NOAA 2012 Temperature Map |
On Tuesday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climate Data Center announced that 2012 had been the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States with average temperatures 3.2°F
above the 20th century average. While global temperatures are unlikely to reach
a record for 2012 (only data through November 2012 is available) still, according
to the latest data from the National Climatic Data Center, the high average
global temperatures for November 2012 combined with record to near-record
warmth over land from April to September and warmer-than-average global ocean
temperatures contributed to the first 11 months of 2012 ranking as the eighth
warmest 11 month period on record with 1998 remaining the warmest year on record for the earth.
According to the weather scientists at NOAA the average
temperature for the contiguous United States for 2012 was 55.3°F, which was
3.2°F above the 20th century average and 1.0°F above the previous record from
1998. Every state in the contiguous United States had an above-average annual
temperature for 2012. On the national scale, 2012 started off much warmer than
average, with the fourth-warmest winter (December 2011–February 2012) on
record, but the real and immediate problem is water. The winter snow cover for the contiguous
United States last winter was the third smallest on record, and snowpack totals
across the Central and Southern Rockies were less than half of normal. The warm
spring resulted in an early start to the 2012 growing season in many places,
which increased water demand on the soil earlier than what is typical. In
combination with the lack of winter snow and lingering dryness from 2011, the
record-warm spring laid the foundation for the great drought of 2012. The average precipitation total for the contiguous U.S.
for 2012 was 26.57 inches, 2.57 inches below average, and the 15th driest year
on record for the nation.
Regulators at the Environmental Protection Agency remain
focused on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but if CO2 is the main driver of
climate change and these new temperature highs in the United States are
evidence of climate change and not just extreme weather, then it is too late and
the United States at about 16% of global carbon emissions and falling cannot
stop the growth in CO2 emissions. According to the International Energy Agency, IEA, 2011 estimates of
world CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, World CO2 emissions rose by 1 billion
metric tons in 2011, a 3.2 % increase to reach 31.6 billion metric
tons. In 2011 the top four world generators of CO2 emission from fossil
fuels were in descending order China, the United States, the European Union and
India who edged out Russia to take the number four slot. China, the
largest emitter of CO2 increased their emissions the most. China contributed
almost three quarters of the global increase, with its emissions rising by 720
million metric tons, or 9.3% to 8.46 billion metric tons of CO2, and are now
driving global CO2 emissions. It is estimate that China will emit around 10
billion metric tons of CO2 in 2013. CO2 emissions in the United States in 2011
fell by 92 million metric tons of CO2 or 1.7% to an estimated 5.32 billion metric
tons. U.S. emissions have now fallen by 430 million metric tons or
7.7% since 2006, the largest reduction of all countries or regions and no real
growth is forecast. There is no interest in reducing CO2 emissions or even stopping emissions growth in China. They are not yet a rich nation and are currently experiencing the coldest winter in 28 years. China remains focused on food and growth.
In the U.S. the EPA has used regulation to ensure that total CO2 emissions are reduced over time. In 2012 EPA proposed the first
Clean Air Act standard for carbon dioxide. Under the new rule, new power plants will have to
emit no more than 1,000 tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of energy
produced. That standard effectively changes the fuel of choice for all
future power capacity additions to natural gas, nuclear, or the renewable
category (with government subsidies). In
addition the EPA and the Department of Transportation’s National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) new millage and emission standards for
automobiles and light trucks for model year 2012 through 2025 requiring
continued improvement of about a 5% per year in average fuel economy from 2016
when they are required to have at least a 35.5 mpg fleet average for vehicles
sold in the U.S. and will have to boost car and light truck fuel economy to an
average 56.2 miles per gallon by 2025 significantly reducing the use of fuel.
The major users of energy in the United States are heating of residential and
commercial buildings (11%), industry (20%), transportation including cars,
trucks, trains, planes and ships (27.4%), and electric power generation (40%). Passenger
cars, light trucks and motorcycles represent 17% of the national greenhouse gas
emissions. With the CO2 standard and fuel economy standards the U.S is on track
to reduce their CO2 emission in the coming decades.
The climate of the earth is constantly changing on a
geological time scale, but the geological record hints that sudden shifts can
happen. The controversy over both the science and policy relating to climate
change is far from over, but policy mandates to have the United States adopt
constraints on fossil fuel energy consumption will have little impact on the
global level of CO2. The earth’s atmosphere is interconnected and worldwide CO2
emissions will continue to grow powered by China and India in the short
run. We need now to appropriately respond to the continuing drought.
Drought conditions November 2012 NOAA |
The Renewable Fuel Standard, RFS, creates a regulatory
mandated demand for corn in the United States. In 2012 the RFS mandated ethanol
consumed 5.05 billion bushels of corn almost 50% of the corn crop. The USDA has
forecast total corn production for 2012 at 10.7 billion bushels, down 13% from
2011. The lowest U.S. production of corn since 1995. Much of the Midwest
remains in drought conditions, and according to the most recent USDA and NOAA reports drought could impact the corn crop next year, too. To fulfill the RFS mandate we
are using up our water resources (using the Ogallala Aquifer) and we might be forced to buy corn,
taking food from the mouths of poorer nations. Yes, we can buy more corn if
need be. The United States is still a rich enough country and we will eat meat
and the long list of food made from corn products and make lots of ethanol to
dilute gasoline, but the cost is the United States is exporting hunger to fulfill the RFS.
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