COP 29 Ends

As I write this the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Azerbaijan has finally banged the closing gavel after running into overtime.  The annual two week United Nations climate talks were scheduled to end at 6 pm on Friday, but without an agreement in sight negotiations continued on until Sunday.

For 2 weeks, delegates from nations across the globe meet to discuss the next steps in the ongoing fight against climate change and pretend that it is still possible to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius. It’s not. Scientists think the earth may have already surpassed that briefly this year.  We are sitting on a melting ice cube. People (not only in the United States) are unwilling to do what it will take to solve the problem. So the crisis will grow. There will be drought, famine, flooding, death and wars. I believe mankind will survive, but it will not be pretty or nice.

The COP 29 meeting was saved from complete failure by a last minute agreement. Under the deal, “wealthy nations” pledged to fund $300 billion per year to be granted to the “developing nations”  by 2035, up from a current target of $100 billion. While a broader target of $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 was adopted, only $300 billion  annually was designated for grants and low-interest loans from developed nations to aid the developing world in transitioning to low-carbon economies and preparing for climate change effects. The rest will be loans.

In 1990’s when the Kyoto Treaty was signed by the European Union, Japan and Canada, the developed world including the United States represented 72% of global CO2 emissions from fuel, now they represent less than half of that and falling. Back then the United Nations defined the “developed nations”as the European Union, Australia, the United States, Britain, Japan, Norway, Canada, New Zealand and Switzerland. Notice that China now the largest generator of carbon emissions and India are not on that list.

from Carbon Brief

China’s historical emissions within its borders have now caused more global warming than the 27 member states of the EU combined, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief. That analysis shows that 94% of the global carbon budget, the total amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted and still stay within 1.5 degrees C has now been used up. Cumulative emissions since 1850 have reached 2,607 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2). China’s historical emissions reached 312 GtCO2 in 2023, overtaking the EU’s 303 GtCO2. Their projections show that China is still way behind the 532 GtCO2 emitted by the US, however, according to the analysis they will surpass the United States mid-century.

The financing negotiations were complicated by the fact that the Paris Agreement though often referred to as a treaty is not one, at least not in the United States. None of the resolutions are binding. The U.S. Constitution requires that two-thirds of voting Senators agree for a treaty to be ratified. This was never done. The U.S. joined the Paris Accord under executive action by the Obama administration. President Obama did not even get the billion dollars he pledged approved in his budget. However, the Obama administration managed to spend $5.7 billion annually on international climate finance without specific budget authorization because most international assistance can count towards the goal. President Biden pledged to increase that to $11.4 billion a year by 2024.He fell far short of that number. Congress only approved $1 billion all other monies were "off the books" - the Biden administration specialty. 

Now with the election of Donald J. Trump there is unlikely to be additional funding. As  still the world’s largest economy, the United States is essential to meeting climate finance pledges. Yet we are running an unsustainable deficit. Mr. Trump is widely expected to renege on any non-binding commitments negotiated in Azerbaijan by the Biden administration and has said he will once more withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. None of these commitments have ever been binding. This is a matter that should be determined by congress.

We have a climate problem because of carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. The reason we don’t stop using fossil fuels and use alternatives is because they cost more. They have a higher economic cost for land, transmission, power storage, and solar panels and wind turbines. When you have a higher economic cost you have fewer resources for other things (like health care, transfer payments, FEMA aid, highways, water systems, housing, cars, vacations- you get the idea) and lower you standard of living. It also means that things you make cost more and so you become uncompetitive against others using carbon fuel. It is one of the reasons China is flooding the world with low-cost products. They are made using coal. President-elect Trump should sell his proposed tariff on China as what it truly is- a tax on carbon emissions.