Drought has Returned to Virginia

 The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) monitors and evaluates hydrologic and water supply conditions and evaluates drought conditions. The Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force is responsible for making recommendations for Drought Stage declarations. In an unusual move due to return of dry conditions, the Task Force met in mid September to discuss the status of drought monitoring and hydrologic conditions in the Commonwealth.

The most recent DMTF report can be found at this link.  DEQ in coordination with the Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force, has established drought watch advisories for 28 counties.

A drought watch advisory is intended to help Virginians prepare for a potential drought and includes the following areas:

• Northern Virginia: Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, and Prince William counties
• Roanoke River: Bedford, Campbell, Charlotte, Franklin, Patrick, Halifax, Henry, Mecklenburg, Pittsylvania, and Roanoke counties
• Upper James: Alleghany, Bath, Craig, Botetourt, Highland, and Rockbridge counties
• Shenandoah: Augusta, Clarke, Frederick, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah, and Warren counties

from DEQ

Recent lack of precipitation has resulted in rapid declines in streamflow and groundwater levels, ranging from the northern portion of the Commonwealth, south along the Blue Ridge, to the south-central region of the state. The forecast for the next two weeks suggests limited precipitation in the western part of the Commonwealth (0.10 to 0.50”) with a better chance of substantial precipitation east of the Blue Ridge (1.0 to 3.0”). Above normal temperatures are predicted over all the Commonwealth for the next two weeks. Storage at major water supply reservoirs remains within normal ranges.

Groundwater monitoring wells show a general statewide decline. Below and much below normal percentile values were measured in the Eastern Shore, New River, Northern Virginia, Shenandoah, and Roanoke regions. Several monitoring wells in Northern Virginia recorded sharp declines, with levels remaining or dropping well below the 25th percentile of historical records. One of the two groundwater indicator wells in York County has dropped to near record low levels, measuring values below the 5th percentile in the recent seven-day period. Likewise, groundwater indicator wells in the Northern Virginia, Shenandoah, and York James regions measured below the 5th percentile during the recent seven-day period.

from USGS groundwater monitoring well 49V at Loudoun -Prince William County line

DEQ is working with local governments, public water works, and water users in the affected areas to ensure that conservation and drought response plans and ordinances are followed. Localities and residents that are supplied water from the Potomac River should consult the Metropolitan Washington Water Supply and Drought Awareness Response Plan for specific triggers and actions to be taken. All Virginians are encouraged to protect water supplies by minimizing water use, monitoring drought conditions, and detecting and repairing leaks.

Groundwater in Loudoun is Unsustainable

The Agriculture Work Group of the Loudoun County Preservation and Conservation Coalition has just issued their groundwater report. The Agriculture Work Group was alarmed not only at the drought conditions that have plagued the small well systems and resulted in water restrictions the past few summers, but also in the falling water levels in most areas. They created the report to heighten awareness of the need for proactive groundwater planning. The report demonstrates the need for County officials (Board of Supervisors, town mayors and others) to act now to prevent a water crisis.

The full report is available at this link. I do recommend reading the full report if you have the time. It is full of information on groundwater.  I have excerpted from the report, the Loudoun County Preservation and Conservation Coalition overview and the news release below:

The report includes a review of existing data for groundwater in Loudoun County, in conjunction with groundwater science to evaluate the potential threat to this essential resource. Historical data from the 1980s along with data collected since 2000 (when Loudoun installed some of its own monitoring wells) point to a strong conclusion that groundwater resources in much of western Loudoun are being withdrawn at an unsustainable rate- faster than they can be replenished by natural rain and snowfall. 

The reason for the water table decline appears to be the result of a combination of climate change, periodic and/or extended drought, and land development including residential homes in most areas.

A two-year extended drought persisted from 2023 through June 2025 which is a reminder of the impact of previous historically severe droughts of the 1930s and the more recent droughts in 2001 and 2002. The difference in 2025, however, is that weather patterns have changed to hotter and humid summers with continued extended drought conditions persisting for months at a time, so the impact of the drought to drinking water appears to be more severe.

The drinking water supply in Loudoun County is dominated in eastern Loudoun by surface water as supplied by Loudoun Water and groundwater in western Loudoun. Both Loudoun Water and the Town of Leesburg currently draw their water from the Potomac River. The Goose Creek Reservoir is idle and serves as a backup supply of water. In western Loudoun, groundwater is the dominant source of drinking water and within the towns and community areas, wells provide most of the water. Purcellville has a small reservoir (J.T. Hirst) which serves about one-half of the Town’s residents.

