Chesapeake Bay Cleanup

In 2014 the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement was signed by the six Chesapeake Bay Watershed states (Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia) and the District of the Columbia. In this agreement the EPA set a limit for release of nutrients into the Chesapeake Bay watershed. At that time this limit was referred to as the TMDL, but now is called the Chesapeake Bay Clean Water Blueprint. Under the most recent revision to the blueprint, the Chesapeake Bay model called for about 25% reduction in nitrogen, 24% reduction in phosphorus and 20 % reduction in sediment from the “base case 2011 levels.”

 These reductions in pollution were then partitioned to the various states and river basins based on the Chesapeake Bay computer modeling tools and monitoring data. Each year, Virginia, as well as the other Bay jurisdictions, report information about implemented best management practices (BMPs) to the EPA, which takes the information and runs it through the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model. The results estimate the amount of nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment that would make it to the Bay under average conditions. By comparing the model results across time, EPA then evaluated the expected collective impact of these actions under the implementation plans. 

They also continued to measure the nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment in the water. The Chesapeake Bay Program in partnership with USGS, monitors stream flow, nutrients and sediment in the rivers throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed. There are 85 sites in the network; currently being monitored; however not all of the monitors have been operating since the beginning of monitoring in the 1980's. Only 31 of these sites date back that far and can be used to examine long term trends. 

The Chesapeake Bay Watershed agreement ran for 10 years and we are now coming to the end- it will expire in December 2025. Unfortunately, we have neither met the goal of installing the required BMP’s (best management practices) to meet the Watershed Implementation plans, but the measured data is discouraging, too.  As of 2023, the BMPs in place across the watershed are estimated to achieve 57% of the nitrogen reductions, 67% of the phosphorus reductions and 100% of the sediment reductions needed to meet water quality standards when compared to the 2009 loads.

from Bay-Barometer-2023-2024_Web.pdf

Here’s a look at the long-term trends, measured since 1985, and the short-term trends, those from 2015 through 2024 by the USGS at their monitoring stations as reported by the Chesapeake Bay Program:

• Susquehanna River (measured at Conowingo Dam): The long- and short-term trends improved for both nitrogen and phosphorus.
• Potomac River (measured at Chain Bridge in the District of Columbia): The long- and short-term trends improved for nitrogen. The long-term trend improved for phosphorus, but there was no clear short-term trend.
• James River (measured upstream of Richmond): The long- term trend improved for nitrogen and phosphorus, but the short-term trend degraded for both nutrients. Any BMPs installed under the WIP in the last 10 years was overwhelmed by other factors.
• Rappahannock River (measured near Fredericksburg, VA): The long-term trend improved for nitrogen, but the short-term trend was degrading. The long- and short-term phosphorus trend was degrading.
• Appomattox River, (measured near Matoaca,VA): The long- and short-term trends were degrading for both nutrients.
• Pamunkey River (measured near Hanover, VA): There was no clear long-term nitrogen trend, but the short-term nitrogen trend improved. The long-term phosphorus trend was degrading; there was no short-term phosphorus trend.
• Mattaponi River (measured near Beulahville, VA): The long-term nitrogen trend improved, but there was no short-term trend. There was no clear long-term phosphorus trend, but the short-term trend was degrading.
• Patuxent River (measured at Bowie, MD): The long- and short-term nitrogen trends were improving. The long-term phosphorus trend improved, but there was no short-term phosphorus trend.
• Choptank River (measured near Greensboro, MD): No long-term nitrogen trend, but the short-term trend was improving. Long- and short-term phosphorus trends are degrading.

Overall, the billions of dollars spent on implementing BMPs under the Watershed Implementation Plans (WIP) seems to not have accomplished very much. Even with an epic fail,  no government program ever dies. Right now the Chesapeake Bay Program is planning for the future of Bay restoration, expanding goals and such. Maybe we need to take another look at the Chesapeake Bay Model that was the basis for the WIPs and see where we went wrong before we create a permanent program with more layers.

The Chesapeake Bay Program partners recommend that they “should continue to set targets, track progress and be mutually accountable for meeting meaningful science-based goals as specified in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement. As new and growing challenges like increased rainfall, higher temperatures, land use changes and other known or unanticipated factors continue to complicate efforts to meet Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement  goals, it is imperative that the partnership continuously improve its organizational capability to assess, respond, innovate and adapt.”