Last summer the Crowther Lab of ETH Zurich (Switzerland) published a study in the journal Science that showed (via computer model) that we can mitigate climate change by restoring forested land across the globe. We could save the planet by planting lots and lots of trees, a trillion of them.
In their official description of the study on the University’s web site they say: “The researchers calculated that under the current climate conditions, Earth’s land could support 4.4 billion hectares of continuous tree cover. That is 1.6 billion more than the currently existing 2.8 billion hectares... Once mature, these new forests could store 205 billion tonnes of carbon: about two thirds of the 300 billion tonnes of carbon that has been released into the atmosphere as a result of human activity since the Industrial Revolution.”
Since that time others have taken issue with the study- they felt it exaggerated both the amount of land available for reforestation and the amount of carbon that could be stored. More research is underway, but no one has challenged the fact that reforestation of the planet could have a huge impact on our future climate.
In the Paris Agreement of 2015 countries of the world agreed to hold global warming to no more than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspiration to limit temperature rises to no more than 1.5 degrees C. At the time 197 countries signed the initial agreement including the U.S. Later only 187 nations ratified the agreement. The U.S. never ratified, it participation was only under Executive Branch signature of President Obama’s administration. President Trump notified his intent to withdraw, also without a ratification vote of the Senate.
Nonetheless, mankind is nowhere near on track to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases to meet the goal of keeping global temperatures within 1.5 degrees C or even 2 degrees C. In order to avoid exceeding 1.5 degrees C of warming, the recent The 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ,the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, says carbon pollution must be cut almost in half by 2030, less than 10 years away, and then reach "net zero" by 2050.
Thus, we come to trees. Negative emissions are an essential element of reaching net zero emission by 2050 (or for the planet to survive wherever we are when climate disasters force mankind to make changes). For all the talk of carbon capture the only proven technology is the one from nature-trees. So let’s look at increasing the tree cover to fight climate change.
In the Chesapeake Bay Watershed 55% of the land area is Forest Covered, but that is changing. According to Julie Mawhorter at the U.S. Forest Service the Chesapeake Bay Watershed is losing 100 acres/day of Forest. The Bay Restoration Plan has Forestry Goals: These include restoring and expanding the Riparian Forest Buffers, and conserving what forested area are left. In our own Prince William County we need to look at expanding the forested areas while there are some rural lands still available to reforest and preserve.
Prince William County could consider purchasing the development rights of lots larger than 20 acres in the Rural Crescent and place an easement for forest on the land. This would use public money to purchase the development rights in these areas, but would preserve the viewsheds and the current feel of the rural area and public land would be increased. This would be a onetime expenditure to purchase land. It would not increase the number of houses, students in our schools or the number of transportation daily trips in the coming years. There would be no additional need for County services, schools or police and fire or infrastructure like roads, waste water treatment plants, sewer pipes, water infrastructure. No additional need for teachers and schools and the capital and carrying costs associated with increased population. There would be no impact on sustainability and availability of groundwater and our surface water resources.
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