Today, agriculture remains a vital industry, supporting commercial livestock production, horticulture, farmers markets, and agritourism. The county’s agricultural sector not only preserves its rural heritage, but also drives economic sustainability through local farming initiatives, soil conservation efforts, and agribusiness development. As of June 2025, farmers in Loudoun County experienced the socioeconomic impact of the new normal of extended drought conditions in 2023-2024 and into mid-June of 2025

The Agriculture Work Group found clear evidence that Loudoun’s groundwater resources are being appreciably depleted. This is a situation that will only continue to become worse. The water table in the County has declined significantly over the past few decades and there are numerous reports of wells, ponds, and springs that have gone dry. Although previously conducted analyses of streamflow records have not indicated surface water impacts, there is obvious visual evidence that discharge in many streams is drying up in late summer and early fall.

They found reasons to believe that the overall water table has dropped 10 to 40 feet since the 1980s. The number of wells with the water table falling below the top of bedrock (without any pumping) has been increasing. With a lowered relative position of the water table there may be less stored water in the soil and overburden (regolith) and in wells, thus impacting overall sustainability of groundwater water resources. With a falling water table groundwater is no longer connected to the streams that can no longer draw water to maintain flow.

Based on field observations before 2000 and after 2000, the  following changes have occurred with land use changes and development:

• Wells are drilled deeper,
• Surface runoff has increased,
• Infiltration (recharge to groundwater) has decreased,
• Some ponds, wells and springs have permanently gone dry,
• The elevation of the water table has dropped from mostly above the top of bedrock elevation to below the top of bedrock,
• Groundwater storage within the weathered bedrock has diminished, and
• Locally, some streams and creeks are no longer “gaining” discharge from groundwater but are “losing” water in the stream to groundwater, at least temporarily, when wells are pumped.

 Water supply is an issue that affects all Loudoun citizens, because we all need clean, affordable drinking water to survive and thrive. Currently, residents in the Waterford and Paeonian Springs villages are being confronted with a proposed $60 million water supply capital project (paid by all taxpayers) that will require an $18,000 hookup fee for each water user.  This project  has divided the residents over the scope, cost, and expectations of the proposed solution. Also, the proposed solution requires the construction of a small water system entirely dependent on groundwater wells for supply to replace individual wells. It is not clear how long these wells will be viable or if the community water system will suffer the supply restrictions of other well based systems in Loudoun County.

The Agriculture Work Group states that proactive planning is essential to foresee and forestall problems and unnecessarily expensive solutions. Increased analysis and monitoring of existing data, completion of the well system that was originally proposed along with a plan to better manage and protect groundwater supplies is important for the long-term health and vitality of those dependent on groundwater in the face of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.

Help the VA Forestry Preserve the Tree Stock

 

The Virginia Department of Forestry’s annual fall acorn collection campaign is underway. This is your chance to get out in the nice weather and help the Virginia Department of Forestry grow our future forests. According to State Forester Rob Farrell “Your donations help our nurseries grow trees with genetics that thrive when later planted in the Commonwealth’s forests and communities. Collecting can be educational and provides a fun group activity. Help us ensure our future forests are here for generations to come.”

Acorns, black walnuts and chestnuts are now falling across Virginia. Unfortunately, as there are fewer and fewer open forests, many of these acorns falling in our yards, sidewalks and parking lots will never grow into trees, especially those in cities and towns and along roadways. That’s where you come in.

This year, as in years past, the Virginia Department of Forestry is asking the public to help in preserving Virginia species by collecting acorns and nuts and delivering them to the nearest forestry department office. Virginians can help preserve native tree species by collecting acorns and nuts from 17 needed species, especially the first 4. Acorns and nuts must be received by October 15.

Bag ‘em! – Place acorns in a paper bag or cardboard box (no plastic bags!)

Tag ‘em! – Mark the bag or box with the date, species (e.g.; black oak) and location (e.g.; Roanoke) If you are not sure of the species simply include a leaf from the tree in the bag.

Drop ‘em! – Drop them off at your closest DOF location Please keep acorns and nuts separated by species. If you’re not sure of the species, just drop a leaf from the tree into the bag with the acorns.

