodium ions to the reservoir depends on weather conditions (Bhide et al. 2021); namely, UOSA’s discharges contribute 60–80% of sodium mass during dry weather, and watershed discharges, particularly Bull Run, contribute 40–60% of sodium mass during wet weather. On average, the total daily mass load of sodium to the reservoir is 42,000 kg/day.”

Watershed discharges are assumed to come primarily from road salt.  Road salt is applied to de-ice roads in the winter for highway safety and public safety (like old ladies carrying their groceries to the car). The more paved roads we build, the more salt is used in the winter.

The ICPRB, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) and the Northern Virginia Regional Commission joined together to develop a voluntary Salt Management Strategy published in 2020 to reduce that source of salt/ chloride to the Potomac, its tributaries and the Occoquan Watershed. Though it was a first step, this policy alone is not enough to slow the increasing salinization of our source water for drinking as road construction continues at an alarming pace and business use salt and brine solutions to protect their customers and employees. As we try to encourage the adoption of the voluntary salt management strategy, we keep building roads and paving over the open wooded spaces.

Sodium and chloride the elements that make up salt and break apart in water are washed off road by rain and melting snow and flow into local waterways or seep through soils into groundwater systems with negative impacts on water quality and the environment. Salts pollute drinking water sources and are very costly to remove. The only available technology to remove salt from the source water is reverse osmosis which could cost Fairfax Water alone $1-2 billion to install and requires a significant amount of energy to run in the tens of millions of dollars a year.  

There are significant other sources of salt in our watershed, not a single source. The origin of salt is widespread in the watershed which spans four counties, two cities, and three utilities. In addition, the salt content of the UOSA seems also to be increasing. The Occoquan Reservoir watershed cannot be easily regulated because all entities involved must agree and the proposed solution for one entity may adversely affect that of another. "Addressing salinization of the Occoquan Reservoir requires working across many different water sectors, including the local drinking water utility (Fairfax Water), the wastewater reclamation facility (Upper Occoquan Service Authority), the state transportation agency (Virginia Department of Transportation), and city and county departments in six jurisdictions responsible for winter road maintenance, including the City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park, Prince William County, Fairfax County, Loudoun County, Fauquier County.”

In addition, current regulatory tools are not well suited to address freshwater salinization in urban areas. The few federal regulations for salt that do exist address acute and chronic limits for chloride intended to protect aquatic freshwater species, as well as secondary (nonmandatory) guidelines for drinking water. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) unregulated contaminant program determined salt did not present a meaningful opportunity to mitigate health risk and were therefore not regulated. Nonetheless, it is a problem that continues to grow worse as time passes.

The Occoquan Watershed Monitoring Laboratory has obtained several grants to study the potential effectiveness of utilizing Elinor Ostrom’s social-ecological systems (SESs) framework to address the problem (and other distributed contamination problems that are emerging). This framework can be used to assess the social and ecological dimensions that contribute to sustainable resource management.

What the Occoquan Watershed Laboratory researchers did was assemble stake holders from the local drinking water utility (Fairfax Water), the wastewater reclamation facility (Upper Occoquan Service Authority), the state transportation agency (Virginia Department of Transportation), and city and county departments in six jurisdictions responsible for winter road maintenance, including the City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park, Prince William County, Fairfax County, Loudoun County, Fauquier County. The stakeholders were prompted do develop frameworks or mental models for the salt problem using an iterative process that began with co-production of a concept list featuring causes of salinization, consequences of salinization, and actions that might be taken to mitigate salinization. 

The similarities and differences across these groups, and the degree that pointed to actions that could be taken to  collectively manage salinization in the region as well as other challenges to the sustainability of our communities was explored. To increase the likelihood that actions could be taken across a broad swath of stakeholders in the region, widespread understanding of the problem and the interconnection of actions and consequences needed to be communicated.

The Occoquan Watershed Laboratory has moved on to create the first version of a simple to use model to provide stakeholders and decision makers with the actionable information they need to manage cascading water quality risks in more integrated and equitable ways, both now and under various population growth and climate change scenarios. This tool could be used to decision makers to gain an understanding of the consequences of their decisions on the community as a whole. To see the overall impact of individual decisions made over time on the community and ecology.

If the model they are developing could be expanded to represent the impacts of various types of development and climate impacts, we could possibly bring together the waring groups in Prince William County and find an acceptable level and type of development that we all could accept or at least would be sustainable.

from OWML Grant et al