Iran-Will Water Decide the War

In the Middle East Iran is uniquely blessed with a relative abundance of natural water. The Persian Empire thrived due to the abundance of water. Currently, Iran’s annually renewable water resources are estimated at approximately 80 to 110 billion cubic meters (BCM) depending on whether you ask government sources or hydrologists. Long-term averages and internal estimates vary due to the severe and extended current drought, politics and climatic shifts. Renewable resources were 140 BCM in 1999 and have fallen to current levels, a decline of around 30%  in 25 years. 

According to a recent U.N. report, Iran is experiencing "water bankruptcy," a state where societal water demand permanently exceeds sustainable supply. While the average national renewable resource is approximately 89–110 billion cubic meters (BCM) at best, withdrawals frequently exceed the water supply total, leading to the collapse of regional ecosystems. As discussed in an earlier post, approximately 97% of Iran is experiencing severe drought. Over-extraction of groundwater has led to "aquifer death" and land subsidence in major cities. 

Water scarcity is has been fueling local tensions and protests, which could escalate into broader social conflict, especially as the current war is added to rising inflation, unemployment, housing issues, and the high cost of living further erode people’s capacity to cope with yet one more crisis. The protests of early winter met with government crackdowns and reportedly over thirty-thousand  Iranians were killed by their government in recent protests. In addition, over 53,000 people have been arbitrarily detained. 

The "loss" of nearly 30% of Iran's renewable water over the last quarter century is driven by increased evapotranspiration and the reduction in mountain snow pack; and cross border conflicts with Turkey and Afghistan caused by damming the rivers. This past fall Iran had to resort to water rationing (though sometimes indirect by cutting off supply).

Saudi Arabia and Iran represent opposite ends of the spectrum in water management. Saudi Arabia leads the world in desalination capacity and investment in water infrastructure while Iran faces a water crisis that threatens their very existence due to systemic underfunding and mismanagement. Recent official Saudi Arabia data and industry reports indicate that Saudi Arabia’s  installed desalinization capacity has exceeded 9 million m³/day. This is a result of a long term strategic plan involving over $80 billion in investment in water.

While Saudi Arabia has "solved" its scarcity through technology, it faces a security risk: a successful strike on the Jubail desalination plant could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Riyadh within one week. Conversely, Iran's crisis is systemic and environmental, driven by the irreversible depletion of its ancient groundwater reserves and destruction of its ecology while not maintaining or improving their water infrastructure.

The Gulf Cooperation Council states are uniquely exposed to Iran's attacks because they rely on desalination for 70% to 90% of their drinking water. Analysts of the region believe Tehran is targeting these "soft" civilian targets to raise the humanitarian and economic costs for Arab states. Unconfirmed reports from the Economist suggest Iran has also targeted a major desalination plant in Israel which serves as a backbone for the nation’s potable water supply. Beyond water, Iran has successfully halted a fifth of the global LNG (liquified natural gas) supply by striking Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy facility. 

Iran has long threatened to retaliate against any attack with an attack on a  wide range of regional and international targets . They have followed through with that. Following  the U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on industrial areas, ports, water and power infrastructure and tankers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE (including Dubai and Abu Dhabi), Bahrain, and Qatar.

Iran has taken the fight to the next level.  Iran has implemented it’s "Decentralized Mosaic Defense." This strategy uses dispersed, mobile missile launchers and clandestine drone sites to continue to keep their dispersed units and terrorist cells fighting. However, the ability to maintain  control of the population or have a unified strategy could be impaired. Operating a critically failing water system may be beyond the thought or reach of the Mosaic Strategy. 

Tehran's reservoirs are at somewhere around 10% capacity. The Mosaic Defense's focus on "prolonging conflict" and "attrition" will divert the resources needed for urgent water infrastructure repairs. This is likely to accelerate the collapse of complex public services rather than maintaining them. Loss of water might change the balance of power in Iran.