Does Prince William have a Housing Crisis?

Every residential development rezoning to increase allowed density that has been approved has been justified by “Prince William’s housing crisis”. The data supports that Prince William County is experiencing a severe housing affordability crisis, which the Board of County Supervisors and other officials often refer to as a "housing crisis". The problem is less about a lack of available physical housing units, though Prince William County failed to meet the MCOG’s overall housing target, and more about a significant shortage of homes that residents, particularly those with low and moderate incomes, can afford to rent or buy. 

Supervisors, staff and residents use the term "crisis" to describe the situation because:

• Housing costs are soaring while wages are not keeping pace. The median sales price for a home in the county was around $565K in October 2025, which is significantly above the national average.
• Many households are "cost-burdened," meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on housing. An analysis found that over 50% of the county's renters fall into this category.
• There is a significant shortage of affordable units. A 2023 report noted a deficit of 8,800 affordable rental units alone, and projections for 2040 indicate a potential shortage of 14,000 to 23,000 housing units in total if 2019 trends continued.
• Essential workers like teachers, firefighters, and nurses often struggle to live in the community they serve.

The Housing Affordability Crisis in Prince William County

The core issue is affordability, driven by a persistent mismatch between housing supply (especially for lower and middle-income residents in areas with transit and services) and demand.

Key Data Points

• Cost Burden for Renters: A staggering 50% of renter households in Prince William County are considered "cost-burdened," meaning they pay more than 30% of their monthly income for housing. This leaves less money for necessities like food, healthcare, and transportation.
• Affordable Rental Shortage: The county is reportedly short at least 8,800 affordable rental units. The greatest need is clustered at the Extremely Low Income level (30% of the Area Median Income (AMI) and below).
• Homeownership Out of Reach: The median sale price for a home has risen significantly. Based on mortgage standards, someone making the median annual income in the county often cannot afford a median-priced home. Essential workers like teachers, nurses, police, and firefighters are often priced out of the market.
• Supply Shortfall: The county has consistently failed to meet the annual production targets set by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG). For example, Prince William County's target was 2,353 new units in 2024, but only 1,202 were built.

Prince William County and local organizations are actively pursuing several strategies to address the crisis, focusing on increasing supply, improving affordability, and preventing homelessness.

County-Level Policy Solutions

• Affordable Dwelling Unit (AfDU) Ordinance: The county recently adopted its first-ever AfDU ordinance (effective December 2025), which offers density bonuses to developers who include affordable housing units in their projects. This targets households earning 80% or less of the Area Median Income (AMI), with greater incentives for those at 50% AMI or below.
• Housing Trust Fund (HTF): A Housing Trust Fund has been established, with a commitment of $5 million annually through 2029, to provide gap financing for affordable housing developments.
• Comprehensive Plan Updates: The county's planning process is focused on finding new land capacity through rezoning and increasing residential densities, particularly in transit-oriented communities, to meet the future housing demand.

Homelessness Prevention and Assistance

Local non-profits and county services are focused on immediate and long-term support for those in crisis:

• Coordinated Entry System (CES): This system is the single point of access for all people experiencing or at risk of homelessness in Prince William County. It assesses needs and connects households to resources like emergency shelter, rapid re-housing, and permanent supportive housing.
• Rental/Mortgage Assistance: Programs like the Emergency Housing Assistance Program (EHAP II) offer financial help to eligible households facing housing hardships.
• First-Time Homebuyers Program (FTHB): This program provides loans for down payment and closing cost assistance for low- and moderate-income residents.

The consensus from county staff, elected officials and advocates is that an "all-of-the-above" approach—combining policy, funding, and community collaboration—is necessary to overcome the housing affordability challenge. However, developers seem to be driving the direction of the response through rezoning of greenfield rather than smart solutions. 

The termination of the Rural Crescent policy in the adopted 2040 Comprehensive Plan (approved in late 2022) has two major impacts on the housing and conservation discussion:

1. It removes the primary planning tool for limiting sprawl and protecting open space.
2. It dramatically expands the potential land available for increased housing density. Yet, the development community continually looks to expand density beyond the planning in the Comprehensive Plan- Pathway to 2040.

 Shift in the County's Plan (BOCS)

The termination of the Rural Crescent (which previously restricted development to 1 unit per 10 acres) was explicitly justified and motivated by the need to address the housing affordability crisis by making more land available for residential development.

• The New Land Use Designations: The 2040 Comprehensive Plan replaces the "Rural Area" with designations like "Agricultural and Forestry" (upzoned from 1 unit/10 acres to 1 unit/5 acres as proposed in the draft) and "Conservation Residential" (allowing for clustered homes at up to 1 unit per 2 acres with 60% of the land preserved in easement).
• Massive Increase in Development Potential: This change essentially doubles the potential development density in large swaths of the county, which translates to the potential for thousands of new homes—which some claim can now be closer to the "affordable" threshold (though not necessarily meeting the deep affordability needs).
• Alignment with Affordable Housing Goal: The BOCS's adoption of the 2040 Comprehensive Plan aligns its land use policy (which governs where and how much can be built) with its Housing Chapter policies (AfDU Ordinance and Housing Trust Fund), providing the land supply needed to meet the affordability goals.

The Prince William Conservation Alliance (PWCA) and other groups were the most vocal opponents of this change.

• Loss of a Core Tool: The Rural Crescent was the single most important tool for Prince William County to combat sprawl and protect the county's western watersheds and historical resources. Its termination was a major loss that enables "haphazard" development.
• The New Battleground is fighting poorly conceived individual rezoning applications in the former Rural Crescent area, which would convert thousands of acres of rural land to data center and industrial use, and higher density housing zoning than the watershed can support impacting water resources necessary to supply the Occoquan Reservoir.
• Focus on Environmental Conditions: Any new development in the "Agricultural and Forestry" or "Conservation Residential" areas should strictly adheres to environmental protections, limits on public sewer extensions (which facilitate high density), and open space preservation as approved in the 2040 Comprehensive Plan which had the input of consultants and professional staff. 

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Updated Comparison Summary

Feature	BOCS Approved Plans (Post-2040 Comp Plan)	Prince William Conservation Alliance (PWCA) Ideas	Relationship
Land Supply	Significantly increased by eliminating the 1:10 density restriction in the former Rural Crescent and allowing for higher densities (1:5 and 1:2 clustered).	Strong opposition to this land supply increase, arguing it is unsustainable, leads to sprawl, and strains infrastructure.	Direct Conflict
Affordability Tool	AfDU Ordinance and Housing Trust Fund remain the core tools for subsidizing affordability.	Supports the Housing Trust Fund but insists new density must be focused on existing urbanized areas and transit corridors, not the former rural area.	Divergence on Location
Environmental Focus	Emphasizes "Conservation Residential" policies to cluster development and preserve some open space (60%) on site.	Demands maximum enforcement of conservation measures and opposes the extension of public sewer/water into the former Rural Crescent as a prerequisite for higher density.	Tension over Enforcement

 In short, the County Staff is attempting to solve the housing crisis by making more land available for development through the new Comprehensive Plan, while simultaneously using the AfDU Ordinance to mandate a portion of that new supply be affordable. The BOCS is approving almost all rezonings to generate tax money from data centers to fund their programs and further increase housing density. They have forgotten that it is necessary to also protect the Occoquan Watershed to provide drinking water to the eastern portion of Prince William County.  As the Prince William Conservation Alliance (PWCA) points out this environmentally damaging overreach, the housing crisis should be solved through higher density and redevelopment in the existing urban core