Last week Dominion Energy filed its 2023 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) with the State Corporation Commission(SCC). In the submission, Dominion details how it plans to meet electricity needs and demands over the next 15 years. The picture they paint is that Dominion cannot both meet the power demand of the exploding number of data centers in Virginia and the mandates of the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA).
The 2020 VCEA is the state’s law outlining a path to decarbonize
the electric grid by 2050. VCEA requires the Commonwealth to retire its natural
gas power plants by 2045 (Dominion) and 2050 (Appalachian Power). These
facilities currently comprise 67% of the current baseload in-state generation
as well as 100% of the power plants that meet peak demand. About 30% of
Virginia’s generation is from nuclear. Basically, the utility can run
carbon-emitting facilities until 2040 and must build a stated amount of solar
and wind generation. Only by petitioning
the SCC and demonstrating a need to maintain grid reliability can they continue
running their fossil fuel plants. When the VCEA was crafted, they did not
foresee the explosive demand for electricity that unconstrained data center
development would drive.
Dominion Energy Virginia does not produce all the electricity it delivers and sells. Dominion Energy is a member of PJM Interconnection,
LLC (PJM), the regional transmission organization coordinating the wholesale
electric grid in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. PJM other
members supply a significant amount of the energy used in Virginia- about a fifth.
PJM recently identified increasing reliability risks due to both the growing
demand for power in Virginia and the profile of that power demand and from the
premature retirement of dispatchable carbon generation facilities across the region.
This switch mandated by VCEA has not been successfully
accomplished anywhere in the world, yet. Advances in technology were always
necessary to achieve the goals and those advances have not come fast enough. Dominion
states that to retire all carbon-emitting generation by the end of 2045, the
Company will need to build and buy significant incremental capacity to reliably
meet customer load. Their plan to do that requires over 4,500 MW of incremental
energy storage and more than 3,000 MW of incremental Small Modular Nuclear,
SMR, (which does not exist yet and falls in the category of insert magic here).
Even with these additional resources, Dominion would have to purchase 10,800 MW
of additional capacity from PJM in 2045 and beyond, raising significant
concerns about system reliability and energy independence, including over-reliance
on out of-state capacity to meet customer needs. This Plan will also require a substantial increase in energy purchase limits from both PJM and the SCC; and it is questionable if they will be granted.
Zoning and land use have always been left up to the
counties. It is clear that there is no limit to the desirability of data
centers to county supervisors and landowners. The counties of Prince William
and Loudoun have been blinded by the windfall profits to the landowners and the
prospect of increased tax revenue, but these windfall profits come at the cost
of the data centers’ power demand flat profile essentially controlling our
grid. They will represent half to two thirds of the power used in Virginia by
2030. We have granted data center companies who care nothing for us control over
our environment. We are now getting ready to build 7 gas fired electricity
generation facilities to serve them. The data centers will degrade our land and water
resources and increase power and water costs for all Virginians.
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