The Governor's Budget Proposals

Last week our Governor, Ralph Northam, presented his proposed amendments to the state’s 2018-2020 biennial budget in an address to the Joint Money Committees of the state General Assembly. You can read the entire speech at this link or the excellent review and summary in the Richmond Virginian Pilot.

The bottom line is that it appears that Virginia could have an extra $2.2 billion in revenue in the next two years. Changes to federal tax law will result in additional $1.2 billion from taxpayers forced to take the Virginia standard deduction because they took the new higher federal standard deduction and the remainder from Virginians’ higher incomes, higher sales taxes, rising business taxes- the booming economy in addition to a larger-than-expected surplus from last year. There is some question of the anticipated sales tax increase will be as large as projected; however, the fight during the next session of the General Assembly will be how to allocate it or return it to tax payers- increase the standard deduction in Virginia or earned income tax credit for the poor.

From the Virginian-Pilot I picked up this excellent summary:”Northam’s budget proposes one-time spending of:

• $180 million in water quality, clean energy and environmental protection; 
• $75 million for transportation projects; 
• $80 million to free up funds for school construction loans; 
• $46 million for expanded broadband services; 
• $40 million for a 1 percent bonus for state employees and local officials whose salaries are supported by the state; and 
• $20 million to acquire sites for economic development projects. 

The biggest jump in recurring expenses is a more than $200 million a year increase in the Medicaid budget, needed because the state underestimated the cost of the Medicaid program last year when it was approved.

Other proposed additions to recurring spending include:

• $87.6 million over the next two years for the teacher salary increase 
• $36 million to increase the number of school counselors, a recommendation of the House of Delegates’ special committee on school safety; 
• $24 million for programs to cut overcrowding at state mental hospitals; 
• $18.9 million for medical care at state prisons; 
• $15.5 million for financial aid for students at state colleges and universities; and 
• $9.7 million more for state efforts to expand access to preschools.” 

The plan Northam presented included money for Natural Resources with the following impacts for soil and water conservation districts :

• Maintains current levels of essential operational funding for the 47 Soil and Water Conservation Districts. 
• The Governor’s budget includes an additional $20 million; $7 million to finish the remaining SL-6 (stream exclusion fencing) backlog and $11 million to jump start Watershed Implementation Plane III (WIP3) to achieve the 2025 pollution reduction goals for the Chesapeake Bay, $1.5 million for CREP, and $500,000 for nonpoint source projects such as poultry liter transport and RMPs. 
• The Governor’s budget includes the mandatory deposit to the Water Quality Improvement Fund (WQIF) associated with the FY19 year-end surplus of $73,757,699. 
• The Governor also included an additional $15,031,151 from general funds. These funds would translate into $14,531,151 for Ag BMPs and technical assistance. 
• The Governor additionally designated over $8.2 million from surplus dollars for the WQIF Reserve. 

While the Governor’s proposed budget demonstrates strong support of the agricultural cost share program and Soil and Water Conservation Districts, this is only the Governor’s proposal and the beginning of budget negotiations. Like all members of the Conservation Districts Legislative Committee I will be meeting with local legislators to inform them of the importance of our work in hopes that these funds remain in the budget. You could help by voicing your support of our mission.

Additionally, per our legislative agenda passed by the membership, we are seeking patrons for budget amendments for items not included in the Governor’s budget– additional operational funding, environmental education funding, dam rehabilitation, dam monitoring or a DCR urban nutrient management specialist to support equine nutrient pollution reduction for recreational animals.

Climate Talks in Poland End on a Mixed Note

For the first two weeks in December negotiators from 196 countries and the European Union worked on a Climate Package to implement the Paris Agreement. You might be surprised that the United States was not only present, but reportedly paid a significant role in the negotiations. While the President of the United States said he intends to withdraw from the Paris Accord, that cannot be done until 2020.

