From a NERC Press Release:
NERC’s 2025–2026
Winter Reliability Assessment (WRA) finds that much of North
America is again at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies to
meet demand in extreme operating conditions. Although resources are adequate
for normal winter peak demand, any prolonged, wide-area cold snaps will be
challenging and may result in blackouts. This is largely due to rising
electricity demand, which has grown by 20 GW since last winter, significantly
outpacing winter on-peak capacity. This, coupled with the changing resource
mix, is affecting the winter outlook.
“Electricity demand continues to grow faster than the
resources being added to the grid, especially during the most extreme winter
conditions where actual demand can topple forecasts by as much as 25%--as we
saw in 2021 in ERCOT and SPP,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability
Assessments and Performance Analysis. “This latest assessment highlights
progress on cold weather readiness but underscores that more work remains to
ensure energy and fuel supplies can be reliably delivered even during the harshest
conditions.”
Although evidence from the past two winters indicates
notable improvement in the delivery of natural gas to bulk power system
generators, natural gas availability for generators remains precarious during
extreme winter conditions due to the uneven application of voluntary freeze
protection mitigations impacting production and transportation.
“Natural gas is an essential fuel for electricity generation
in winter. Winter fuel supplies for thermal generators must be readily
available during the periods of high demand for both electricity and natural
gas that accompany extreme cold weather,” said Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of
Reliability Assessment. “Although we are seeing evidence of improved
performance, grid operators in areas that rely on single-fuel gas-fired
generators are exposed to unanticipated generator loss during cold snaps when
gas supply interruptions are more prevalent,” said Mark Olson, NERC’s manager
of Reliability Assessment.
NERC’s cold weather Reliability Standards address
recommendations from winter storms Elliott and Uri reviews. The most recent
standard, EOP-012-3, became effective on October 1, 2025, among the
improvements in the new version are enhanced and expanded requirements to
ensure that Generator Owners (GO) implement corrective actions to address known
issues affecting their ability to operate in cold weather in a timely manner.
This year’s assessment, previewed in the 2025-2026 WRA video and summarized
in the WRA
infographic, makes a series of recommendations to reduce the risks of
energy shortfalls on the bulk power system this winter:
- Cold
Weather Preparations: GOs should complete winter readiness plans and checklists prior to
December, deploy weatherization packages well in advance of approaching
winter storms, and frequently check and maintain cold weather mitigations
while conditions persist.
- Load
Forecasting: Be cognizant of the potential for short-term
load forecasts to underestimate load in extreme cold weather events and be
prepared to take early action to implement protocols and procedures for
managing potential reserve deficiencies. .
- Fuel: They should prepare their operating plans to manage
potential supply shortfalls and take proactive steps fand should maintain
awareness of potential extreme cold weather developing over holiday
weekends and the implications for fuel planning and procurement that may
result over long,
holiday weekends.
- Regulation
and Policy: State and provincial regulators can assist grid owners and
operators in advance of and during extreme cold weather by amplifying public appeals
for electricity and natural gas conservation, and supporting requested
environmental and transportation waivers.
Undertaken annually in coordination with the Regional
Entities, NERC’s WRA examines multiple factors that collectively provide deep
and unique insights into reliability risk. These factors include resource
adequacy, encompassing reserve margins and scenarios to identify operational
risk; fuel assurance; and preparations to mitigate reliability concerns.
