Winter Forecast from NOAA

From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA.  El Nino Looms Large over U.S. Winter Outlook

URL: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook

NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook shows the current El Nino will likely influence the upcoming winter months (December 2026 to February 2027), with warmer-than-average temperatures expected across the northern U.S.; wetter-than-average conditions likely across the southern U.S., from California to Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard; and drought improving for the majority of the country, including areas in the East, Southern Great Plains and Southwest. After, the devastating rain last weekend in Florida, I thought to take a look.

“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.” 

Precipitation Outlook

• Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast.
• Elevated odds for drier-than-average conditions for Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, some areas in the Great Lakes and the western Pacific Islands.
• Areas in the Intermountain West, northern Plains, Ohio Valley and Puerto Rico / U.S. Virgin Islands have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation amounts. 

They weren’t kidding about that forecast. Over last weekend more than two feet of rain fell along portions of Florida in just a day and a half, from Sunday afternoon to Monday evening.

As reported in the Washington Post an event like this so rare that it had a recurrence interval of more than 1-in-1,000 years in some areas. This could be a sign of what’s to come with the powerful El Niño this winter. Nothing like Florida is expected here (though it was not expected there, either), but we are forecast to have above average precipitation this winter and above average temperatures- so it’s rain.

 

Temperature Outlook

• Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East, Alaska and for Puerto Rico / U.S. Virgin Islands.
• Near-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Southeast including Florida.
• Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.

Drought Outlook

• Drought conditions are forecast to improve or end in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast.
• Drought conditions are favored to develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies, along with northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.

About NOAA's seasonal outlooks

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center updates its three-month outlook monthly.