The United States was present at the talks and participated in discussions to secure the deal. At the Katowice, Poland climate change conference called COP24 Katowice. The conference was intended to approve technical rules to govern how nations will put into action the soft goals they set in the Paris Agreement of 2015, when the world agreed to hold global warming to no more than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspiration to limit temperature rises to no more than 1.5 degrees C.

They made enough progress to continue moving forward; however, on a critical but complicated issue involving how countries trade and account for certain pollution they were not able to come to an agreement. Nonetheless, mankind is nowhere near on track to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases to meet the goal of keeping global temperatures within 1.5 degrees C. In order to avoid exceeding 1.5 degrees C of warming, the recent The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ,the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, says carbon pollution must be cut almost in half by 2030, less than 12 years away, and then reach "net zero" by mid-century. New research shows that global emissions of CO2 equivalents continue to rise, despite the Paris accord. Total annual greenhouse gases emissions, including from land-use change, reached a record high of 53.5 Gigatons of CO2 equivalents in 2017, an increase of 0.7 from 2016.

The problem is that under the Paris Agreement China has only agreed to stop growing their CO2 emissions by 2030 and the reduction in emissions pledged so far are nowhere near sufficient to hold temperature change to 2 degrees C according to the climate models. With China in 2016 as the largest CO2 emitter at slightly more than 26% of the total- twice the United States level, the goals of the Paris Agreement cannot be met without reductions in China and the other nations still growing their emissions and all other nations must increase the level of emissions cut pledged to even meet the 2 degree C goal, let along the aspirational goal of 1.5 degrees C.

The technical rules to govern how nations will put into action the promises or soft goals they set in the Paris Agreement; but were unable to settle on rules for the monitoring and trading of carbon credits.

from Oliver et. al 

For more information see the link below to read the entire reports.

Olivier J.G.J. et al. (2017), Trends in globalCO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions: 2017 report. PBL NetherlandsEnvironmental Assessment Agency, The Hague.

https://cop24.gov.pl/news/news-details/news/success-of-cop24-in-katowice-we-have-a-global-climate-agreement/

https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/11/1026691

Atlantic Coast Pipeline Hits a Delay in Virginia

At the recent annual meeting of the Virginia Association of Soil and Water Conservation Districts one of the speakers was Virginia State Senator John Edwards of Roanoke. Senator Edwards wanted to discuss his concerns about the Atlantic Coast pipeline, which many environmentalists and rural Virginians oppose for various reasons. Our group was concerned about stabilizing soils and preventing erosion of the slopes and sedimentation of the rivers after removal of the trees. Last Thursday the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond stopped the project (at least for the moment).

Judge Stephanie D. Thacker of West Virginia writing the opinion for a three judge panel of the 4th circuit court of appeals vacated the permit that the U.S. Forest Service had issued 14 months ago to allow construction of the pipeline. In her opinion Judge Thacker stated that the judges concluded that the Forest Service’s decisions violated the National Forest Management Act and National Environment Policy Act, and that the Forest Service lacked statutory authority pursuant to the Mineral Leasing Act to grant a pipeline right of way across the Appalachian National Scenic Trail. The court vacated the Special Use Permit and Record of Decision authorizing the Atlantic Coast Pipeline to be built through parts of the George Washington and Monongahela National Forests; an remanded the Forest Service for “further proceeding consistent with (the) opinion.”

Dominion Energy, lead developer of the $7 billion project, immediately released a statement that they would appeal the panel’s ruling to the full 4th Circuit Court. This underground natural gas transmission pipeline will transport natural gas from West Virginia to communities in Virginia and North Carolina. The 600-mile underground Atlantic Coast Pipeline will originate in West Virginia, travel through Virginia with a lateral extending to Chesapeake, VA, and then continue south into eastern North Carolina, ending in Robeson County. Two additional, shorter laterals will connect to two Dominion Energy electric generating facilities in Brunswick and Greensville Counties. The Atlantic Coast Pipeline will provide a consistent supply of natural gas to the power plants in the region as well as other uses, in addition bring natural gas to the coast for export.