You can drop off acorns and nuts at any DOF office location by 5 p.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 15. Collection areas will be designated outside each office. Just use the “Find a Forester” tool on the DOF home page to find the office nearest you: Welcome to the Virginia Department of Forestry Virginia Department of Forestry

They  appreciate and accept all donations, but our species “wish list” for this year includes the following 17 species especially the first 4! Go to the Acorn and Nut Identification Guide from the Virginia Department of Forestry for pictures of different acorns and nuts. Remember you can just include a tree leaf in your bag. 

• *Black Oak
• *Black Walnut
• *Chestnut Oak
• *White Oak
• Bur Oak
• Cherrybark Oak
• Chinese Chestnut
• Chinkapin Oak  
• Pin Oak  
• Northern Red Oak
• Southern Red Oak
• Shumard Oak Swamp
• Chestnut Oak  
• Swamp White Oak  
• Water Oak
• Willow Oak
• Overcup Oak

Healthy, sustainable forests are essential to our economy, wildlife and people. The Virginia Department of Forestry monitors forest health and assists landowners through technical assistance and management planning to support sustainable forestry practices. Nurseries grow and sell seedlings to help develop future forests.

Moisture Problems and Leaks

Moisture and water infiltration is a major cause of home destruction and needs to be addressed before your home is consumed by the elements and nature. Water stains can be caused by roof leaks, other leaks or condensing moisture. There's a lot of moisture generated inside homes. Small water leaks of all kinds can be ignored for a very long time, don’t, they tend to grow into larger and more expensive problems.

It is always rainstorms that tell me I have a problem. In 2023 it was a big rainstorm that told me my roof was shot. After the rainstorm while soaking in the tub I looked up and noticed a small stain in the ceiling over the bathtub.  The two roofers that I consulted both said the roof could not be patched, the roof was shot and needed to be replaced. The 25 year asphalt architectural shingles wore away in under 18 years-possibly helped by the runoff flow from the solar panels.

We are expecting a big rain over the next couple of days, and I am looking forward to checking out the repair and caulking to the large window in the family room. This is the third repair- each one has lasted a couple of years, and I hope to put off the inevitable for a couple more years, but soon enough I will have to replace the all the windows in the family room. I had hoped to save up the money to replace all the windows at once and put new siding on the house, but that no longer seems possible. My windows are failing faster than my savings is growing.

I am just going to have to replace the windows and siding piecemeal. Hopefully, this last repair will hold for the next year or two and, but I will do whatever I have to. Do not ignore water leaks. The damage just accumulates and grows worse. Look for bubbling paint, ceiling or wall stains, and cracks. These are all signs of moisture, and moisture can lead to wood rot.

Wood rot is sometimes called “dry rot,” but that is simply a misnomer. Decayed wood is often dry in the final stages when the wood has blossomed with the bodies of wood-rotting fungus giving rias the illusion of dry rot, but moisture is required for the rot to spread. While the decay is taking place the wood must be moist. Wood rot or decay is caused by fungi, microscopic plants that form threads almost invisible to the naked eye unless they are clumped together. Some fungi merely discolor wood, but decay fungi destroy the fibers that give the wood strength. Spores or “seeds” of decay fungi are always present in the air; they can’t be kept away from wood. But fungi can only grow in wood only when it contains more than 20 % moisture.

There are also two species of fungi that spread from moist soil into dry wood by conducting water to the wood through vine-like structures, but most fungi cannot conduct moisture. Decay happen most frequently when two conditions are present, the wood is regularly soaked and remains wet through a leak, and a section of the wood is exposed or in contact with soil.

Fungi and termites or ants may sometimes occur in the same wood because the moisture attracts pests. Decay fungi soften the wood and, in the final stages, make it spongy or cause it to shrink, crack and crumble, but do not produce the continuous, clear-cut tunnels or galleries characteristic of termite infestation. Often wood decay occurs without termites. To prevent wood decay you need to keep decay fungi from entering the bottom of the structure and keep the wood elements dry.

To prevent moisture, your home site should be well drained. The soil surface should slope away from the house, and downspouts should discharge into drains or masonry gutters or splash blocks that lead the water several feet away from the house. The gutters need to be kept clean and clear of debris to function.  I was careful to choose a house with a natural slope from northwest corner to southeast corner. I added French drains to the west side and south side of the house to move the gutter collected water away from the home and I was careful about maintenance, and yet my home developed a wood rot problem.

