Drought has left Virginia

Last Thursday, the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) and the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments’ (COG) Drought Coordination Committee lifted the Drought Watch declaration that had been in place since July 2024

“The recommendation of ICPRB was based on several factors,” explains Michael Nardolilli, the executive director of ICPRB, “The U.S. Drought Monitor map shows zero signs of drought in the Potomac River watershed. The recent rains have nearly erased the basin’s cumulative precipitation deficits. While spring rains are generally ineffective for groundwater recharge, given the amount of rain the basin has received over the past couple months, staff at ICPRB are optimistic that there will be continued improvement in groundwater levels.”

 As of the end of last week, there were no areas of drought in Virginia, the heavy rains in May and the wet June managed to wipe out the drought. Though water year to date (October 1- June 20^th ) my rain station monitor was still just over 5 inches of rain below average. We’ll see how the rest of the summer plays out, but for the moment we are good.  Due to recent rains across the entire Commonwealth, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) has lifted drought advisories for 12 counties in Virginia, and no counties remain under a drought watch or warning advisory. The last time the Commonwealth was not under any drought advisory was June 20, 2024.

from DEQ

The past two weeks have brought plentiful rainfall over the entirety of the Commonwealth, further improving soil moisture and surface water flows within all major watersheds. Improvements in groundwater levels have also been observed throughout the State but below normal levels noted in only a few wells in the Eastern Shore, Northern Virginia, Roanoke and Shenandoah Regions. We need much more rainfall to bring groundwater levels to normal levels. All major water supply reservoirs are at normal levels.

A wet summer would be a good thing. NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. So the outlook is for water. Hopefully enough and not too much. Unfortunately, rain never falls in gentle steady averages.

The NOAA is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). 

from NOAA