The abundance of shale natural gas coming from the Marcellus is expected to keep prices for natural gas relatively low into the foreseeable future and has created a glut in natural gas that can now be exported. In Pennsylvania and Ohio power companies are building new generation gas fired power plants using the Marcelles shale natural gas to replace coal fired plants. In the past several years 9.3 gigawatts of coal generating capacity has been retired while 8.7 gigawatts have been added so far, and currently there is an addition 8.6 gigawatts of natural-gas fired generation under construction. The gas fired generation can serve as swing power, rather than base supply.

Coal plants generate about twice the CO2 per megawatt of power as gas fired generation plants. In addition, coal plants have higher particulate pollution than gas fired electrical power plants. Though electric demand is not growing nationally, the sources of power generation are changing. Though the Clean Power Plan regulation was replaced with the Affordable Clean Energy Rule, that gives states more authority to make their own plans for regulating greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants. Virginia has moved forward to reduce CO2 emissions. The U.S. overall, has seen a decline in CO2 emissions from power plants, as growth in renewable energy and abundant and relatively cheap natural gas have changed the makeup of power generation in the U.S.

A lot of people feel very passionately about the pipeline (both for and against). Our association has questions about the route selection and mitigations to negative impacts on soils and waters of the Commonwealth. Stay tuned to see how this goes.

Winter's Coming are you Ready?

Winter is upon us. There a few things that you should take care of in the waning days of fall to avoid bigger problems later on. All these problems have to do with water and cold. The first thing you should do is turn off the water to your outside hoses, there should be a valve for each in the basement next to the main water line. In older homes this is not always true. Next, unscrew the hoses. Most modern homes have frost-free sillcocks (hose bibs) installed, and if they are properly installed with a correct angel to drain the water back they should be fine all winter; however, I found out the hard way that sometimes they are simply not installed right or leaving the hose connected that winter may have caused the problem. My frost free sillcock in the back of the house had the pipe in the inside wall split a few years back. I replaced both sillcocks in the spring and now turn off the water in the winter. This should prevent problems in the future.

Next, you need to clear out your gutters. Clogged gutters can accumulate water in the gutter and around the house. In addition, a clogged gutter can contribute to creating ice dam. Coming from New England I worry about ice dams that form above the gutters at the edge of the roof. These dams or ice prevent melting snow from draining off the roof and instead may allow the water to back up behind the dam which can both leak into the home and lift the edge of the roof. Fortunately, in Northern Virginia we do not often have to worry about ice dams on the roof, usually it’s only a few days after a snow that the region warms up enough to melt the roof snow. In snow country it’s essential to insulate to keep the heated area out of the attic. The back side of my house faces south and is covered in solar panels. I’ve found that snow just slides off the solar panels. It’s more a danger to the glass door to my deck which always needs to be cleared away.

Also, you need to prevent frozen pipes. Frozen pipes can happen in your supply line or other parts of the house. If your well supply line or the water main is not frozen, you may have water in part of the house, but frozen pipes elsewhere. There are some things you can do to prevent frozen pipes. A couple of ceramic electric heat cubes, thermocouple, electric blanket and a little strategy can prevent frozen pipes.

The likely pipes to freeze are against exterior walls of the home, or are exposed to the cold, like outdoor hose bibs, and water supply pipes in unheated interior areas like basements and crawl spaces, attics, garages, or kitchen cabinets. Pipes that run against exterior walls that have little or no insulation are also subject to freezing. It is easier to prevent pipes from freezing than to unfreeze them.

In sub-zero weather wells with and without separate well houses can freeze. Keeping the temperature in a well house above freezing or your well pipe insulated can prevent this. It used to be that an inefficient 100 watt incandescent bulb gave off enough heat to do the job, but now with more efficient bulbs insulation and other sources of heat have to be used. An electric blanket can do the job. Deep wells are unlikely to freeze, it’s usually a supply line that was not buried deep enough. Abnormally cold snaps can identify many a private well line that was not buried deep enough at its most vulnerable point where it connects to the foundation.

