Iran’s Teaters on the Edge

 Iran has begun water rationing due to a severe drought and decades of mismanagement, leading to critically low levels in reservoirs. In response to the crisis, authorities have lowered water pressure, implemented nightly cuts in Tehran (before it was announced), and have already started rationing in some cities.

The authorities have also called on people to curb consumption during the day. Water rationing has not yet been reported in other parts of Iran. The Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, has warned that Tehran could face more severe rationing or even evacuation if rainfall does not increase soon, a scenario that could affect the almost 10 million people of Tehran.

The five main reservoirs supplying water to Tehran are at historically low levels, currently holding just 11% of overall capacity. In Mashhad, Iran's second-largest city with 4 million residents, reservoirs have fallen below 3% of their capacity, with three of the four dams supplying the city now out of operation due to lack of water. Nationwide, 10% percent of Iran's reservoirs have run completely dry, and more than 20 dams are holding under 5% of their capacity.

Short-term fixes exist, but experts say fundamental reforms and tough policy decisions are needed to avert a catastrophe. Without rain and swift and effective action it is hard to see how the regime will survive. Attempts at seeding the rain clouds have failed because there was not enough moisture. Iranian officials have not yet presented a concrete plan to tackle the emergency but suggest prayer.

Water scarcity is already fueling local tensions and protests, which could escalate into broader social conflict, especially as rising inflation, unemployment, housing issues, and the high cost of living further erode people’s capacity to cope with yet one more crisis.

Conspiracy theories are once more rampant usually accusing Israel and the U.S. of stealing Iran’s rain clouds. Most recently the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), Mohsen Arbabian claimed in an interview on the Iranian YouTube channel that the U.S. and Israel have been "deliberately diverting clouds" away from Iran for over four decades, alleging that satellite imagery shows altered cloud trajectories. He contrasted the low water levels of Iran’s Lake Urmia now nearly dry with the relatively stable levels of Turkey’s Lake Van as supposed evidence of this manipulation.

This echo’s Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali, head of Iran's Civil Defense Organization, 2018 claim that "Israel and another country in the region have joint teams which work to ensure clouds entering Iranian skies are unable to release rain". Similar claims were made by other officials and experts in the past two years as the drought in Iran worsened. 

However, Reza Haji-Karim, head of Iran’s Water Industry Federation, told the website Didban Iran that the city’s water resources are in decline. “Water rationing should have started much earlier. Right now, 62% of Tehran’s water comes from underground sources, and the level of these aquifers has dropped sharply.”

The crisis, he said, is the result of years of neglecting scientific warnings about groundwater depletion and climate change. “The only way to save Tehran is through a chain of measures – from wastewater recycling and consumption reform to cutting agricultural water use,” he added. Unfortunately for them, despite a decade of warnings they have waited too long.

More than 90% of Iran’s water supply is used for irrigation. Iranian law requires that 85% of food be produced domestically. However, Iran does not have the water and soil resources for that, and nearly 30% of agricultural produce is wasted due to a lack of infrastructure, outdated irrigation practices and misguided crop selection according to Morad Kaviani, Professor of geography and hydro- politics at Kharazmi University.

Iran has been using groundwater reserves at unchecked rates; leading to widespread land subsidence and ecosystem collapse in central Iran and Sistan and Baluchestan to the southeast. Tehran and many other cities have outgrown their supplies, forcing reliance on water transfers from distant aquifers via outdated and poorly maintained infrastructure.

We are going to see unfolding in real time the fate that awaits governments that mismanage water resources. Not just dictatorships, it is common under all forms of government to ignore water resource management when there are competing concerns. However, even in water resource rich areas our cities are running up against the true limits of freshwater on earth.

Lake  Urmia, Iran from NASA