Serious decay damage is most often due to one or more of the following errors in construction or maintenance:

1. Poorly drained soil and insufficient ventilation under houses without basements.
2. Wood such as grade stakes, concrete forms, or stumps left on or in soil under houses.
3. Wood parts of the house in direct contact with the soil. 
4. Wood parts embedded in masonry near the ground.
5. Use of unseasoned and infected lumber.
6. Sheathing paper that is not sufficiently permeable to moisture vapor.
7. Inadequate flashing at windows, doors, and roof edges.
8. Poor joinery around windows and doors and at corners, and inadequate paint maintenance.
9. Lack of rain gutters and roofs without overhang.
10. Unventilated attics.
11. Roof leaks; leaks around shower-bathtub combinations, kitchen fixtures, and laundry rooms.
12. Failure to use pressure treated lumber or naturally durable wood where moisture cannot be controlled.

An example of wood rot that can undermine the structure of the house

Senior citizens ripping off the front of the house that was ultimately rebuilt

Federal Oversight for the ICPRB

The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, ICPRB, was one of the first organizations with a congressional mandate to consider water resources on a watershed basis, rather than along political boundaries. The ICPRB was authorized by congress in 1940 to address the pollution of the river. Back in the days when the ICPRB was formed, raw sewage flowed directly into Four Mile Run, Hunting Creek, Hooffs Run, and the Potomac River. The river tributaries were putrid and clogged, a foul mix of bubbling, decomposing human waste in brown waters. Shorelines were devoid of wildlife, and tests showed dozens of disease-causing pathogens. Water pollution was so bad that propeller airplane passengers from D.C. (filled with the members of congress) could look down and see the sludge. The extent of the problem was documented in 1949 by the Izaak Walton League, one of the first conservation organizations in the U.S., in a film showing water conditions in Alexandria.

Over time the ICPRB has changed. In the 1978 the  Potomac River Low Flow Allocation Agreement in 1978 was created in response to the droughts of the 1960’s and 1970’s.  ICPRB today allocates and manages water resources of the river through the management of the jointly owned Jennings Randolph Reservoir (built in 1981), Potomac River Low Flow Allocation Agreement (1978) and the Water Supply Coordination Agreement in 1982 which designated a section of the ICPRB as responsible for allocating water resources during times of low flow. These action improved reliability of the water supply and ensured maintenance of in-stream flows to meet minimum aquatic habitat requirements. The section of ICPRB responsible for all this is known as the Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP), and is formally empowered in its duty by the Water Supply Coordination Agreement of 1982.

This ICPRB is intended to coordinate all the political entities, Maryland, Virginia, Fairfax Water, Washington DC, the federal government and counties and cities within and dependent on the watershed to address the basin’s major challenges, including water quality impairments, water supply and restrictions, flooding, groundwater use, nonpoint source pollution and emerging contaminates. Now the ICPRB is about to change again. Last week  the U.S. House of Representatives released the following press release about forthcoming changes in oversight:

The U.S. House of Representatives passed Representative Rob Bresnahan’s, Jr. (PA-08) legislation, H.R. 3428, the Mid-Atlantic River Basin Commissions Review Act. The legislation, which passed by a unanimous vote, would increase Congressional oversight of three river basin commissions, ensuring they implement the necessary practices to serve as good stewards of taxpayer resources.

“Over the years, rivers in the Mid-Atlantic have grown in importance as our populations have grown and water usage has increased,” said Rep. Bresnahan.“Due to this expansion, the commissions that manage these rivers have been handed a growing amount of responsibility that has largely gone unchecked by the federal government, despite their involvement across state lines. My legislation will address this lapse by directing studies for recommendations and increasing federal oversight on these organizations, and I look forward to advocating for its passage in the Senate.” 

The commissions included in the legislation are the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), and the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB). Under this legislation, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) will conduct a review focusing on each river basin commission’s ethics practices, communication with the public, and how each commission carries out federal responsibilities. The legislation first passed out of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure (T&I) on June 11, 2025.

