Drought 2026

Last week when the U.S. Drought Monitor published the current status. All of Virginia was noted to be in Drought with 97.39% (dark orange) in severe drought and 17.57% in extreme drought (red area). Since the beginning of the water year on September 30, 2025 Haymarket has experienced 15.76 inches of rain. Average for that period of time is 23.16 inches of rain. The drought continues to build.

The dry conditions in Virginia have prompted several local governments to institute burn bans due to increased wildfire risk. Droughts in Virginia can have far-reaching impacts on agriculture, water availability, and wildfires. Yet, the largest irrigated crop in Virginia is suburban lawns. The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) has placed the region under a drought warning, which indicates that a "significant drought event is imminent".

Most of the Potomac watershed is now experiencing abnormally dry conditions due to a record-breaking lack of rainfall since 2024. Due to these conditions, the water utilities are encouraging customers to practice wise water use for indoor activities—like washing clothes and dishes, showering, and brushing your teeth—and for outside uses like watering their lawns or washing their cars. Prince William Water has wise water use tips that suggest if you are continuing to water your lawn, only water three days a week and avoid the peak water times (set on all your automatic sprinkler systems) of 4-8 am.  

The Washington DC metropolitan area is home to over 5 million residents who rely on the Potomac River for approximately 75% of their drinking water. Since the early 1980s, the three major water suppliers in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia have operated as a cooperative regional system to ensure reliable access to this shared resource. Until very recently, despite significant population growth, water demand has remained essentially flat due to widespread adoption of water-saving fixtures and appliances, but there is little that can be achieved with water-saving fixtures. Now, the addition of suburban lawns and data centers is increasing water use especially in the summer months.

The ICPRB reports that new record low flows continue to be set. Last week, the USGS gage at Little Falls is 3,570 cubic feet per second, while the 96-year historical low for this time of year had been 3,820 cubic feet per second. That low was set in 1969, not coincidentally around the same time that ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac was established to manage drought. So, unless the watershed get lots of rain in the coming months, it appears we are headed into a drought of historical proportions. 

The ICPRB believes that there is an above-normal probability our region needing releases from the Washington metropolitan area’s back-up water supply reservoirs for the 2026 summer and fall seasons. Typically, the use of the Jennings Randolph and Little Seneca reservoirs is triggered by low river flows resulting from a combination of low summer precipitation and low groundwater levels. 

Now is the time to be water wise. For me, I am avoiding replanting anything this year and leave the lawn to the weeds, dirt and bald spots until the drought is over. I will continue to fill the gator bag on the 6 inch caliper maple that I bought a few years back, the redbud recently planted.