COP 30

Next month, Brazil will welcome global leaders and representatives to the 30th session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 30). The 30th UN climate conference will take place from 6-21 November 6^th -21^st   2025 in Belém, Brazil. It will bring together world leaders, scientists, non-governmental organizations, and civil society to discuss priority actions to tackle climate change. For 2 weeks, delegates from nations across the globe will convene to discuss the next steps in the ongoing fight against climate change and pretend that it is still possible to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius. It’s not.

COP30 will focus once again on the efforts needed to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, the presentation of new national action plans (NDCs) and the progress on the finance pledges made at the last meeting  COP29. In the runup to the annual meeting the U.N., Climate NGO’s , activists and others have been releasing information, essays and pleas.

Last week, the U.N. announced that “Developing countries” are receiving less than 10%  of the money they need to adapt to increasing extreme weather. The U.N. states that this is “putting lives, livelihoods and entire economies at risk.”  While Brazil is pitching COP30 as the COP of adaptation, focusing on social dimensions, systems transformation and implementation.

However, Bill Gates has just released an essay on climate change, “Three tough truths about climate- What I want everyone at COP30 to know.”  I urge you read the entirety of his thoughts on the topic, but if you do not have time here are some highlights excerpted from his essay.

• Climate change is serious, but we’ve made great progress. We need to keep backing the breakthroughs that will help the world reach zero emissions.
• But to do it we can’t cut funding for health and development—programs that help people stay resilient in the face of climate change.
• It’s time to put human welfare at the center of our climate strategies, which includes improving agriculture and health in poor countries and reducing the premium paid for less CO2 intensive products.

Although climate change will have serious consequences—particularly for people in the poorest countries—it will not lead to humanity’s demise. Unfortunately, the constantly calling climate change an existential threat  is causing much of the climate community to focus too much on near-term emissions goals, and it’s diverting resources from the most effective things we should be doing to improve life in a warming world.

Our chief goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world’s poorest countries. Climate change will hurt poor people wherever they are more than anyone else. The biggest problems for humanity are poverty and disease, just as they always have been. Understanding this will let us focus our limited resources on interventions that will have the greatest impact for the most vulnerable people.

COP30 is taking place at a time when it’s especially important to get the most value out of every dollar spent on helping the poorest. The pool of money available to help them is shrinking as rich countries cut their aid budgets and low-income countries are burdened by debt. 

We have to think rigorously and numerically about how to put the time and money we do have to the best use. In short, climate change, disease, and poverty are all major problems. We should deal with them in proportion to the suffering they cause. And we should use data to maximize the impact of every action we take.

The forecast for global warming has ameliorated 

Mr. Gates argued that we should measure success by our impact on human welfare more than our impact on the global temperature, and that our success relies on putting energy, health, and agriculture at the center of our strategies. He went on to urge that at COP30 and beyond, to make a strategic pivot: prioritize the things that have the greatest impact on human welfare. It’s the best way to ensure that everyone gets a chance to live a healthy and productive life no matter where they’re born, and no matter what kind of climate they’re born into. 

 

Mr. Gates argues that we have indeed "bent the curve" 

On a local level I have realized that with the proliferation of data centers we have no pathway to achieving the climate goals laid out by the Board of County Supervisors. Furthermore, even if we did achieve the stated climate goals, it would  not prevent the climate from changing. We must focus on adaptation, communication and the hardening of all our infrastructure, power, water, roads, buildings and services against the weather. We must protect the most vulnerable in our communities.