Drought Has a Toe Hold in the DMV

So far it has been a dry year for our area in Prince William County (and all of Northern Virginia). Calendar year to date my monitoring station is experiencing a rain deficit of 4.8 inches as of May 31st and June has been extraordinarily dry.  We have had less than an inch of rain in a month where the historical average is 4.4 inches. As you can see below parts of Northern Virginia is in a moderate drought.

from US Drought Monitor 6-23

The drought is not just in Prince William County. The U.S. Drought Monitor map shows the existence of abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions with short- and long-term effects in the Potomac River basin. The abnormal dryness (D0) has expanded across Delaware, Maryland, and West Virginia, while moderate drought (D1) has intensified in Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania due to a significant lack of rainfall over the past 90 days.

Last week, the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) began daily monitoring of the flow of the Potomac River at Point of Rocks. Their operating agreement requires them to begin daily monitoring of flow in the Potomac River when the U.S. Geological Survey gage at Little Falls dam drops below the total metropolitan area daily withdrawals plus the 100 million gallons per day flow-by, or when forecasts indicate that there is a significant chance that releases from Jennings Randolph and/or Little Seneca reservoirs will be needed within the next ten days.

Last week this monitoring was triggered. The ICPRB Analysis of historical records at Point of Rocks indicates that since1985, there have been 16 years when flow of the Potomac River hit this  low level, and among them, only 8 of those years had 5 or more days with a flow below the 2,000 cfs threshold for drought monitoring. Though what is hopefully the beginning of the rains was enough to increase flow above that point after six days. Let’s hope that the rain forecast over the next few days arrives in full. The rains will also serve to cleanse the wildfire particulates from the air and restore our air quality at least for a while.

from ICPRB

The NOAA is promising significant rain this week- a couple of inches forecast to fall in Prince William County. 

Writing about drought is my way to nudge the rain. Lets hope it works. I have 5 new trees I have to keep watered.  Otherwise the region will be looking to its reservoirs to meet the shortfall and I will be filling treegator bags until December.