Because of the usually mild winters here in Virginia, bathrooms are often build above garages or have pipes run through a dormer. If you have a bathroom above a garage keep a small ceramic electric heater ($40) connected to a thermocouple that turns it on when the temperature in the garage falls below 40 degrees Fahrenheit. Turn on the heating cube in the garage and check it functioning when you turn off the hoses in late fall.

When the weather is forecast to fall into the single digits or lower open the cabinet doors below sinks located on outside walls or against attic dormers, and in the most extreme weather run an extra ceramic electric heater overnight keeping that bathroom toasty while the rest of the house is at an energy saving 62-65 degrees.

Letting the water run in very cold weather can work, but can also create other problems. While running water may prevent the water supply pipes from freezing, in the coldest weather the slowly running water might cause the drain pipe to the septic system to freeze and block the flow or even burst, and it can overwhelm a septic system. If you are on city water and sewer letting water trickle can prevent frozen pipes at a price.

Now is a good time to prepare for winter. Also, you might want to change your furnace and or heat pump filters so that the systems will work their best through the cold months ahead. Remember if we have snow to dig out your heat pump and make sure all furnace vents are clear and unblocked.

WSSC Getting Ready for Winter

After a November that saw more than 200 water main breaks and leaks, the Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission (WSSC), which supplies drinking water to Montgomery and Prince George’s counties held a news conference to release details of WSSC’s #WinterReady plans. (I still don’t get why they do this with a hashtag.)

As you can see below, there is a direct connection between dropping water temperatures in the Potomac River and the increase in water main breaks. When the temperature drops the incidence of water main breaks rise. Of the 5,700 miles of water mains in their distribution system, approximately 2,900 miles are cast iron pipe, which were used from 1916 to through 1976. These pipes are prone to breaks because cast iron is a brittle material and the break rate for pipes increases after 60 years. Nearly 40% of WSSC water mains are more than 50 years old.

Water main breaks from 2015 -2018

Water main breaks can leave hundreds of people without service and can also cause serious traffic problems, making the daily commutes even more challenging. so WSSC takes winter preparations very seriously. “Winter is water main break season, and WSSC crews are ready for whatever Mother Nature throws at us,” said Carla Reid CEO of WSSC. “We keep a close eye on the temperature of the Potomac River, knowing that when the water temps drop, we see an increase in breaks. Our crews are ready to repair these breaks 24/7, and restore service to our customers as quickly as possible.”

According to the WSSC, they typically see an increase in breaks a few days after the Potomac River temperature hits a new low. The dropping water temperature can “shock” water mains, and though the pipes become accustomed to the cold water; whenever water temperatures hit a new low, there is a spike in breaks. As seen in the chart above the cold snap last January lead to an all-time-record 802 water main breaks and leaks in January 2018.

On average, WSSC crews repair more than 1,800 water main breaks and leaks each year, with the vast majority of them, approximately 1,200, occurring between November and February. WSSC has already repaired approximately 200 breaks and leaks in November this year and last winter as seen below, the total number of breaks was above average. 

2017-2018 winter water main breaks

According to WSSC Utility Services Director Damion Lampley. “When we experience a high volume of breaks, we prioritize repairs based on factors such as number of customers affected and impact to major roadways. Because some breaks may take longer to repair, we ask customers for their patience and understanding.”

At the new conference, WSSC crews demonstrated how to repair a typical break in a pipe and displayed the leak detection equipment used to pinpoint water main leaks. WSSC has teams of skilled workers and contractors on standby, along with trucks, heavy equipment, and the latest technology ready to roll for the winter to restore water flow after water main breaks.

