Somethings Got to Give

Just after Christmas the Energy Information Administration (EIA) release an analysis that showed that: “In 2023, Virginia emerged as the top net electricity recipient among all U.S. states. … While 25 states produce more electricity than they consume, the excess is transmitted to other states. Virginia’s utilities received a net 50.1 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity from other states, making up 36% of its total electricity supply.”

For comparison California has 0ver 39 million residents and Virginia has 8.7 million residents. California generates net 19,279 thousand  MWh of electricity while Virginia generates net 9,078 thousand MWh.

 

For decades, utilities in California and Virginia have consumed more electricity than they produce. In 2023, power companies in California lost their long-held position to those in Virginia as receiving the most electricity from other states. Electricity generation has increased in both states, but interstate receipts have generally increased in Virginia over the past five years while they have decreased in California. Between 2019 and 2023, electricity receipts by Virginia utilities increased by 61% (19.0 million MWh) due primarily to the surging commercial-sector demand from data centers. 

Pennsylvania led the nation in exporting electricity, moving 83.4 million MWh across state borders, accounting for 26% of its total generation.” Pennsylvania and West Virginia have essentially been supplying the explosive growth in data center growth in the PJM region.

 As you can see in the charts below from the appendix. of the IRP carbon intensity had been falling in for Virginia customers of Dominion, The projected carbon intensity was not included in the diagram. However,  sooner or later, you run out of other people’s power to purchase and there is a projected sudden change in the generation mix for 2024. Buried in the Dominion Energy Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) released last fall is the fact that the carbon intensity of the Virginia electric grid was projected to have increased 37% from 2023 to 2024. Though Dominion’s IRP attributes the increase in carbon intensity to the increase in use of natural gas, that is not completely true. The generation mix changed from 2023 to 2024 to halve the purchased power and make up the difference using natural gas and coal generation.