Virginia's Chesapeake Bay Progress

The Chesapeake Bay was the first estuary in the nation targeted for restoration and protection by Congress. That was over a half a century ago.  After decades of talk and not much progress, in 2010 the EPA set a limit for release of nutrients and sediment into the Chesapeake Bay watershed that was then partitioned to the states based on the Chesapeake Bay computer model and monitoring data.

All six Bay watershed states and the District of Columbia were required to submit plans spelling out the measures each would take by 2025 to achieve the needed pollution reductions. Then each year, EPA would evaluate the progress in implementing mitigation measures or practices. The model then would be used to estimate the amount of nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment that would make it to the Bay under average conditions.

Only the District of Columbia and West Virginia have so far met their 2025 goals. The rest of us continue to struggle to implement all the measures outlined in our plans. The goal is to have all the practices in place by 2025 to meet the Chesapeake Bay Clean Water Blueprint restoration goals as predicted by the computer model forecasts.

The EPA just released their evaluation of Virginia's progress toward attaining its portion of the 2025 Goal. This evaluation includes an assessment of progress toward attaining nutrient and sediment goals at the state and state-basin level and progress toward meeting sector-specific commitments for the 2022-2023 milestone period.

According to the data provided by the Commonwealth, Virginia did not achieve its statewide 2023 targets for nitrogen or phosphorus. These targets included adjustments for climate change that were recently added to the goal. Virginia only achieved its statewide 2023 target for sediment.

At the major river-basin scale, Virginia achieved its 2023 nitrogen targets for the James basin but did not achieve its 2023 targets for nitrogen in the other major basins (Potomac, Rappahannock, York, and Eastern Shore). Virginia did not achieve its 2023 phosphorus targets for any major basin. Virginia achieved its 2023 sediment targets for all major river basins. Below are the comments from EPA.

Some notable strengths identified by EPA include:

• Virginia appropriated record funding for agricultural BMPs for fiscal year (FY) 2023-2024 and expanded funding to support agricultural programmatic and technical assistance capacity.
• Appropriated funding in FY 2024-2026 budget sufficient to fully satisfy the state’s portion of the Agricultural Needs Assessment.
• Completed regulatory actions and reissued the Phase II Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System (MS4) general permit effective November 1, 2023.
• Completed amendments to watershed general permit to incorporate Enhanced Nutrient Removal Certainty Program Wasteload Allocations (WLA) and Chlorophyll-a based WLAs.
• Secured significant new funding to support wetlands acquisition, enhancement, and restoration.

EPA expects Virginia to address in the final 2024-2025 milestone period and beyond include:

• Continue to accelerate BMP implementation in the agricultural sector, especially since several BMP implementation targets were not met in the 2022-2023 milestone period.
• Continue to increase opportunities to accelerate implementation to target nonpoint sources of pollution in the urban/suburban stormwater sector and include updates on specific programmatic efforts and associated BMP implementation in progress reporting.

These evaluations always sound so dismal to me, but when you hear EPA representatives talk about the achievements in the Chesapeake Bay they always sound so upbeat. The bottom line I think is that EPA can measure and forecast improvement in the health of the Chesapeake Bay, while I just look out upon the Bay and can't really perceive the improvement.  We are making progress, though it is so hard to see from here.

Don’t worry, the Chesapeake Bay Program like all government programs will never die. The commissions has already prepared recommendations that outline the next steps for the Watershed Agreement beyond 2025, including integrating new science and restoration strategies, and plan for the future of the Chesapeake Bay partnership .A draft report including these recommendations was completed on July 1, 2024 the public feedback period closes tomorrow.