“Congressman Bresnahan’s good government bill ensures that federal river basin commissions for the Susquehanna, Delaware, and Potomac rivers are properly using their federal resources and spending taxpayers’ dollars wisely,” said T&I Chairman Sam Graves (MO-06). “Congress has a duty to conduct its oversight responsibilities over the Mid-Atlantic River Basin Commissions. This legislation increases accountability and oversight of the Mid-Atlantic River Basin Commissions, especially after a state-level audit of the Susquehanna River Basin Commission raised concerns about ethics compliance and appropriate use of funds. I want to thank Rep. Bresnahan for his work on this bill and his leadership on this issue.”

Ethiopian Mega Hydroelectric Dam goes into Full Operation

On Tuesday Ethiopia inaugurated full operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This is Africa’s biggest hydroelectric dam and is located in the headwaters of the Blue Nile the major tributary to the Nile River. It is at the center of an escalating dispute between Egypt and Sudan on one side and Ethiopia on the other about the control of the waters of the Nile the source of fresh water for more than 100 million people.  Ethiopia began filling the reservoir behind the dam in 2020, and tensions are high.

The hydroelectric dam took fourteen years to complete and was producing 3,400 megawatts but on Tuesday it was boosted to 5,150 megawatts. The Renaissance Dam will be Africa's largest hydroelectric power plant enabling Ethiopia to export renewable power and boost the economy and influence of Ethiopia, but also allowing Ethiopia to control water flow to Egypt.

Egypt is rightly worried the dam will affect the overall flow of the Nile River and together with Sudan which is also located downriver. Ethiopia lost over 15,000 lives and has spent $4.8 billion in building the dam according to an article in the Reporter. Attempts at negotiations have failed over the years and Egypt has vowed not to allow the dam to impede its water supply.

African Union-mediated negotiations failed to bring an agreement where Ethiopia believes the water resources that originate in their country are theirs and Egypt and Sudan were guaranteed the water rights by the British, a quirk of the colonial history of the region.   The 1920’s Anglo-Egyptian Treaty amongst other things granted Egypt an annual water allocation of 48 billion cubic meters and Sudan 4 billion cubic meters out of an estimated average annual yield of 84 billion cubic meters. The 1959 agreement increased water allocations to both Egypt and Sudan 75% and 25% of the Nile’s water respectively, with none allocated to the source nations.  

The "Entebbe Agreement" known as the "Cooperative Framework Agreement for the Nile Basin" was rejected by Egypt and Sudan. It went into effect in September 2024. There are several  controversial clauses, the most prominent of which include the redistribution of water and allowing upstream countries to implement water projects without consensus from the downstream countries.

Egypt and Sudan are dependent on the Nile water for 98.26% and 96.13% of their annual water need, respectively (FAO 2015).  Few nations rely so completely on a single river, and 80% of the water that flows into the Nile originates in Ethiopia. Water rights along the Nile have been disputed since the 1959 agreement which allocated all the remaining waters of the Nile; today, the conflict threatens to escalate to war. Egypt and Sudan feel their survival is threatened. Scientific studies done at the University of Southern California show the dire water situation that will result downstream from Ethiopia’s continued actions. This is forecasted to be the largest water dispute in human history.

Egypt is largely a desert; but is the most populous Arab state with a large segment of its population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, not to mention the food security. Any reduction in water flow to Egypt would impact political and economic stability and cause a humanitarian crisis as Egypt is already experiencing extreme water stress with less than 600 cubic meters of water per capita per year. 

Now that the reservoir is filled the Nile flow would in theory return to normal, but control of the Nile flow now belongs to Ethiopia.  Egypt could suffer less damage if Ethiopia and Egypt work together adjusting the rate of filling the reservoir to ensure that Egypt's own reservoir, Lake Nasser, stays full enough to meet its needs during the fill. Nonetheless, this may be the biggest treat to Egypt’s existence in 5,000 years.

Egypt maintains that it has the right to defend its water security and take necessary measures to achieve that, starting from its demand for a binding legal agreement for filling and operating the dam, leading to hinting at military options and resorting to the United Nations Security Council, but these moves have not achieved breakthroughs and seemingly were political theatre.  

The Nile River moves through Burundi, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Each country views the Nile as at least partly their own. Egypt receives the lion's share of Nile waters: more than 55 billion of the around 88 billion cubic meters of water that flow down the river each year. Still, Egypt has one of the lowest per capita shares of water in the world, some 600 cubic meters a person. Egypt's population was 19 million in 1947 and has reportedly reached more than 96 million today without any increase in water availability.

