Reducing PWC Carbon Footprint

 

On November 17, 2020, the Prince William County Board of Supervisors adopted Climate Mitigation and Resiliency goals and authorized the creation of a Sustainability Commission.  The Commission is charged with advising on potential enhancements to the Community Energy and Sustainability Master Plan (CESMP), which will provide the map for how the county will reach its climate goals that includes Prince William County achieving 50% of 2005 CO2 emissions by 2030 and net-zero by 2050; but also include plans for adaption to climate change.

At the close of the COP-27 meeting the UN Secretary-General, Mr. Guterres, decried greenwashing – misleading the public to believe that a company or entity is doing more to protect the environment than it is.  He called for bring integrity to net-zero commitments by industry, financial institutions, cities and regions and to support a global, equitable transition to a sustainable future.

“Using bogus ‘net-zero’ pledges to cover up massive fossil fuel expansion is reprehensible. It is rank deception. This toxic cover-up could push our world over the climate cliff. The sham must end.” Mr. Guterres said that net-zero pledges should be accompanied by a plan for how the transition is being made. PW County is engaged in developing such a plan. The Sustainability Commission will provide the feed back on the plan for Prince William County.

 

Early in 2020, the General Assembly passed the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA), which mandated a goal of 100% zero-carbon energy generation by 2050. This was to provide the major tool in achieving the County goals. Since 2010 Virginia electricity use has grown by about 40% while carbon intensity has decreased by almost 30%. This has been due to changing from coal to natural gas generation for a significant portion of electric power generation. 

Under the VCEA, Virginia is legally required to retire all baseload generation, except for the existing nuclear power plants, in favor of intermittent renewable generation. The VCEA as of 2020 would require additional solar panels enough to cover an area the size of Fairfax County (according to Dominion); and certainly requires technological advancement in power generation and storage. This is not realistic- it is the equivalent of a plan with a line that says "insert miracle here.".

•  In 2020, natural gas accounted for 61% of Virginia's utility-scale electricity net generation, nuclear supplied 29%, renewables, mostly biomass, provided 6%, and coal fueled less than 4%.
• Virginia’s Bath County Pumped Storage Station, with a net generating capacity of 3,003 megawatts, is the largest hydroelectric pumped storage facility in the world.
• 21% of the power used in Virginia was generated in other PJM locations (West Virginia and Pennsylvania)

 The VCEA is facing challenges that may prevent it from achieving its goals in the stated time frame. According to VA Energy VCEA requires the Commonwealth to retire its natural gas power plants by 2045 (Dominion) and 2050 (Appalachian Power). These facilities currently comprise 67% of the current baseload generation as well as 100% of the power plants that meet peak demand. This switch mandated by VCEA has not been successfully accomplished anywhere in the world, yet. Advances in technology were always necessary to achieve the goals and those advances have not come fast enough.

According to Virginia Energy, during the foreseeable future, intermittent energy generation cannot meet all of Virginia's energy needs. At this time, solar and wind generation are affordable in many locations, but battery storage systems required to turn these generation sources into dispatchable energy are cost prohibitive. At the same time the extraordinary growth in electricity demand by the exploding number of data centers under development in Virginia requires that the Commonwealth increase the effective base load to meet what is forecast to be a 30% increase in electricity usage by 2040 (estimated by UVA Cooper Center).

To meet Virginians’ round-the-clock energy needs, full compliance with VCEA will require a reliance on other PJM states to produce the baseload generation capacity for the Commonwealth. However, that is not possible. The PJM has required that Dominion provide more generation into the system to meet the growing demand from data centers now and not wait for future technology.

It appears that electrifying the transportation sector which faces hurdles in accessibility for all, and the heating systems county wide will not meet the stated goals and timing of the resolution with the growth in power demand and land use changes approved in CPAs and the updated Comprehensive plan. However, there is hope that Prince William will be able to “bend the curve” if smart decision are made. The Community Energy and Sustainability Master Plan is being developed and includes adapting the county to impacts from climate changes.  You will have an opportunity to attend Townhalls meetings this spring to voice your concerns, ideas and provide feedback in the development of the Community Energy and Sustainability Master Plan. Please participate in the process and help us build a sustainable future for our children.