Ethiopian Mega Hydroelectric Dam goes into Full Operation

On Tuesday Ethiopia inaugurated full operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This is Africa’s biggest hydroelectric dam and is located in the headwaters of the Blue Nile the major tributary to the Nile River. It is at the center of an escalating dispute between Egypt and Sudan on one side and Ethiopia on the other about the control of the waters of the Nile the source of fresh water for more than 100 million people.  Ethiopia began filling the reservoir behind the dam in 2020, and tensions are high.

The hydroelectric dam took fourteen years to complete and was producing 3,400 megawatts but on Tuesday it was boosted to 5,150 megawatts. The Renaissance Dam will be Africa's largest hydroelectric power plant enabling Ethiopia to export renewable power and boost the economy and influence of Ethiopia, but also allowing Ethiopia to control water flow to Egypt.

Egypt is rightly worried the dam will affect the overall flow of the Nile River and together with Sudan which is also located downriver. Ethiopia lost over 15,000 lives and has spent $4.8 billion in building the dam according to an article in the Reporter. Attempts at negotiations have failed over the years and Egypt has vowed not to allow the dam to impede its water supply.

African Union-mediated negotiations failed to bring an agreement where Ethiopia believes the water resources that originate in their country are theirs and Egypt and Sudan were guaranteed the water rights by the British, a quirk of the colonial history of the region.   The 1920’s Anglo-Egyptian Treaty amongst other things granted Egypt an annual water allocation of 48 billion cubic meters and Sudan 4 billion cubic meters out of an estimated average annual yield of 84 billion cubic meters. The 1959 agreement increased water allocations to both Egypt and Sudan 75% and 25% of the Nile’s water respectively, with none allocated to the source nations.  

The "Entebbe Agreement" known as the "Cooperative Framework Agreement for the Nile Basin" was rejected by Egypt and Sudan. It went into effect in September 2024. There are several  controversial clauses, the most prominent of which include the redistribution of water and allowing upstream countries to implement water projects without consensus from the downstream countries.

Egypt and Sudan are dependent on the Nile water for 98.26% and 96.13% of their annual water need, respectively (FAO 2015).  Few nations rely so completely on a single river, and 80% of the water that flows into the Nile originates in Ethiopia. Water rights along the Nile have been disputed since the 1959 agreement which allocated all the remaining waters of the Nile; today, the conflict threatens to escalate to war. Egypt and Sudan feel their survival is threatened. Scientific studies done at the University of Southern California show the dire water situation that will result downstream from Ethiopia’s continued actions. This is forecasted to be the largest water dispute in human history.

Egypt is largely a desert; but is the most populous Arab state with a large segment of its population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, not to mention the food security. Any reduction in water flow to Egypt would impact political and economic stability and cause a humanitarian crisis as Egypt is already experiencing extreme water stress with less than 600 cubic meters of water per capita per year. 

Now that the reservoir is filled the Nile flow would in theory return to normal, but control of the Nile flow now belongs to Ethiopia.  Egypt could suffer less damage if Ethiopia and Egypt work together adjusting the rate of filling the reservoir to ensure that Egypt's own reservoir, Lake Nasser, stays full enough to meet its needs during the fill. Nonetheless, this may be the biggest treat to Egypt’s existence in 5,000 years.

Egypt maintains that it has the right to defend its water security and take necessary measures to achieve that, starting from its demand for a binding legal agreement for filling and operating the dam, leading to hinting at military options and resorting to the United Nations Security Council, but these moves have not achieved breakthroughs and seemingly were political theatre.  

The Nile River moves through Burundi, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Each country views the Nile as at least partly their own. Egypt receives the lion's share of Nile waters: more than 55 billion of the around 88 billion cubic meters of water that flow down the river each year. Still, Egypt has one of the lowest per capita shares of water in the world, some 600 cubic meters a person. Egypt's population was 19 million in 1947 and has reportedly reached more than 96 million today without any increase in water availability.

In its 2013 report, titled “Water Resources and Means to Rationalize their Use,” Egypt revealed that each Egyptian's annual share of water declined from a water surplus of 2,526 cubic meters in 1947 to a sufficient level of 1,972 cubic meters in 1970 (when their population was around 35 million), and then water poverty (U.N.’s threshold of water poverty) at less than 600 cubic meters today. The flow of the Nile has not increased and it has been the limiting factor in the growth of Egyptian population and their economy. Nonetheless, Egypt has started implementing national projects to rationalize water use, including the national water resources and irrigation plan (water security for all 2050).

Official forecasts are that Egypt will double its population in 50 years without more water this is impossible.  There is simply not enough water and control of the existing supply may now belong to Ethiopia. In a 2015 Declaration of Principles agreement, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan agreed to contract an independent study of the dam's impact and abide by it for filling the reservoir and operating the dam. However, the study was never completed.

Egypt and Sudan face not only the limitations on the flow of the Nile, but also the shifting of power now that Ethiopia will to a large extent control the flow of the Nile. The regional tensions are growing. Egypt and Sudan alliance may not be solid. Sudan’s could gain from a separate agreement with Ethiopia for electricity supply and flooding prevention during rainy seasons.

For Ethiopia, the $5 billion dam is the realization of a dream. Ethiopia's infrastructure was among the least developed in the world, leaving most of its 95 million people without access to electricity. The hydroelectric dam will have the capacity to generate over 5,150 Megawatts, a massive boost to the current production of 4,000 Megawatts. Ethiopia is forecasting $427 million in power sales this year.  Bloomberg reports that $290 million of that is from data mining companies. The electric power and water will shift the geopolitical forces of the region and Ethiopia is planning other major projects.

A few days ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed confirmed that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is just the beginning of other dams. Published peer reviewed scientific studies have also revealed that the dam does not represent the last Ethiopian water projects on the Blue Nile, and there are future plans to build additional dams.