In its 2013 report, titled “Water Resources and Means to Rationalize their Use,” Egypt revealed that each Egyptian's annual share of water declined from a water surplus of 2,526 cubic meters in 1947 to a sufficient level of 1,972 cubic meters in 1970 (when their population was around 35 million), and then water poverty (U.N.’s threshold of water poverty) at less than 600 cubic meters today. The flow of the Nile has not increased and it has been the limiting factor in the growth of Egyptian population and their economy. Nonetheless, Egypt has started implementing national projects to rationalize water use, including the national water resources and irrigation plan (water security for all 2050).

Official forecasts are that Egypt will double its population in 50 years without more water this is impossible.  There is simply not enough water and control of the existing supply may now belong to Ethiopia. In a 2015 Declaration of Principles agreement, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan agreed to contract an independent study of the dam's impact and abide by it for filling the reservoir and operating the dam. However, the study was never completed.

Egypt and Sudan face not only the limitations on the flow of the Nile, but also the shifting of power now that Ethiopia will to a large extent control the flow of the Nile. The regional tensions are growing. Egypt and Sudan alliance may not be solid. Sudan’s could gain from a separate agreement with Ethiopia for electricity supply and flooding prevention during rainy seasons.

For Ethiopia, the $5 billion dam is the realization of a dream. Ethiopia's infrastructure was among the least developed in the world, leaving most of its 95 million people without access to electricity. The hydroelectric dam will have the capacity to generate over 5,150 Megawatts, a massive boost to the current production of 4,000 Megawatts. Ethiopia is forecasting $427 million in power sales this year.  Bloomberg reports that $290 million of that is from data mining companies. The electric power and water will shift the geopolitical forces of the region and Ethiopia is planning other major projects.

A few days ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed confirmed that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is just the beginning of other dams. Published peer reviewed scientific studies have also revealed that the dam does not represent the last Ethiopian water projects on the Blue Nile, and there are future plans to build additional dams.

With Every Decision PW moves closer to Destroying our Watershed

The Bay Journal reports: “A recently completed analysis of high-resolution aerial surveys of the six-state watershed finds that the amount of land covered by roads, rooftops, parking lots and other impervious surfaces expanded annually by 13,226 acres, or 20 square miles, from 2013 through 2021… The data comes from a federally funded effort to map and track changes in land use and land cover across the Bay watershed every four years. Collaborators on the project include the nonprofit Chesapeake Conservancy, the U.S. Geological Survey, University of Vermont and the federal-state Chesapeake Bay Program.” 

Stream health and groundwater recharge begins to decline when pavement, buildings and compacted soils of suburban lawns and sports fields cover more than 5% of a watershed. The problem with impervious surfaces is that they prevent the natural soaking of rainwater into the ground and recharging the groundwater.

Groundwater flow and storage is often viewed as static reservoirs that serve as the savings account for surface water flow. Through the hyporheic zone groundwater feeds streams between rain storms, but groundwater is dynamic and continually changing in response to human and climate stress [Alley et al., 2002; Gleeson et al., 2010]. Changes in precipitation patterns, the amount of precipitation, and the changes in land use impacts available groundwater and surface water.

Land use changes that increase impervious cover, add more suburban lawns, roadways, buildings, pavement and eliminating woodlands does two things. It reduces the open area for rain and snow to seep into the ground and percolate into the water table and groundwater and the impervious surfaces cause stormwater velocity to increase preventing water from having enough time to percolate into the earth, increasing storm flooding and preventing recharge of groundwater from occurring. Land use changes also potentially increase the use of groundwater by adding more homes and businesses that utilize groundwater.

Very slowly, changes in land use change the ecology of thewatershed and can reduce the water supply over time. As groundwater continues to be used levels fall, perennial steams that feed the rivers become intermittent during dry periods as we have seen recently in Prince William County, Loudoun County and Fauquier County.

Changing land use and the changing climate that are bringing new patterns of rain and drought and are impacting the Occoquan Reservoir.  From The Bay Journal: “The aerial surveys conducted in 2017-18 spotted 3,000 square miles of impervious cover. That’s just 4.75% of the Bay watershed’s land area, seemingly below that 5% threshold for impacting water quality. But pavement and buildings aren’t evenly distributed…(there are areas) in the spreading suburbs of Maryland and Virginia where more than 20% of their watersheds are covered with pavements and buildings.”

