Ethiopia’s Nile Dam-Tensions Mount with Egypt

from World Bank

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is located in the headwaters of the Blue Nile the major tributary to the Nile River. The hydroelectric dam is planned to produce 6,400 megawatts of electricity and will be completed next year. Once completed the dam will be Africa's largest hydroelectric power plant and will boost the economy and influence of Ethiopia. However, to work, the 74 billion cubic meter reservoir behind the dam must be filled.

The Blue Nile originates in Ethiopia and flows into Sudan, where it joins with the White Nile, whose source is Lake Victoria in east Africa. Downstream of the Dam is Egypt, a desert nation that derives 90% of their water supply from the Nile River. Few nations rely so completely on a single river.

Current plans call for Ethiopia to fill the reservoir behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam over three years. Justifiably, Egypt fears that filling the reservoir will reduce its water supply, destroying parts of its farmland and squeezing its population of 96 million people, who already face water shortages.

One study by a Cairo University agriculture professor estimated Egypt would lose over half of its farmland if the reservoir is filled in three years. A slower, six-year fill would cost Egypt 17% of its cultivated land, the study claimed. Once the fill is completed, the Nile flow would in theory return to normal, but control of the Nile flow would belong to Ethiopia. They claim that the impact from filling the reservoir will be far smaller. Some believe Egypt could suffer no damage at all if both countries work together adjusting the rate of filling the reservoir to ensure that Egypt's own reservoir, Lake Nasser, stays full enough to meet its needs during the fill. However, no one has a clear idea what impact Ethiopia's dam will actually have and this is about power and Addis Ababa’s ambitions for himself and his nation.

The Nile River moves through Burundi, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Each country views the Nile as at least partly their own. According to treaties from 1929 and 1959 put in place by the British, the northern states of Egypt and Sudan were allocated 75% and 25% of the Nile’s water respectively, with none allocated to the source nations. This was done because Egypt and Sudan are arid countries with almost no other access to fresh water other than the Nile.

Egypt receives the lion's share of Nile waters: more than 55 billion of the around 88 billion cubic meters of water that flow down the river each year. Still, Egypt has one of the lowest per capita shares of water in the world, some 660 cubic meters a person. Egypt's population was 19 million in 1947 and has reportedly reached 96 million today. In its 2013 report, titled “Water Resources and Means to Rationalise their Use,” Egypt revealed that each Egyptian's annual share of water declined from a water surplus of 2,526 cubic meters in 1947 to a sufficient level of 1,972 cubic meters in 1970 (when their population was around 35 million), and then water poverty with 663 cubic meters in 2013. The flow of the Nile has not increased and it is the limiting factor in the growth of Egyptian population and their economy.

Official forecasts are that Egypt will double its population in 50 years. There is simply not enough water and control of the water may now belong to Ethiopia. In a 2015 Declaration of Principles agreement, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan agreed to contract an independent study of the dam's impact and abide by it for filling the reservoir and operating the dam. However, the deadline to complete the study has passed, and little progress has been made.

Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia re in negations as Egypt faces not only the limitations on the flow of the Nile, but also the shifting of power now that Ethiopia will to a large extent control the flow of the Nile. The “Quartz Africa” and “The New Arab” report that regional tensions are growing. Egypt believes al-Bashir is on Ethiopia’s side and has proposed excluding Sudan from the negotiations. Sudan’s shift is reported due in part because of what it stands to gain including electricity supply and flooding prevention during rainy seasons. The Egyptian government has publicly ruled out military action after suggesting it in 2013, but in recent months officials have escalated their rhetoric.

For Ethiopia, the $5 billion dam is the realization of a dream. Ethiopia's infrastructure was among the least developed in the world, leaving most of its 95 million people without access to electricity. The hydroelectric dam will have the capacity to generate over 6,400 Megawatts, a massive boost to the current production of 4,000 Megawatts. The electric power and water will shift the geopolitical forces of the region.