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2016

From the “Trends in global CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions: 2017 Report” by Olivier J.G.J. et al. (1) it is reported : “In 2016, total global greenhouse gas emissions continued to increase slowly by about 0.5% (±1%), to about 49.3 gigatonnes in CO2 equivalent (Gt CO2 eq)... the 2016 emission increase was the slowest since the early 1990s, except for global recession years.” This slowdown in growth of carbon dioxide is primarily the result of changing to natural gas from coal for electrical generation and increases in wind and solar power adoption. “Most of the emissions (about 72%) consist of CO2, but methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases account for 19%, 6% and 3%, respectively.(1)

As you can see below the United States represented about 13% of global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2016; the United States’ emissions fell (-2.0%) along with the Russian Federation (-2.1%), Brazil (-6.1%), and, within the European Union, the United Kingdom (-6.4%). China’s emissions were essentially flat at (-0.3%). In contrast, the largest absolute increases were seen in India (+4.7%) and Indonesia (+6.4%) and smaller increases in Malaysia, Philippines, Turkey and Ukraine.(1)

The US now represent 13% of World GHG emissions

US fossil-fuel emission are declining

It should be clear from the data that mankind is nowhere near on track to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases to meet the goal of keeping global temperatures within 1.5 degrees C. For more information see the link below to read the entire report. 

(1)    Olivier J.G.J. et al. (2017), Trends in globalCO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions: 2017 report. PBL NetherlandsEnvironmental Assessment Agency, The Hague.

(2)    https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=natural_gas_use

How Safe is Our Water

The United States has for the most part, safe drinking water available to all. Incidents that I have written about, Flint Michigan, Charleston WV, Toledo, OH and the frequent “Boil Water Alerts” that are occurring in towns and cities highlight the challenge for our community and city water systems to provide 24/7 safe drinking water with aging infrastructure and the reluctance to prioritize spending to maintain our water infrastructure while our source water (both groundwater and surface water) continues to be impacted by all the chemicals our modern life uses.

In Flint, potentially 98,000 residents were exposed to elevated levels of lead, disinfection by-products, E. coli and Legionella bacteria. In Charleston, a leaking above ground chemical storage tank released 4-methylcyclohexanemethanol (MCHM) mixed with 5.6% propylene glycol phenyl ethers (PPH) into the Elk River, the source water for Charleston, West Virginia. In Toledo, Ohio unregulated toxins formed during algal blooms though to have been caused by agricultural runoff into Lake Erie forced the community to close the water intake for the city.

In the United States approximately 86% of the population obtains their water from public water supply. Over the past decades, the frequency of water quality violations under the Safe Drinking Water Act have increased. In a paper published early this year in the National Academy of Sciences, Maura Allaire, Haowei Wu and Upmanu Lall examined the national trends in violations of the Safe Drinking Water Act. As you can see below in the chart from their paper. 

from Allaire et al.

The authors found that “in 2015, 9% of community water systems had health-based violations of water quality standards. This affected nearly 21 million people in 2015. During the years 1984-2015 the authors found that 9–45 million people were affected in each year, representing 4–28% of U.S. population. “Drinking water contaminants pose a harm to public health. Some can cause immediate illness, such as the 16 million cases of acute gastroenteritis that occur each year at US community water systems. ..Health-based drinking water quality violations are widespread, with 9–45 million people possibly affected during each of the past 34 years...Though, relatively few community water systems (3–10%) incur health-based violations in a given year.”

From the U.S. EPA website the total number of serious violations for the past  four years has been decreasing slightly since 2014. Note though that the total number of "serious violations" from the EPA data charting tool appears higher. The number of water systems with any violation is more than 10 times higher.  

from US EPA

If you want to read more about concentration and location of water system violations the full paper cited below can be read at the link. 

National trends in water quality violations

Maura Allaire, Haowei Wu, Upmanu Lall

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Feb 2018,115 (9) 2078-2083; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1719805115