“Peter Claggett, a research geographer with the U.S. Geological Survey who’s helped analyze the data garnered from the high-resolution aerial surveys, said he was surprised by the pace at which impervious cover continued to expand… and noticed a change in the type of development... It’s warehouses, data centers, chicken houses … he said. “Those are the kind of buildings we’ve seen that are new. And you also have the solar panel arrays…The 2021-22 surveys spotted only about 4,400 acres of arrays across the six-state watershed, nearly two-thirds of that in Virginia.”

Data Centers also impact the stream flow. As Prince William Water points out: “Once used by data centers in western Prince William County, the wastewater is treated at the Upper Occoquan Service Authority Water Reclamation Plant and released as reclaimed water to the Occoquan Reservoir. In this water cycle, water used from the Potomac is reclaimed and released into the Occoquan Reservoir, adding volume.” Higher wastewater effluent while the changing climate and land use reduce river flow can introduce higher relative concentrations of minerals and salts, pharmaceutical, personal care and cleaning chemicals into the drinking water supply, potentially requiring additional treatment lines at great expense for all customers of the Griffith plant.

We need more information before we damage or destroy our fragile Bull Run and Occoquan Watersheds. We are paving over the watershed with roads, data centers, parking lots houses and electrical infrastructure reducing the groundwater recharge, reducing our stream flow, increasing the contaminants in the Occoquan and increasing the water demand. Although hidden in the subsurface, groundwater is the most important freshwater component in the hydrological cycle. Groundwater exists below all land with varying distance to the surface, but only in 20-30% of the land area is groundwater close to the land surface to feed surface streams and provide ecological services.

Groundwater releases water to streams sustaining the base flow of streams and rivers (Hare et al., 2021). Groundwater is the primary source of springs and many wetlands (Bertrand et al., 2011; Havril et al., 2018; Gleeson et al., 2020a). Finally, the groundwater saturated subsurface, the hyporheic, makes up the largest continental biome contributing to the health and purity of our water resource. The small changes that the Bull Run Conservancy has reported in the springs, seeps and streams is telling us that our watershed is changing, and not in a good way.

It appears that even with just the current level of development, the depth to groundwater is increasing enough to disconnect some streams from the groundwater during summer months. These are the first small signs that the watershed is beginning to die- streams become intermittent and eventually become ephemeral- flowing only during rainstorms. These streams flow into the Bull Run and the Occoquan River that provide the portion of our eastern service area drinking water supply that is not from recycled wastewater. Of course, increasing numbers of data centers will increase the amount of wastewater available, but that may not be all good. During rainless periods the fraction of treated wastewater could exceed the amount of natural water very soon. 

Prince William County is beginning to see changes in the watersheds within the county.  The groundwater is becoming disconnected from Little Bull Run and Catlett’s Creek in the area of the headwaters of those streams. Once the hydrology and ecological biome is destroyed by development, it cannot be easily restored, if at all. Protecting the Occoquan Reservoir requires protecting all the water resources in a region because all water in the watershed is connected. Impact on our water resources need to be considered when planning for the future of Prince William County and our county has not done that. We are sacrificing the future of our region and our water supply to dollars from building data centers and more and more development.

The Jordan River and the Dead Sea

 The article below is excerpted from the papers cited at the end. 

The black is the dead sea. The blue is the evaporation ponds for the potash industry in Israel (left) and Jordan (right)

The Dead Sea is actually a lake and the saltiest and most mineral-rich body of water in the world. It is at least six times saltier than most bodies of water on Earth. is a landlocked salt lake bordered by Jordan to the east, the Israeli-occupied West Bank to the west and Israel to the southwest. When I was young it was quite the tourist destination renown for its healing waters and picturesque beach, but over the decades that has been changing.

The Dead Sea is fed mainly by the Jordan River from the north. Because of irrigation projects and other water needs upstream, the level of the Dead Sea has been falling. Over the past 50 years, the level of the Dead Sea has dropped by 45 meters, and the rate of decline is increasing. From 1930 to 1973, the sea declined 17 centimeters per year. By the turn or the century, the sea declined 100 centimeters per year. A 2018 report by Israel’s Ministry of Environmental Protection reports that the level is now falling 1.2 meters a year. As the water withdraws, sinkholes are forming. The Dead Sea is dying.

