Planning for Flooding

 

Land use changes and a changing climate combine to increase flooding and its dangers. After the recent devastating floods in Texas I had dreams about the old air raid sirens that used to be tested at midday in my childhood. In my dream I heard the sirens and just did not know if they were flash flood, tornado, or air raids. I woke up wondering if I should go to the cellar or high ground. Even with all our technology, flash flooding and tornados are extremely difficult to predict and when warning are issued they generally cover a very large area.

This month in Texas there were repeated flash flooding warnings in Kerr County as rain moved in and the river surged, but those warnings did not reach the campers, nor people without cell phones, nor people asleep or who had silenced or opted out of the repeated warnings they received. People died. Last January in Los Angels fire evacuation warnings in the Altadena neighborhood were not sent in time or missent. People died. In Lahaina, Maui two years ago the sirens never sounded when the wildfires approached. People died.

Despite all the advances: text messages sent, social media and mobile apps, broadcast TV and radio messages, NOAA weather radio alerts, outdoor sirens-warning alerts are not effectively reaching people, and if they do we all call 911 instead of having a prepared action plan. Unless we solve this problem, more people will die as the weather patterns responds to changing climate.

The Northern Virginia Regional Commission (NVRC) has been awarded $90,000 from the Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation to implement a regional flood awareness and outreach campaign. This effort will deliver clear, consistent messaging across Northern Virginia to help residents, communities, and local governments better understand flood risks and support climate-resilient planning. So that when the disaster comes we- our communities and our selves will have a plan and know what to do. The campaign will use social marketing services to create tailored materials and advertisements that promote public safety and reduce vulnerability to flood damage, based on the framework developed in coordination with local government representatives.

NVRC also received $15,468 to complete additional analysis for an ongoing project developing resilient design guidelines, including a historical rainfall trend analysis and updated climate data based on the latest global climate models. Though, recent work casts doubts on the value of global climate models on the local scale. 

Nonetheless, both efforts aim to build a shared understanding of flood risks across the region, strengthen climate resilience, and enhance public safety by improving the effectiveness of flood hazard education and outreach. As individuals, we need to minimize our risks, have a plan of action for an emergency and keep and eye on the weather.