The level is falling because much less water now enters the Dead Sea from the Jordan River. The river once brought 1.3 billion cubic meters of fresh water every year into the sea. Now it brings only about 100 million cubic meters, most of it agricultural runoff and sewage. Rainfall only amounts to an average of about 50 millimeters annually. The Dead Sea has lost most of its water supply. 

River flows in the lower Jordan River, which marks Jordan’s western border with Israel and the West Bank/ Palestine, are estimated to have declined by nearly 90% since predevelopment. This is mostly due to the diversion of the upper Jordan River into the National Water Carrier by Israel and the diversion of the tributaries by Syria and Jordan. The Yarmouk River tributary, currently Jordan’s primary surface-water source is largely captured upstream by Syria. Throughout Jordan, groundwater is being rapidly depleted, with observed groundwater-level declines of 0.9 to 3.5 m/y since 1995 in the country’s most highly productive aquifer- further reducing river flow.  To the south, Jordan competes with Saudi Arabia for shared groundwater from the fossil regional aquifer.

Jordan is considered one of the countries in the world with the least water resources. Jordan is a relatively small country with a total area of 92,300 km2, bordered on the north by Syria, to the east by Iraq, and by Saudi Arabia to the east and south, where it has its only short coastline onto the Gulf of Aqaba on the Red Sea. On the west it is bordered by Israel and the West Bank/ Palestine. In 2001 the renewable water resources were only 150 m3/cap/year. This is clearly unsustainable.

In the 1950s, Jordan’s population was about half a million people. Now there are more than 10 million in a country with a sustainable water supply that can sustain a population of about only 2 million according to researchers at the World Bank. Residents make do with 135 cubic meters, or about 36,000 gallons, of water per person per year; the United Nations defines water scarcity” at 500 cubic meters per year.

Climate change further threaten Jordan’s tenuous situation. The changing environment both contributes to and suffers from the water crisis. Climate change and desertification dry out the area, reducing vegetation and farms. In desperation for water the local population overdraw the groundwater shrinking any reserves that might exist. This holds the potential to exacerbate the regional political and military conflicts, upstream water diversions and poor cross-border cooperation.  

Rainfall decline in Jordan has been observed in the past century, and climate models predict further increased temperatures with increasing frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts. Still, population growth has had the biggest impact on water use for people and the agriculture needed to feed the people. Jordan’s population has been punctuated by sudden, large refugee influxes from Syria. In 2010, Jordan’s population was 7.2 million, growing to over 10.8 million by 2020, a period when at least 1.1 million Syrian refugees fled Syria’s 2011 war.

In response to water shortages, Jordan has tired to increase water supply by water reuse. In Amman, the largest city and capital, over 95% of wastewater is treated and recycled. However, Jordan’s water-distribution system is inefficient and intermittent. Approximately 50% of Jordan’s piped supply is lost as “nonrevenue water” (NRW), due to either pipeline leaks,  water theft or other issues. On average, households in the capital of Amman receive piped water for only 36 hours per week, with lower-income neighborhoods receiving as low as 24 hours of municipal supply, while higher-income households receive up to 5 days of uninterrupted supply per week.

Though Jordan is uniquely challenged, it’s a preview of what the region faces as a whole. Middle Eastern nations top the list of the most water-stressed countries, the World Resources Institute says. Water, beyond being necessary for survival, is also a driver of economies and political conflicts around the world. This makes water scarcity an issue that affects all facets of human life and even exacerbates pre-existing issues within a country. 

Approximately 2.1 billion people around the world face significant challenges due to water shortages, and the severity and impact of these shortages varies between countries due to environmental and economic conditions. Jordan may show us what happens next.

Source Material:

J. Yoon, C. Klassert, P. Selby, T. Lachaut, S. Knox, N. Avisse, J. Harou, A. Tilmant, B. Klauer, D. Mustafa, K. Sigel, S. Talozi, E. Gawel, J. Medellín-Azuara, B. Bataineh, H. Zhang,  S.M. Gorelick,; A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118 (14) e2020431118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2020431118 (2021).

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change | PNAS

Seawater and Brackish Water Desalination in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia World Bank Document

Industry | EROS from USGS

Dead Sea, Israel, Jordan, West Bank | EROS from USGS